Operations and Supply Chain Management
14th Edition
ISBN: 9780078024023
Author: F. Robert Jacobs
Publisher: MCG
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Chapter 18, Problem 28OQ
Summary Introduction
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The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years:
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Demand
6
8
4
9
13
8
11
14
9
13
7
Part 2
Using exponential smoothing with
α
=
0.40
and a forecast for year 1 of
5.0,
provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place).
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Forecast
5.0
enter your response here
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enter your response here
enter your response here
enter your response here
enter your response here
enter your response here
enter your response here
enter your response here
enter your response here
enter your response here
Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third quarter of this year. Note that the 1st quarter is Jan, Feb, and Mar; 2nd quarter Apr, May, Jun; 3rd quarter Jul, Aug, Sep; and 4th quarter Oct, Nov, Dec. (Round final answer to a whole number.)
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Last year
165
185
200
230
240
265
210
200
195
265
290
315
This year
175
200
165
260
260
200
Forecast for the third quarter
Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third quarter of this year. Note that the 1st quarter is January, February, and March; 2nd quarter April, May, June; 3rd quarter July, August, September; and 4th quarter October, November, December.
Chapter 18 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management
Ch. 18 - Prob. 1DQCh. 18 - It is a common saying that the only thing certain...Ch. 18 - From the choice of the simple moving average,...Ch. 18 - All forecasting methods using exponential...Ch. 18 - Prob. 5DQCh. 18 - Prob. 6DQCh. 18 - What implications do forecast errors have for the...Ch. 18 - Causal relationships are potentially useful for...Ch. 18 - Let’s say you work for a company that makes...Ch. 18 - Prob. 10DQ
Ch. 18 - Prob. 11DQCh. 18 - What is the term for forecasts used for making...Ch. 18 - Prob. 2OQCh. 18 - Given the following history, use a three-quarter...Ch. 18 - Prob. 4OQCh. 18 - Prob. 5OQCh. 18 - Prob. 6OQCh. 18 - Prob. 7OQCh. 18 - Prob. 8OQCh. 18 - Prob. 9OQCh. 18 - Prob. 10OQCh. 18 - Prob. 11OQCh. 18 - Prob. 12OQCh. 18 - Prob. 13OQCh. 18 - Prob. 14OQCh. 18 - Historical demand for a product is
Using a...Ch. 18 - Prob. 16OQCh. 18 - Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item...Ch. 18 - A particular forecasting model was used to...Ch. 18 - Prob. 19OQCh. 18 - Prob. 20OQCh. 18 - Prob. 21OQCh. 18 - Your manager is trying to determine what...Ch. 18 - After using your forecasting model for six months,...Ch. 18 - Zeus Computer Chips, Inc. used to have major...Ch. 18 - Prob. 25OQCh. 18 - Prob. 26OQCh. 18 - Prob. 27OQCh. 18 - Prob. 28OQCh. 18 - Prob. 29OQCh. 18 - Prob. 30OQCh. 18 - Prob. 31OQCh. 18 - Prob. 32OQCh. 18 - Prob. 33OQCh. 18 - Prob. 34OQCh. 18 - Prob. 35OQCh. 18 - Prob. 36OQCh. 18 - Prob. 37OQCh. 18 - Prob. 38OQCh. 18 - Analytics Exercise: Forecasting Supply Chain...Ch. 18 - Prob. 2AECh. 18 - Prob. 3AECh. 18 - Prob. 4AECh. 18 - Prob. 1PECh. 18 - Prob. 2PECh. 18 - Prob. 3PECh. 18 - Prob. 4PECh. 18 - Prob. 5PECh. 18 - Prob. 6PECh. 18 - Prob. 7PECh. 18 - Prob. 8PECh. 18 - Prob. 9PECh. 18 - Prob. 10PECh. 18 - Prob. 11PECh. 18 - In each of the following, name the term defined or...Ch. 18 - Prob. 13PE
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?arrow_forwardScenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?arrow_forwardScenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?arrow_forward
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.arrow_forwardScenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?arrow_forwardScenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?arrow_forward
- How can you evaluate the accuracy of a forecast model? explain in detailarrow_forwardGiven the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third quarter of this year. Note: the 1st quarter is Jan, Feb, and Mar; 2nd quarter id Apr. May, Jun; 3rd quarter Jul, Aug, Sep; 4th quarter Oct, Nov, Dec. JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC LAST YEAR 145 165 170 210 220 245 190 180 175 245 270 295 THIS YEAR 145 170 180 235 275 225 What is the forecast for the third quarter?arrow_forwardUsing linear regression analysis, what would you estimate demand to be for each month next year? Month Forecast January February March April May June July August September October November Decemberarrow_forward
- The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 7 9 6 10 12 7 12 12 9 9 8 Part 2 Using exponential smoothing with α = 0.30 and a forecast for year 1 of 6.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Part 3 Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers).arrow_forwardExplain quantitative forecast methods?arrow_forwardGiven the following demand data, Period Demand 1 47 2 44 3 47 4 44 5 48 a. Compute a weighted average forecast using a weight of 0.4 for the most recent period, 0.3 for the next most recent, 0.2 for the next, and 0.1 for the next. (Round all your answers to two decimal points.) b. If the actual demand for period 6 is 48, forecast demand for period 7 using the same weights as in part a. Forecast Period 7 ______arrow_forward
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