MICROECONOMICS
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ISBN: 9780134519494
Author: Acemoglu
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 15, Problem 9P
To determine
Expected value of the gamble.
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You are considering a $500,000 investment in the fast-food industry and have narrowed your choice to either a McDonald’s or a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise. McDonald’s indicates that, based on the location where you are proposing to open a new restaurant, there is a 25 percent probability that aggregate 10-year profits (net of the initial investment) will be $16 million, a 50 percent probability that profits will be $8 million, and a 25 percent probability that profits will be −$1.6 million. The aggregate 10-year profit projections (net of the initial investment) for a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise is $48 million with a 2.5 percent probability, $8 million with a 95 percent probability, and −$48 million with a 2.5 percent probability. Considering both the risk and expected profitability of these two investment opportunities, which is the better investment? Explain carefully.
An investor is considering three strategies for a $1,000 investment. The probable returns are estimated as follows: • Strategy 1: A profit of $10,000 with probability 0.15 and a loss of $1,000 with probability 0.85 • Strategy 2: A profit of $1,000 with probability 0.50, a profit of $500 with probability 0.30, and a loss of $500 with probability 0.20 • Strategy 3: A certain profit of $400 Which strategy has the highest expected profit? Explain why you would or would not advise the investor to adopt this strategy.
Gary likes to gamble. Donna offers to bet him $31 on the outcome of a boat race. If Gary’s boat wins, Donna would give him $31. If Gary’s boat does not win, Gary would give her $31. Gary’s utility function is p1x^21+p2x^22, where p1 and p2 are the probabilities of events 1 and 2 and where x1 and x2 are his wealth if events 1 and 2 occur respectively. Gary’s total wealth is currently only $80 and he believes that the probability that he will win the race is 0.3.
Which of the following is correct? (please submit the number corresponding to the correct answer).
Taking the bet would reduce his expected utility.
Taking the bet would leave his expected utility unchanged.
Taking the bet would increase his expected utility.
There is not enough information to determine whether taking the bet would increase or decrease his expected utility.
The information given in the problem is self-contradictory.
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