EBK OPERATIONS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEM
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ISBN: 8220102805637
Author: Jacobs
Publisher: YUZU
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Chapter 18, Problem 26OQ
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The following table shows the past two years of quarterly sales information. Assume that there are both trend and seasonal factors and that the seasonal cycle is one year.
QUARTER
SALES
1
215
2
240
3
205
4
190
5
160
6
195
7
150
8
140
Use regression and seasonal indexes to forecast quarterly sales for the next year.
Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 1 decimal place.
Amazon finds that sales in July are much greater relative to other months because of the Amazon Prime days in that month.
Assuming that an exponential smoothing model is used for forecasting sales, what should the company best do to make the forecast for the next month (Aug) more reflective of reality? Please pick from the provided options.
F t+1 = αDt + (1-α) Ft
increase value of alpha
decrease value of alpha
stay with the same alpha
decrease the expected forecast for the current month (Ft)
On hearing our forecast, our clients probe - how sure are we about the forecast? Which measure of errror (among those stated below) should we best use to respond?
a.
Root MSE (RMSE)
b.
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
c.
Mean forecast error (Avg. error)
d.
Cumulative forecast error (CFE)
National Standard, Inc. sells radio frequency identification (RFID) tags. Monthly demand for a seven-month period is reported below:
Sales (1000 units)
Forecast
Observation
Month
Yt
Ft
1
February
19
2
March
18
3
April
15
4
May
20
5
June
18
6
July
22
7
August
20
8
September
?
Use Excel to plot the data and forecast September sales using the following methods:
The naïve forecast
A three-month moving average
Exponential smoothing with a smoothing coefficient of α = 0.2, assuming a February forecast of 19
A 3-month weighted moving average, with weights 0.60, 0.3, and 0.1. With 0.6 applied to the most recent past.
Chapter 18 Solutions
EBK OPERATIONS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEM
Ch. 18 - Prob. 1DQCh. 18 - It is a common saying that the only thing certain...Ch. 18 - From the choice of the simple moving average,...Ch. 18 - All forecasting methods using exponential...Ch. 18 - Prob. 5DQCh. 18 - Prob. 6DQCh. 18 - What implications do forecast errors have for the...Ch. 18 - Causal relationships are potentially useful for...Ch. 18 - Let’s say you work for a company that makes...Ch. 18 - Prob. 10DQ
Ch. 18 - Prob. 11DQCh. 18 - What is the term for forecasts used for making...Ch. 18 - Prob. 2OQCh. 18 - Given the following history, use a three-quarter...Ch. 18 - Prob. 4OQCh. 18 - Prob. 5OQCh. 18 - Prob. 6OQCh. 18 - Prob. 7OQCh. 18 - Prob. 8OQCh. 18 - Prob. 9OQCh. 18 - Prob. 10OQCh. 18 - Prob. 11OQCh. 18 - Prob. 12OQCh. 18 - Prob. 13OQCh. 18 - Prob. 14OQCh. 18 - Historical demand for a product is
Using a...Ch. 18 - Prob. 16OQCh. 18 - Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item...Ch. 18 - A particular forecasting model was used to...Ch. 18 - Prob. 19OQCh. 18 - Prob. 20OQCh. 18 - Prob. 21OQCh. 18 - Your manager is trying to determine what...Ch. 18 - After using your forecasting model for six months,...Ch. 18 - Zeus Computer Chips, Inc. used to have major...Ch. 18 - Prob. 25OQCh. 18 - Prob. 26OQCh. 18 - Prob. 27OQCh. 18 - Prob. 28OQCh. 18 - Prob. 29OQCh. 18 - Prob. 30OQCh. 18 - Prob. 31OQCh. 18 - Prob. 32OQCh. 18 - Prob. 33OQCh. 18 - Prob. 34OQCh. 18 - Prob. 35OQCh. 18 - Prob. 36OQCh. 18 - Prob. 37OQCh. 18 - Prob. 38OQCh. 18 - Analytics Exercise: Forecasting Supply Chain...Ch. 18 - Prob. 2AECh. 18 - Prob. 3AECh. 18 - Prob. 4AECh. 18 - Prob. 1PECh. 18 - Prob. 2PECh. 18 - Prob. 3PECh. 18 - Prob. 4PECh. 18 - Prob. 5PECh. 18 - Prob. 6PECh. 18 - Prob. 7PECh. 18 - Prob. 8PECh. 18 - Prob. 9PECh. 18 - Prob. 10PECh. 18 - Prob. 11PECh. 18 - In each of the following, name the term defined or...Ch. 18 - Prob. 13PE
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