Statistics for Management and Economics (Book Only)
11th Edition
ISBN: 9781337296946
Author: Gerald Keller
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Chapter 20.5, Problem 38E
a:
To determine
Calculate the next year value.
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A researcher has a sample of 6 annual observations {94, 104, 102, 99, 111 and 107} for the CPI in country Z for the period 2015 to 2020, and wants to forecast CPI for the years 2021, 2022 and 2023. The researcher uses 3 different forecasting models: A, B and C. Model A is an AR(1) model with no drift and with an estimated autoregressive coefficient = 0.7. Model B is a MA(1) model with no constant and with an estimated MA coefficient = -0.4 (note the minus !). Model C is a random walk model with no drift. The error terms over the 2015-2020 period were estimated to have the values: {3, -1, 2, 4, -3, 1}.
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Chapter 20 Solutions
Statistics for Management and Economics (Book Only)
Ch. 20.2 - Prob. 1ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 2ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 3ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 4ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 5ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 6ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 7ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 8ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 9ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 10E
Ch. 20.2 - Prob. 11ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 12ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 13ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 14ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 15ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 16ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 17ECh. 20.3 - Prob. 18ECh. 20.3 - Prob. 19ECh. 20.3 - Prob. 20ECh. 20.3 - Prob. 21ECh. 20.3 - Prob. 22ECh. 20.3 - Prob. 23ECh. 20.3 - Prob. 24ECh. 20.3 - Prob. 25ECh. 20.3 - Prob. 26ECh. 20.3 - Prob. 27ECh. 20.3 - Prob. 28ECh. 20.3 - Xr20-29 A manufacturer of ski equipment is in the...Ch. 20.4 - Prob. 30ECh. 20.4 - Prob. 31ECh. 20.4 - Prob. 32ECh. 20.4 - Prob. 33ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 34ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 35ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 36ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 37ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 38ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 39ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 40ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 41ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 42ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 43ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 44ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 45ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 46ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 47ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 48ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 49ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 50ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 51ECh. 20.5 - Prob. 52E
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Forecasting: Exponential Smoothing, MSE; Author: Joshua Emmanuel;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_HN0wOKDd0;License: Standard Youtube License