EBK CORPORATE FINANCE
EBK CORPORATE FINANCE
4th Edition
ISBN: 9780134202778
Author: DeMarzo
Publisher: PEARSON CUSTOM PUB.(CONSIGNMENT)
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Chapter 5, Problem 32P

Suppose the current one-year interest rate is 6%. One year from now, you believe the economy will start to slow and the one-year interest rate will fall to 5%. In two years, you expect the economy to be in the midst of a recession, causing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates drastically and the one-year interest rate to fall to 2%. The one-year interest rate will then rise to 3% the following year, and continue to rise by 1 % per year until it returns to 6%, where it will remain from then on.

  1. a. If you were certain regard ng these future interest rate changes, what two-year interest rate would be consistent with these expectations?
  2. b. What current term structure of interest rates, for terms of 1 to 10 years, would be consistent with these expectations?
  3. c. Plot the yield curve in this case. How does the one-year interest rate compare to the 10-year interest rate?
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First National Bank is doing some scenario analysis. It believes that its source of funds (the Federal Reserve) will soon increase the cost of loans. In fact, the cost of making loans is expected to change from the current 2 percent interest to either 3 percent or 4 percent interest in the next year. There will be no change in its $2,000,000 income at the 2 percent interest level, but net income will fall to $1,000,000 if interest rates increase to 3 percent and decrease to $100,000 if the interest rates increase to 4 percent . Finally, National predicts a 10 percent probability of a decrease to 2 percent interest rate, a 50 percent probability of a 3 percent interest rate, and a 40 percent probability of an increase to 4 percent interest rate.
The two-year interest rate is 10.4%, and the expected annual inflation rate is 5.2%. a. What is the expected real interest rate? b-1. If the expected rate of inflation suddenly rises to 7.2%, what does Fisher's theory say about how the real interest rate will change? b-2. If the expected rate of inflation suddenly rises to 7.2%, what will be the new nominal rate? Complete this question by entering your answers in the tabs below. Req A Req B1 Req B2 What is the expected real interest rate? Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Enter your answer as a percent rounded to 2 decimal places. Expected real interest rate %

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EBK CORPORATE FINANCE

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