EBK MACROECONOMICS (FOURTH EDITION)
4th Edition
ISBN: 9780393616125
Author: Jones
Publisher: YUZU
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Question
Chapter 9, Problem 5E
(a)
To determine
Calculate the slope of the
(b)
To determine
Check which is the better option while consider the short-run output rather than inflation rate.
(c)
To determine
Check which is the better option while consider the inflation rate rather than short-run output.
(d)
To determine
The trade-off in terms of Phillips curve.
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Larry Summers, Professor of Economics at Harvard and ex-Treasury Secretary and Chief Economist at the World Bank, has been making lots of waves of late. He's expressed his fears that inflation would come in stronger than the Fed expected - he
was right -- and now he's predicting that there's
factoring in new trends like:
40% chance of a recession ahead as the Fed tightens to reduce inflationary pressures and higher wages force cutbacks in business output. Come up with your own forecast of the next year or two,
o supply chains issues (that seem to be easing, by the way)
• Fed policy that will turn contractionary
o a new $1.7 trillion infrastructure bill to be passed by Congresss
o continuation of the rising trend of worker retirements
o possible weakening of the dollar alongside rising tensions with Russia.
You observe the following short-run Phillips curve for the economy:
T = 9.2 -0.26(u - 6.5%) + v.
There are no supply shocks to the economy, and the actual unemployment rate is 6.5% (and will stay
that way for the foreseeable future).
What will expected inflation be next year? Write your answer as a percentage, and round at one (1)
decimal. Do not write the percentage sign. If you need more information to answer the question, write
"O".
You're a pricing analyst for a manufacturing firm. You are tasked with predicting how average prices will change over the next
quarter to help your manager decide how to change her prices.
How might you find the best estimate of the likely inflation rate?
For the best estimate,
obtain the average forecast of many economists.
look to the financial markets.
analyze surveys of people's inflation expectations.
rely on the forecast of an eminent economist.
Chapter 9 Solutions
EBK MACROECONOMICS (FOURTH EDITION)
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- Consider an economy producing at Ý, = 0 and ū = 1/4. The inflation rate at t = 0 is To = 3% . Now, suppose the economy is hit by an inflation shock õ1 = ö2 = 3%. The shock is temporary and ōg = 0 for t > 2. For the duration of the inflation shock, the economy is in a recession with Ý1 = Ý2 = -1%, which ends with Ý 3 = 0. Based on this information, you know that the inflation rate 73 i , percent.arrow_forwardThe Federal Reserve uses an inflation target of 2-3%; most economists agree that the US natural rate of unemployment is around 4.5%. Imagine that you are a policy analyst observing the government and the Federal Reserve. You determine that inflation is 1% (very low) and unemployment is hovering around 6.5% (quite high.) The Federal Reserve responds by cutting interest rates and beginning to buy government bonds in open-market operations. The government takes the position that the only way out of a recession is to decrease government spending and passes a budget with very little spending (this is called "taking austerity measures"). What effects would the Fed's actions have, if taken alone? What effects would the government's actions have, if taken alone? What do you predict will occur when both actions are taken? Who do you think is making the right suggestion?arrow_forwardSuppose the Phillips curve is and the Aggregate Demand curve is Tt = Tt1+3ytot Yt = at 5(πt - 0.02) where at = Ot = 0 in the steady state. (a) Calculate the steady state values of output and inflation in this economy. (b) Calculate the short- and long-run responses of the economy to the following shocks (use a table to report your answers, as well as show them graphically on the AD-AS graph, as well as plot inflation and output against time): (1) A one-time decrease in ot to -0.05. (2) A one-time increase in at to 0.05 (at returns to 0 thereafter). (3) A permanent decrease in the Fed's inflation target from 0.02 to 0.arrow_forward
- The country of Freeland has an aggregate demand curve determined by the equation M + U = 6% Freeland also has a potential growth rate of 2%. Using this information, draw Freeland's aggregate demand (AD) and long-run aggregate supply (LRAS) curves on the graph. Inflation rate (%) 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -2 -1 0 LRAS 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 Real GDP growth rate (%) prevailing inflation rate: What is the prevailing inflation rate in Freeland? AD What is the prevailing real GDP growth rate? prevailing real GDP growth rate: 7 8 9 10 % %arrow_forwardtrue or false Suppose that the central bank lost credibility in the sense that people no longer believe its inflation target (that is, inflation expectations are not `anchored’). In this case, both short-run output and long-run output do not increase in response to a permanently higher inflation target.arrow_forwardConsider an economy producing at Yo = 0 and ū = 1/4. The inflation rate at t = 0 is TO = 3%. Now, suppose the economy is hit by an inflation shock ō1 = ō2 = 3%. The shock is temporary and ōt = 0 for t > 2. For the duration of the inflation shock, the economy is in a recession with Y = Ý2 = -1%, which ends with Y3 = 0. Based on this information, you know that the inflation rate T3 is percent. 8.5 8.5 (with margin: 0)arrow_forward
- Which of the following is a policy tool used to combat demand-pull inflation? a) Contractionary fiscal policy b) Expansionary monetary policyarrow_forwardWhy are inflation expectations so important to modern monetary policy? What are several ways that central banks try to manage inflation expectations?arrow_forwardThe following graph plots the short-run and long-run Phillips curves (SRPC and LRPC, respectively) for an economy currently experiencing long-run macroeconomic equilibrium at point A, where the natural unemployment rate is 6% and the inflation rate is 8% per year. Suppose that the central bank for this economy has decided that inflation is too high and thus wants to decrease the inflation rate by 6 percentage points per year. A reduction in the rate of inflation is known as (deflation/disinflation) . To reduce inflation from 8% to 2% in the short run, the central bank would have to accept an unemployment rate of ____% True or False: If people have rational expectations, the economy may not have to endure an unemployment rate as high as predicted by the short-run Phillips curve. -True -Falsearrow_forward
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