EBK PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS ANALYSIS
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781478628385
Author: Olsen
Publisher: WAVELAND PRESS (ECONTENT)
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Chapter 2, Problem 52AP
A
Summary Introduction
To determine: The value that appears to minimize the MAD, by experimenting different values of
Introduction:
B
Summary Introduction
To determine: The value that appears to minimize the MSE, by experimenting different values of
Introduction: Forecasting is the main function of predicting the future using the information available for decision making. It is a mechanism for planning decisions based on the predicted information.
C
Summary Introduction
To determine: The value that appears to minimize the MAPe, by experimenting different values of
Introduction: Forecasting is the main function of predicting the future using the information available for decision making. It is a mechanism for planning decisions based on the predicted information.
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The number of patients coming to the Healthy Start Maternity clinic has been increasing steadilyover the past eight months. You are provided with some historical data as follows:Month Clinic attendance(in thousands)1 3.42 3.93 4.54 5.05 5.86 5.97 6.58 6.7b. Use simple linear regression to forecast annual demand for months 9 and 10 by using thetabular method to:-i. Derive the values for the intercept and slope. ii. Derive the linear regression equation. iii. Plot the linear regression line. iv. Develop a forecast of the clinic attendance for months 9 and 10.
A particular forecasting model was used to forecast a six-month period. Here are the forecasts and actual demands that resulted:
FORECAST
ACTUAL
April
256
206
May
328
252
June
403
330
July
353
305
August
378
324
September
452
395
a. Find the tracking signal for each month. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your answers to the nearest whole number.)
A particular forecasting model was used to forecast a six-month period. Here are the forecasts and actual demands that resulted:
FORECAST
ACTUAL
April
256
206
May
328
252
June
403
330
July
353
305
August
378
324
September
452
395
a. Find the tracking signal for each month. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your answers to the nearest whole number.)
Analyst at Ayamas Food Corporation Sdn. Bhd. company about forecasting monthly demand for inventory from warehouse. The analyst suggest that Ayamas consider using exponential smoothing with smoothing constants 0.2 and 0.3. Ayamas decides to compare the accuracy of the smoothing constants for the most recent second quarter of the year. Below is the data for the most recent quarter.
Month
Sales
(Thousands of RM)
December
90
January
100
February
98
March
120
April
110
May
1 15
June
100
a. Calculate the exponential smoothing forecast for periods January to June. Use a = 0.2 and = 0.3 (14 Marks)
b. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecast. Based on MAD, which forecasting method is the best. (4 Marks)
c) Forecast July use the smallest mean absolute deviation. (2 Marks)
Chapter 2 Solutions
EBK PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS ANALYSIS
Ch. 2.4 - Prob. 1PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 2PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 3PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 4PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 5PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 6PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 7PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 8PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 9PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 2.6 - Prob. 11PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 12PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 13PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 14PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 15PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 16PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 17PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 18PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 19PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 20PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 21PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 22PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 23PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 24PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 25PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 26PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 27PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 28PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 29PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 30PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 31PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 32PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 33PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 34PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 35PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 36PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 37PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 38PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 42PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 43PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 44PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 45PCh. 2 - Prob. 47APCh. 2 - Prob. 48APCh. 2 - Prob. 49APCh. 2 - Prob. 50APCh. 2 - Prob. 51APCh. 2 - Prob. 52APCh. 2 - Prob. 53APCh. 2 - Prob. 54APCh. 2 - Prob. 55APCh. 2 - Prob. 56APCh. 2 - Prob. 57APCh. 2 - Prob. 58AP
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