OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT W/ CNCT+
12th Edition
ISBN: 9781259574931
Author: Stevenson
Publisher: MCG CUSTOM
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Concept explainers
Videos
Textbook Question
Chapter 3, Problem 31P
A textbook publishing company has compiled data on total annual sales of its business texts for the preceding nine years:
a. Using an appropriate model,
b. Prepare a control chart for the forecast errors using the original data Use 2s limits.
c. Suppose actual sales for the next five years turn out as follows.
Is the forecast performing adequately? Explain.
Expert Solution & Answer
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solution
Students have asked these similar questions
Exercise # 2 –Calculating MADt, Revised MADt,Error,and the Revised Error :Has the Forecast Improved ? How much has it improved in % terms ?
Franklin Henry forecasts demand for an auditing and accounting services group, for an estate planning group ,and a business consulting group.His group forecasts for the preceding six-month(M) period, which were made six months prior to that time, are each based on a level, patternless projection.The following data table shows these forecasts(F) and the actual demand (AD) for each group :
Estate Planning Auditing and Accounting Business Consulting
(Client –days) (Client –days) (Client –days)
M AD F M AD F M AD F
1 120 130 1 260 230 1 120 120
2 80 130…
The table shows the values found in the error analysis. What method of forecasting would be best to use? What is the forecasted value?
MSE
forecast for week 13
Time Series
1.08
14.76
3-week MA
3.04
13.67
exp smoothing
11.04
9.5
Group of answer choices
A.) Time Series, forecasted value = 14.76
B.) 3-week MA, forecasted value = 13.67
C.) exp smoothing, forecasted value = 9.5
D.) Time Series, forecasted value = 1.08
E.) 3-week MA, forecasted value = 3.04
F.) exp smoothing, forecasted value = 11.04
i need this to study stop canceling my questions
A check-processing center uses exponential smooth- ing to forecast the number of incoming checks each month. The number of checks received in June was 40 million, while the fore- cast was 42 million. A smoothing constant of .2 is used.
a) What is the forecast for July?b) If the center received 45 million checks in July, what would be
the forecast for August?c) Why might this be an inappropriate forecasting method for the situation
Chapter 3 Solutions
OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT W/ CNCT+
Ch. 3.15 - Prob. 1.1RQCh. 3.15 - Prob. 1.2RQCh. 3.15 - Prob. 1.3RQCh. 3 - What are the main advantage that quantitative...Ch. 3 - What are some of the consequences of poor...Ch. 3 - List the specific weaknesses of each of these...Ch. 3 - Prob. 4DRQCh. 3 - What is the purpose of establishing control limits...Ch. 3 - What factors would you consider in deciding...Ch. 3 - Contrast the use of MAD and MSE in evaluating...
Ch. 3 - What advantages as a forecasting tool does...Ch. 3 - How does the number of periods in a moving average...Ch. 3 - What factors enter into the choice of a value for...Ch. 3 - Prob. 11DRQCh. 3 - Explain how using a centered moving average with a...Ch. 3 - Contrast the terms sales and demand.Ch. 3 - Contrast the reactive and proactive approaches to...Ch. 3 - Explain how flexibility in production systems...Ch. 3 - How is forecasting in the context of a supply...Ch. 3 - Which type of forecasting approach, qualitative or...Ch. 3 - Prob. 18DRQCh. 3 - Choose the type of forecasting technique (survey,...Ch. 3 - Explain the trade-off between responsiveness and...Ch. 3 - Who needs to be involved in preparing forecasts?Ch. 3 - How has technology had an impact on forecasting?Ch. 3 - It has been said that forecasting using...Ch. 3 - What capability would an organization have to have...Ch. 3 - When a new business is started, or a patent idea...Ch. 3 - Discuss how you would manage a poor forecast.Ch. 3 - Omar has beard from some of his customers that...Ch. 3 - Give three examples of unethical conduct involving...Ch. 3 - A commercial baker, has recorded sales (in dozens)...Ch. 3 - National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency...Ch. 3 - A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to...Ch. 3 - An electrical contractors records during the last...Ch. 3 - A cosmetics manufacturer s marketing department...Ch. 3 - Prob. 6PCh. 3 - Freight car loadings ova a 12-year period at a...Ch. 3 - Air travel on Mountain Airline for the past 18...Ch. 3 - a. Obtain the linear trend equation for the...Ch. 3 - After plotting demand for four periods, an...Ch. 3 - A manager of a store that sells and installs spas...Ch. 3 - The following equation summarizes the trend...Ch. 3 - Compute seasonal relatives for this data the SA...Ch. 3 - A tourist center is open on weekends (Friday,...Ch. 3 - The manager of a fashionable restaurant open...Ch. 3 - Obtain estimates of daily relatives for the number...Ch. 3 - A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of 2...Ch. 3 - New car sales for a dealer in Cook County,...Ch. 3 - The following table shows a tool and die companys...Ch. 3 - An analyst must decide between two different...Ch. 3 - Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2)...Ch. 3 - Two independent methods of forecasting based on...Ch. 3 - Long-Life Insurance has developed a linear model...Ch. 3 - Timely Transport provides local delivery service...Ch. 3 - The manager of a seafood restaurant was asked to...Ch. 3 - The following data were collected during a study...Ch. 3 - Lovely Lawns Inc., intends to use sales of lawn...Ch. 3 - The manager of a travel agency has been using a...Ch. 3 - Refer to the data in problem 22 a. Compute a...Ch. 3 - The classified department of a monthly magazine...Ch. 3 - A textbook publishing company has compiled data on...Ch. 3 - A manager has just receded an valuation from an...Ch. 3 - A manager uses this equation to predict demand for...Ch. 3 - A manager uses a trend equation plus quarterly...Ch. 3 - ML MANUFACTURING ML Manufacturing makes various...Ch. 3 - ML MANUFACTURING ML Manufacturing makes various...Ch. 3 - HIGHLINE FINANCIAL SERVICES, LTD. Highline...
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?arrow_forwardThe Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?arrow_forwardThe owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?arrow_forward
- The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.arrow_forward2)Auto sales over a 4-month period were forecasted as follows: 89, 98, 105, and 97. The actual results over the 4-month period were as follows: 92, 96, 101, and 100. What was the MAD of the 4-month forecast? (use an excel sheet to make all calaculations and show formulas used in excel)arrow_forwardIf a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would have been the forecast for May? The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of operation: MONTH COMPLAINTS January 37 February 48 March 84 April 96 May 114 June 148 If a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would have been the forecast for May? 114 121 76 73arrow_forward
- The following table contains the number of complaints received in the department store for first 6 months of operation:Month Jan Feb Mar April May JuneComplaints 36 45 81 90 108 144a. Calculate the forecast for the month from April through June using 3 month moving average? b. What will be the forecast for the month of July using 3 month moving average? c. If actual sales for the month of July turned out to be 145, what will be theforecast for August month using 3 month moving Average?arrow_forwardA check processing center uses exponential smoothing to forecast the number of incoming chewcks each moth. the number of checks received in june was 40 million while the forecast was 42 mil. A smoothing constabt of 0,15 is used. a)Using exponential smoothing and given a the forecast for the month of july=41.7 million checks received b) If the check-processing center received 46 million checks in the month of July then using exponential smoothing and given a the forecast for the month of august= [__] million checks recievedarrow_forward17. Statistical and observational methods, where adequate data or settings are available in which to apply them, are superior to survey methods of forecasting. Select one O True O Falsearrow_forward
- Plot the table and give at least three observations from the plot according to the given data Weeks Calls 3 month Weighted Moving Average Error =Abs (Actual -Forecasted) (Sum of Absolute percent error) 1 50 2 35 3 25 4 40 31.42857143 8.571428571 21.42857143 5 45 35 10 22.22222222 6 35 40.71428571 5.714285714 16.32653061 7 20 38.57142857 18.57142857 92.85714286 8 30 27.85714286 2.142857143 7.142857143 9 35 27.85714286 7.142857143 20.40816327 10 20 31.42857143 11.42857143 57.14285714 11 15 25.71428571 10.71428571 71.42857143 12 40 19.28571429 20.71428571 51.78571429 13 55 30 25 45.45454545 14 35 45 10 28.57142857 15 25 41.42857143 16.42857143 65.71428571 16 55 32.14285714 22.85714286 41.55844156 17 55 43.57142857 11.42857143 20.77922078 18 40 50.71428571…arrow_forwardJean and Dinah had been in business for two years producing umbrellas to be sold to the cruise ship passengers when they docked. They found that they are constantly out of umbrellas and had to rush producions which has resulted in the increase of their production cost. Jean has a nephew who is enrolled in the UWIOC and he advised her to prepare forecasted qualities using the sales that they made over the past months. The data below represents sales for the last 9 months. In order to assist Jean and Dinah you are asked to; a. plot the data on a graph showing the trend b. determine the equation of the trend line c. predict sales for month 10 and 11. Months Sales 1 44 2 52 3 50 4 54 5 55 6 55 7 60 8 56 9 62arrow_forwardThe moving average forecasting method is typically bestfor products:a) Functional b) Innovativec) Mature d) Newarrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,
Contemporary MarketingMarketingISBN:9780357033777Author:Louis E. Boone, David L. KurtzPublisher:Cengage Learning
MarketingMarketingISBN:9780357033791Author:Pride, William MPublisher:South Western Educational Publishing
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,
Contemporary Marketing
Marketing
ISBN:9780357033777
Author:Louis E. Boone, David L. Kurtz
Publisher:Cengage Learning
Marketing
Marketing
ISBN:9780357033791
Author:Pride, William M
Publisher:South Western Educational Publishing
Single Exponential Smoothing & Weighted Moving Average Time Series Forecasting; Author: Matt Macarty;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjETktmL4Kg;License: Standard YouTube License, CC-BY
Introduction to Forecasting - with Examples; Author: Dr. Bharatendra Rai;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98K7AG32qv8;License: Standard Youtube License