Project Analysis You are discussing a project analysis with a coworker. The project involves real options, such as expanding the project if successful, or abandoning the project if it fails. Your coworker makes the following statement: “This analysis is ridiculous. We looked at expanding or abandoning the project in two years, but there are many other options we should consider. For example, we could expand in one year, and expand further in two years. Or we could expand in one year, and abandon the project in two years. There are too many options for us to examine. Because of this, anything this analysis would give us is worthless.” How would you evaluate this statement? Considering that with any capital budgeting project there are an infinite number of real options, when do you stop the option analysis on an individual project?
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- The J.R. Ryland Computer Company is considering a plant expansion to enable the company to begin production of a new computer product. The companys president must determine whether to make the expansion a medium- or large-scale project. Demand for the new product is uncertain, which for planning purposes may be low demand, medium demand, or high demand. The probability estimates for demand are 0.20, 0.50, and 0.30, respectively. Letting x and y indicate the annual profit in thousands of dollars, the firms planners developed the following profit forecasts for the medium-and large-scale expansion projects. a. Compute the expected value for the profit associated with the two expansion alternatives. Which decision is preferred for the objective of maximizing the expected profit? b. Compute the variance for the profit associated with the two expansion alternatives. Which decision is preferred for the objective of minimizing the risk or uncertainty?arrow_forwardThe Siler Construction Company is about to bid on a new industrial construction project. To formulate their bid, the company needs to estimate the time required for the project. Based on past experience, management expects that the project will require at least 24 months, and could take as long as 48 months if there are complications. The most likely scenario is that the project will require 30 months. a. Assume that the actual time for the project can be approximated using a triangular probability distribution. What is the probability that the project will take less than 30 months? b. What is the probability that the project will take between 28 and 32 months? c. To submit a competitive bid, the company believes that if the project takes more than 36 months, then the company will lose money on the project. Management does not want to bid on the project if there is greater than a 25% chance that they will lose money on this project. Should the company bid on this project?arrow_forwardGina Ripley, president of Dearing Company, is considering the purchase of a computer-aided manufacturing system. The annual net cash benefits and savings associated with the system are described as follows: The system will cost 9,000,000 and last 10 years. The companys cost of capital is 12 percent. Required: 1. Calculate the payback period for the system. Assume that the company has a policy of only accepting projects with a payback of five years or less. Would the system be acquired? 2. Calculate the NPV and IRR for the project. Should the system be purchasedeven if it does not meet the payback criterion? 3. The project manager reviewed the projected cash flows and pointed out that two items had been missed. First, the system would have a salvage value, net of any tax effects, of 1,000,000 at the end of 10 years. Second, the increased quality and delivery performance would allow the company to increase its market share by 20 percent. This would produce an additional annual net benefit of 300,000. Recalculate the payback period, NPV, and IRR given this new information. (For the IRR computation, initially ignore salvage value.) Does the decision change? Suppose that the salvage value is only half what is projected. Does this make a difference in the outcome? Does salvage value have any real bearing on the companys decision?arrow_forward
- Austins cell phone manufacturer wants to upgrade their product mix to encompass an exciting new feature on their cell phone. This would require a new high-tech machine. You are excited about his new project and are recommending the purchase to your board of directors. Here is the information you have compiled in order to complete this recommendation: According to the information, the project will last 10 years and require an initial investment of $800,000, depreciated with straight-line over the life of the project until the final value is zero. The firms tax rate is 30% and the required rate of return is 12%. You believe that the variable cost and sales volume may be as much as 10% higher or lower than the initial estimate. Your boss understands the risks but asks you to explain the alternatives in a brief memo to the board, Write a memo to the Board of Directors objectively weighing out the pros and cons of this project and make your recommendation(s).arrow_forwardFriedman Company is considering installing a new IT system. The cost of the new system is estimated to be 2,250,000, but it would produce after-tax savings of 450,000 per year in labor costs. The estimated life of the new system is 10 years, with no salvage value expected. Intrigued by the possibility of saving 450,000 per year and having a more reliable information system, the president of Friedman has asked for an analysis of the projects economic viability. All capital projects are required to earn at least the firms cost of capital, which is 12 percent. Required: 1. Calculate the projects internal rate of return. Should the company acquire the new IT system? 2. Suppose that savings are less than claimed. Calculate the minimum annual cash savings that must be realized for the project to earn a rate equal to the firms cost of capital. Comment on the safety margin that exists, if any. 3. Suppose that the life of the IT system is overestimated by two years. Repeat Requirements 1 and 2 under this assumption. Comment on the usefulness of this information.arrow_forwardNew-Project Analysis The Campbell Company is considering adding a robotic paint sprayer to its production line. The sprayer’s base price is $1,080,000, and it would cost another $22,500 to install it. The machine falls into the MACRS 3-year class, and it would be sold after 3 years for $605,000. The MACRS rates for the first 3 years are 0.3333, 0.4445, and 0.1481. The machine would require an increase in net working capital (inventory) of $15,500. The sprayer would not change revenues, but it is expected to save the firm $380,000 per year in before-tax operating costs, mainly labor. Campbell’s marginal tax rate is 35%. What is the Year-0 cash flow? What are the net operating cash flows in Years 1, 2, and 3? What is the additional Year-3 cash flow (i.e., the after-tax salvage and the return of working capital)? If the project’s cost of capital is 12%, should the machine be purchased?arrow_forward
- Refer to Exercise 19.11. 1. Compute the payback period for each project. Assume that the manager of the clinic accepts only projects with a payback period of three years or less. Offer some reasons why this may be a rational strategy even though the NPV computed in Exercise 19.11 may indicate otherwise. 2. Compute the accounting rate of return for each project.arrow_forwardYour company is considering undertaking a project to expand an existing product line. The required rate of return on the project is 8% and the maximum allowable payback period is 3 years. Time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cash Flow $(10,000) $2,400 $4,800 $3,200 $3,200 $2,800 $2,400 Evaluate the project using each of the following methods. For each method, should the project be accepted or rejected? Justify your answer based on the method used to evaluate the project’s cash flows. Payback period Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Simple Rate of Return Net Present Valuearrow_forwardQuestion TwoYou are evaluating two possible projects for your company, both of which involve the development of a new kind of computer mouse. The projects are mutually exclusive, meaning that the company can invest in only one of them. Both projects require an initial investment of $32 million to be made in each of the next three years. Sales and profits will begin in the 4th year, and this is where the two projects differ. Version A, which is more innovative, is expected to have sales in year 4 of $24 million and cash profits of $7.8 million. Profits are expected to increase 6% annually. Version B, which is less innovative but cheaper to produce, is expected to have the same sales in year 4, but profits of $8.9 million. Profits for version B are expected to increase only 4% annually. Assume for simplicity that all cashflows occur at the end of the year. The cost of capital for both projects is 12%.a) Which is the better project? How much is each project worth? b) You have the…arrow_forward
- A firm requires a payback period of 2 years or less. According to the payback period rule, which of the following projects is acceptable to this firm? Year Project A Project B Project C 0 -$86 -$128 -$77 1 30 40 100 2 40 20 -50 3 50 10 4 60 130 a. If you use payback period as a decision rule, you would choose (No answer given) Project A Project B Project Carrow_forwardHasty Drums, Inc. is considering two independent projects and is using the internal rate of return technique to make a choice. Project X requires an initial investment of $80,000; it will have cash inflows at the end of each of the next five years of $25,000. Project Z requires an initial investment of $120,000; it has cash inflows of $40,000 at the end of each of the next four years. What are the IRRs of each project? Ace Corporation is considering expanding its operations. If it expands, its current accounts are expected to change. Cash will increase by $20,000, accounts receivable by $40,000, and inventories by $60,000. At the same time accounts payable are going to increase by $50,000, accruals by $10,000, and long-term debt by $100,000. What will be the change in net working capital? Zebra Corporation plans to sell an existing asset for $21,000. The asset cost $10,000 and it was being depreciated under MACRS using a five-year recovery period. Until now, it has been…arrow_forwardSuppose you are a small business owner and are considering investing in a new project that has an expected cash flow of $100,000 in year 1, $150,000 in year 2, and $250,000 in year 3. The initial investment required for the project is $400,000. You have a required rate of return of 10% for this project. Is it a good investment? Justify your investment decision. b) After further careful evaluation, you ascertain that the required rate of return for a similar industry project is 7%. Re-evaluate the investment opportunity using the new required rate of return. Does your recommendation change?arrow_forward
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