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By Jay Heizer Barry Render Operations Management, Sustainability and Supply Chain Management (11th) [Paperback]
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781269261630
Author: Jay Heizer
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 4, Problem 42P
CEO John Goodale, at Southern Illinois Power and Light, has been collecting data on demand for electric power in its western subregion for only the past 2 years. Those data are shown in the table below.
To plan for expansion and to arrange to borrow power from neighboring utilities during peak periods, Goodale needs to be able to forecast demand for each month next year. However, the standard
| DEMAND IN MEGAWATTS | |||
| MONTH | LAST YEAR | THIS YEAR | |
| January | 5 | 17 | |
| February | 6 | 14 | |
| March | 10 | 20 | |
| April | 13 | 23 | |
| May | 18 | 30 | |
| June | 15 | 38 | |
| July | 23 | 44 | |
| August | 26 | 41 | |
| September | 21 | 33 | |
| October | 15 | 23 | |
| November | 12 | 26 | |
| December | 14 | 17 | |
- a. What are the weaknesses of the standard forecasting techniques as applied to this set of data?
- b. Because known models are not appropriate here, propose your own approach to forecasting. Although there is no perfect solution to tackling data such as these (in other words, there are no 100% right or wrong answers), justify your model.
- c. Forecast demand for each month next year using the model you propose.
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Students have asked these similar questions
Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2) were used to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are as follows:
PREDICTED DEMAND
Period
Demand
F1
F2
1
68
66
66
2
75
68
68
3
70
72
70
4
74
71
72
5
69
72
74
6
72
70
76
7
80
71
78
8
78
74
80
Click here for the Excel Data File
Compute MAD for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your answers to 1 decimal place.)
b. Compute the MSE for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)
c. In practice, either MAD or MSE would be employed to compute forecast errors. What factors might lead a manager to choose one rather than the other?
d. Compute MAPE for each data set. Which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)
Two forecasting models were used to predict the future value of a time series. These are shown in the accompanying table, together with the actual values.
Forecast Value Ft
Model 1
Model 2
Actual Yt
7.5
6.3
6
6.3
6.7
6.6
5.4
7.1
7.3
8.2
7.5
9.4
Compute MAD and MPE for each model and determine which was more accurate.
Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2) were used to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are as follows:
PREDICTED DEMAND
Period
Demand
F1
F2
1
68
61
60
2
75
67
66
3
70
75
70
4
74
69
67
5
69
74
72
6
72
67
78
7
80
74
78
8
78
76
80
Click here for the Excel Data File
a. Compute MAD for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)
Chapter 4 Solutions
By Jay Heizer Barry Render Operations Management, Sustainability and Supply Chain Management (11th) [Paperback]
Ch. 4 - What is a qualitative foretasting model, and when...Ch. 4 - Identify and briefly describe the two general...Ch. 4 - Identify the three forecasting time horizons....Ch. 4 - Briefly describe the steps that are used to...Ch. 4 - A skeptical manager asks what medium-range...Ch. 4 - Explain why such forecasting devices as moving...Ch. 4 - What is the basic difference between a weighted...Ch. 4 - What three methods are used to determine the...Ch. 4 - Research and briefly describe the Delphi...Ch. 4 - What is the primary difference between a...
Ch. 4 - Define time series.Ch. 4 - What effect does the value of the smoothing...Ch. 4 - Explain the value of seasonal indices in...Ch. 4 - Which forecasting technique can place the most...Ch. 4 - In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.Ch. 4 - What is the purpose of a tracking signal?Ch. 4 - Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the...Ch. 4 - What is the difference between a dependent and an...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries that are affected by...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries in which demand...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21DQCh. 4 - The following gives the number of pints of type B...Ch. 4 - 4.2 a. Plot the above data on a graph. Do you...Ch. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years...Ch. 4 - A check-processing center uses exponential...Ch. 4 - The Carbondale Hospital is considering the...Ch. 4 - The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were...Ch. 4 - The actual demand for the patients at Omaha...Ch. 4 - Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last...Ch. 4 - Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop...Ch. 4 - Data collected on the yearly registrations for a...Ch. 4 - Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual and forecast demand...Ch. 4 - As you can see in the following table, demand for...Ch. 4 - Following are two weekly forecasts made by two...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 138. a. Use a...Ch. 4 - Solved example 4.1 Sales of Volkswagens popular...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1. Using smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual (At) and forecast...Ch. 4 - Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and...Ch. 4 - Question 4.20 Resolve Problem 4.19 with =.1 and ...Ch. 4 - Question 4.21 Refer to the trend-adjusted...Ch. 4 - Question 4.22 Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the...Ch. 4 - Question 4.23 Sales of quilt covers at Bud Baniss...Ch. 4 - Question 4.24 Mark Gershon, owner of a musical...Ch. 4 - Question 4.25 The following gives the number of...Ch. 4 - Prob. 26PCh. 4 - Question 4.27 George Kyparisis owns a company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.28 Attendance at Orlandos newest...Ch. 4 - Question 4.29 North Dakota Electric Company...Ch. 4 - Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting...Ch. 4 - Prob. 31PCh. 4 - Question 4.32 The following data relate the sales...Ch. 4 - Question 4.33 The number of internal disk drives...Ch. 4 - Question 4.34 The number of auto accidents in...Ch. 4 - Question 4.35 Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock,...Ch. 4 - Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman,...Ch. 4 - Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickmans...Ch. 4 - Question 4.38 City government has collected the...Ch. 4 - Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist,...Ch. 4 - Using the data in Problem 4.39, apply linear...Ch. 4 - Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in...Ch. 4 - CEO John Goodale, at Southern Illinois Power and...Ch. 4 - Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North...Ch. 4 - Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.43, forecast...Ch. 4 - The following are monthly actual and forecast...Ch. 4 - Thirteen students entered the business program at...Ch. 4 - Question 4.47 Storrs Cycles has just started...Ch. 4 - Question 4.48 Dave Fletcher, the general manager...Ch. 4 - Question 4.49 Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud...Ch. 4 - Case study Southwestern University: (B) This...Ch. 4 - Case study Southwestern University: (B) This...Ch. 4 - Southwestern University: (B) This integrated case...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...
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