a
Interpretation:
Probability of not requiring replacement of module which was sent on a six month mission.
Concept Introduction:
Probability Distribution Function is a likelihood of an event to occur for discrete random variables. Graphically, it shows how likely variables will fall under the probability area.
b
Interpretation:
Probability of fifth failure is more than one year after devices are placed into service.
Concept Introduction:
Probability Distribution Function is a likelihood of an event to occur for discrete random variables. Graphically, it shows how likely variables will fall under the probability area.
c
Expected time to use all 40 spares.
Concept Introduction:
Probability Distribution Function is a likelihood of an event to occur for discrete random variables. Graphically, it shows how likely variables will fall under the probability area.
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Chapter 13 Solutions
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
- A product engineer has developed the following equation for the cost of a system component: C = (10P)2, where C is the cost in dollars and P is the probability that the component will operate as expected. The system is composed of 3 identical components, all of which must operate for the system to operate. The engineer can spend $254 for the 3 components. What is the largest component probability that can be achieved? (Do not round your intermediate calculations. Round your final answer to 4 decimal places.) Probability 0.8466arrow_forwardAt DataTech Solutions, the reliability of their server systems is a critical factor in maintaining smooth operations. The company knows that the probability of a server experiencing no downtime due to technical issues is 0.95. When a server is functioning smoothly, there is a 0.9 probability that the network performance is also optimal. However, if a server encounters technical problems, the probability of having optimal network performance drops to 0.3. A server is chosen at random for assessment, and its network performance is found to be optimal. What is the updated probability that the server is running without any technical issues?arrow_forwardA weather satellite has an expected life of 10 years from the time it is placed into earth orbit. Determine its probability of no wear-out before each of the following lengths of service. Assume theexponential distribution is appropriate.a. 5 years b. 12 years c. 20 years d. 30 yearsarrow_forward
- A swim club is designing a new pool to replace its old pool. The new pool would need to last for 10 years since the club is planning on relocating after 10 years. A concrete shell would cost $85,000 and last for all 10 years. Another option is to install a vinyl liner that would cost only $70,000 to install. However, the vinyl is not guaranteed to last for all 10 years, and it has a 40% chance of breaking down. Repair of the vinyl would cost $40,000 and would extend the life of the vinyl liner to the 10-year mark. If both options are acceptable to the swim club, which one minimizes cost? Support your answer with drawing a decision tree and provide your calculation.arrow_forwardEmbassy Publishing Company received a six-chapter manuscript for a new college textbook. The editor of the college division is familiar with the manuscript and estimated a 0.7207 probability that the textbook will be successful. If successful, a profit of $850,000 will be realized. If the company decides to publish the textbook and it is unsuccessful, a loss of $150,000 will occur. Before making the decision to accept or reject the manuscript, the editor is considering sending the manuscript out for review. A review process provides either a favorable (F) or an unfavorable (U) evaluation of the manuscript. Past experience with the review process suggests probabilities P(F) = 0.7 and P(U) = 0.3 apply. Let s1 = the textbook is successful, and s2 = the textbook is unsuccessful. The editor's initial probabilities of s1 and s2 will be revised based on whether the review is favorable or unfavorable. The revised probabilities are as follows: P(s1|F) = 0.85 P(s2|F) = 0.15…arrow_forwardA software company recently designed and developed a new service for its customers. However, it needs to decide whether to launch the service next month or wait for six months. The company performs research and discovers the probability of success for both options, along with their potential revenue. It also learns the probability of failure and corresponding losses for each. *Option A: Launching the service next month has a 55% probability of success with potential revenue of $250,000. It has a 45% probability of failure with a potential loss of $125,000.* *Option B: Launching the service in six months has a 65% probability of success with potential revenue of $400,000. It has a 35% probability of failure with a potential loss of $200,000.* Which option should the company pursue?arrow_forward
- Scenario: Imagine you are a physician who has been whose patient has the following matter up to you. The patient has an unusual infection, which lasts for a short time. The infection has a 15% chance of causing permanent brain damage. You may undertake a procedure that will prevent the brain damage from the infection (with 100% probability). However, the procedure itself has a 20% chance of causing brain damage itself. Should you undertake the procedure or not? Question: Identify whether the scenario poses a problem to solve or a decision to be made. Explain HOW and WHY you came to your answer?arrow_forwardAssume that a computer has two 1TB disks, D0 and D1. The Mean Time to Failure (MTTF) ofeach disk is 1M hours.a. If the disk system is configured to have 2TB total storage capacity, when any of the two disksfails, the disk system fails. What is the MTTF of the disk system?b. Mirroring (RAID-1) is a technique can improve the reliability of disk systems by usingredundancy. Each data block will have two identical copies stored in both D0 and D1. Under thisconfiguration, the disk system has only 1TB total storage capacity; but it only fails when bothdisks fail (e.g. when the failed disk is being repaired, the second disk also fails). If the MTTR of afailed disk is 20 hours, what is the MTTF of the disk system now?arrow_forwardAn office manager has received a report from a consultant that includes a section on equipment replacement. The report indicates that scanners have a service life that is normally distributed with a mean of 41 months and a standard deviation of 4 months. On the basis of this information, determine the percentage of scanners that can be expected to fail in the following time periods:a. Before 38 months of serviceb. Between 40 and 45 months of servicec. Within ± 2 months of the mean lifearrow_forward
- Consider a product that is "settled in." Its MTBF distribution has been found to be normal with a mean of 10,000 hours and a standard deviation of 100 hours. Answer the following questions: (a) Calculate the probability of a breakdown before 8,000 hours? (b) Calculate the probability of a breakdown before 9,000 hours? (c) Would you prefer a policy of “preventive maintenance” or a policy of “breakdown maintenance” on this product? Explain your choice.arrow_forwardAn electronic chess game has a useful life that is exponential with a mean of 30 months. Determine each of the following:a. The probability that any given unit will operate for at least (1) 39 months, (2) 48 months,(3) 60 months.arrow_forwardTesla engineering center is trying to decide whether to make or buy a part (#T-63NFT) in its transmission module. Purchasing the part would cost $1.50 each. If they design and produce it themselves, it will result in a per-unit cost of $0.75. However, the design investment would be $50,000. Further, they realize that for this type of part, there is a 30% chance that the part will need to be redesigned at an additional cost of $50,000. Regardless of whether they make or buy the part, Tesla will need 100,000 of these parts. Use decision trees analysis to calculate the expected monetary value (EMV) and make decision. Please draw a decision tree for analysis. What is the cost if Tesla decide to make the part but the part needs to be redesigned? What is the cost if Tesla decide to make the part and the part does not need to be redesigned? What is the EMV if Tesla decide to make the part? What is the EMV if Tesla decide to buy the part? How would the “30% chance for redesign” come from?…arrow_forward
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