Statistics for Management and Economics (Book Only)
11th Edition
ISBN: 9781337296946
Author: Gerald Keller
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Chapter 7.1, Problem 12E
To determine
Calculate the probability.
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A property owner is faced with a choice of:
A large-scale investment to improve her flats. This could produce a substantial pay-off in terms of increased revenue net of costs but will require an investment of 1.4 million pesos. After extensive market research it is considered that there is a 40% chance that a pay-off of 2.5million will be obtained, but there is a 60% chance that it will be only 800,000 pesos.
A smaller scale project to re-decorate her premises. At 500,000 pesos this is less costly but will produce a lower pay-off. Research data suggests a 30% chance of a gain of one million pesos but a 70% chance of being only 500,000 pesos.
Continuing the present operation without change. It will cost nothing but neither will it produce any pay-off. Clients will be unhappy and it will become harder to rent the flats out when they become free.
What is the best alternative? Use decision tree analysis.
An investor considers investing $17,000 in the stock market. He believes that the probability is 0.22 that the economy will improve, 0.42 that it will stay the same, and 0.36 that it will deteriorate. Further, if the economy improves, he expects his investment to grow to $23,000, but it can also go down to $11,000 if the economy deteriorates. If the economy stays the same, his investment will stay at $17,000. What is the expected value of his investment?
A manager must decide how many machines of a certain type to buy. The machines will be used to manufacture a new gear for which there is increased demand. The manager has narrowed the decision to two alternatives: buy one machine or buy two. If only one machine is purchased and demand is more than it can handle, a second machine can be purchased at a later time. However, the cost per machine would be lower if the two machines were purchased at the same time. The estimated probability of low demand is .30, and the estimated probability of high demand is .70. The net present value associated with the purchase of two machines initially is 950,000 if demand is low and 1,300,000 if demand is high.
The net present value for one machine and low demand is 900,000. If demand is high, there are three options. One option is to do nothing, which would have a net present value of 1,000,000. A second option is to subcontract; that would have a net present value of 1,400,000. The third option is to…
Chapter 7 Solutions
Statistics for Management and Economics (Book Only)
Ch. 7.1 - Prob. 1ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 2ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 3ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 4ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 5ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 6ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 7ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 8ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 9ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 10E
Ch. 7.1 - Prob. 11ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 12ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 13ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 14ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 15ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 16ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 17ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 18ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 19ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 20ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 21ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 22ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 23ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 24ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 25ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 26ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 27ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 28ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 29ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 30ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 31ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 32ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 33ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 34ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 35ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 36ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 37ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 38ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 39ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 40ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 41ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 42ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 43ECh. 7.1 - Prob. 44ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 45ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 46ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 47ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 48ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 49ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 50ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 51ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 52ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 53ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 54ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 55ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 56ECh. 7.2 - Canadians who visit the United Sates often buy...Ch. 7.2 - Prob. 58ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 59ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 60ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 61ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 62ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 63ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 64ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 65ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 66ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 67ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 68ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 69ECh. 7.2 - Prob. 70ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 71ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 72ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 73ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 74ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 75ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 76ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 77ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 78ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 79ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 80ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 81ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 82ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 84ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 85ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 86ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 87ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 88ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 89ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 90ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 91ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 93ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 94ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 95ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 96ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 97ECh. 7.3 - Prob. 99ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 100ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 101ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 102ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 103ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 104ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 105ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 106ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 107ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 108ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 110ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 112ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 113ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 114ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 115ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 116ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 117ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 118ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 119ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 120ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 121ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 122ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 123ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 124ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 125ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 126ECh. 7.4 - Prob. 127ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 128ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 129ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 130ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 131ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 132ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 133ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 134ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 135ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 136ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 137ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 138ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 139ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 140ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 141ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 142ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 143ECh. 7.5 - Prob. 144ECh. 7 - Prob. 145CECh. 7 - Prob. 146CECh. 7 - Prob. 147CECh. 7 - Prob. 148CECh. 7 - Prob. 149CECh. 7 - Prob. 150CECh. 7 - Prob. 151CECh. 7 - Prob. 152CECh. 7 - Prob. 153CECh. 7 - Prob. 154CECh. 7 - Prob. 155CECh. 7 - Prob. 156CECh. 7 - Prob. 157CECh. 7 - Prob. 158CECh. 7 - Prob. 159CECh. 7 - Prob. 160CECh. 7 - Prob. 161CECh. 7 - Prob. 162CECh. 7 - Prob. 163CECh. 7 - Prob. 164CECh. 7 - Prob. 165CECh. 7 - Prob. 166CECh. 7 - Prob. 167CECh. 7 - Prob. 168CECh. 7 - Prob. 169CECh. 7 - Prob. 170CE
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