Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains, Student Value Edition Plus MyLab Operations Management with Pearson eText -- Access Card Package (12th Edition)
12th Edition
ISBN: 9780134855424
Author: Lee J. Krajewski, Manoj K. Malhotra, Larry P. Ritzman
Publisher: PEARSON
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Question
Chapter A, Problem 18P
Summary Introduction
Interpretation: A decision needs to be taken by B. M., chief engineer of Offsh Chemicals, whether to build a new processing unit, based on an experimental technology, and a net profit of
Expert Solution & Answer
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solutionStudents have asked these similar questions
A decision maker's worst option has an expected value of $1,000, and her best option has an expected value of $3,000. With perfect information, the expected value would be $5,000. What is the expected value of perfect information?
Maverick Ltd is considering whether to develop and market a new product. Development the costs are estimated to be R180 000, and there is a 0.75 probability that development effort will be successful and a 0.25 probability that the development effort will be unsuccessful. If the development is successful, the product will be marketed and it is estimated that:a. If the product is very successful profits will be R540 000;b. If the product is moderately successful profits will be R100 000;c. If the product is a failure, there will be a loss of R400 000.Each of the above profit and loss calculations is after taking into account the development costs of R180 000. The estimated probabilities of each of the above events are as follows:d. Very successful 40%e. Moderately successful 30%f. Failure 30%Required3.1. Construct a decision tree to illustrate the scenario above (7)3.2. Calculate the Expected Value (8)
A new minor league baseball team is coming to town and the owners have decided to build a new stadium, either small or large. The success of the team with regard to ticket sales will be either high or low with probabilities of 0.75 and 0.25, respectively. If demand for tickets is high, the large stadium would provide a payoff of approximately $20 million. If ticket sales are low, the loss on the large stadium would be $5 million. If a small stadium is constructed, and ticket sales are low, the payoff is $500,000 after deducting the cost of construction. If ticket sales are high, the team can choose to build an upper deck, or to maintain the existing facility. Expanding the stadium in this scenario has a payoff of $10 million, whereas maintaining the same number of seats has a payoff of only $3 million.
a. Draw a decision tree for this problem.
b. What should management do to achieve the highest expected payoff?
Chapter A Solutions
Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains, Student Value Edition Plus MyLab Operations Management with Pearson eText -- Access Card Package (12th Edition)
Ch. A - Mary Williams, owner of Williams Products, is...Ch. A - Prob. 2PCh. A - An interactive television service that costs $10...Ch. A - A restaurant is considering adding fresh brook...Ch. A - Spartan Castings must implement a manufacturing...Ch. A - A news clipping service is considering...Ch. A - Prob. 7PCh. A - Techno Corporation is currently manufacturing an...Ch. A - The Tri-County Generation and Transmission...Ch. A - Prob. 10P
Ch. A - Tri-County G&T sells 150,000 MWh per year of...Ch. A - The Forsite Company is screening three ideas for...Ch. A - Prob. 13PCh. A - Prob. 14PCh. A - Janice Gould of Krebs Consulting is in the process...Ch. A - Build-Rite Construction has received favorable...Ch. A - Prob. 17PCh. A - Prob. 18PCh. A - Prob. 20PCh. A - Prob. 21PCh. A - Prob. 22PCh. A - Prob. 24P
Knowledge Booster
Similar questions
- Howard Weiss, Inc., is considering building a sensitive new radiation scanning device. His managers believe that ther is a probability of 0.40 that the ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product. Weiss's expected profit is $50,000; If weiss adds an assembley line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $15,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition adn ATR does not produce a competitive product, weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, weiss expects a loss of $100,000 a) Expected value for the Add Assembly Line option=$____arrow_forwardPeter Martin will help his brother who wants to open a grocery store. Peter initially believes there is a 50-50 chance that his brother's food store will be successful. Peter is considering doing market research. Based on historical data, there is a 0.8 probability that the market research will be favorable given a successful store. Furthermore, there is a 0.7 probability that the market research will be unfavorable given an unsuccessful store. a) If the market research is favorable, what is Peter's revised probability of a successful store for his brother?b) If the market survey is unfavorable, what is Peter's revised probability of a successful store for his brother?c) If the initial probability of a successful store is 0.60 (instead of 0.50), find the probabilities of (a) and (b).arrow_forwardThere are two outcomes: a good market and a bad market. , The decision table is presented below. There are four alternatives: do nothing, build a small plant, build a medium-size plant, and build a large plant. PAYOFFS Outcomes Alternatives Good market Bad market Do nothing $0 $0 Small Plant $30,000 ($10,000) Medium Plant $100,000 ($15,000) Large Plant $200,000 ($30,000) So you are to workout the Maximax, the Maximin, the Equally likely the Hurwicz based on a .11 probability and the regret using minimax. In words give the answers to these questions: What are your answers under: Answers Best payoff option for maximax is Common Stock Best payoff option for maximin is doing nothing Best payoff option for equally likely is Common Stock Best payoff option for Hurwicz is doing nothing Put a Bold Box around the word Outcomes Keep the Bad Market amounts in Red Ink Make the type style Ariel and Size 12 in Blackarrow_forward
- The Hard to Beat Bakery is deciding whether to buy or repair an existing oven thatthey have been using for over 8 years. If they elect to repair, it will cost the entity$950,000 and either of two outcomes is likely: 1. A 20% probability it will perform okay and generate revenues of$10,000,000, or 2. An 80% chance that it will be partially restored and generate revenue of$2,000,000. If on the other hand however, they purchase a new oven, they can either buy animported oven for $3,500,000 or they can buy a locally made one for $2,200,000.If the elect to purchase the imported oven, production will earn them revenues of$15,550,000, but if they buy the locally made oven, there is a 70% likelihood thatit perform as expected and generate revenues of $12,000,000; and a 30% chancethat it will not and generate revenues of $6,000,000. Required: 1. Draw a decision tree of this problem and determine the expected value.2. Advise the management of the Bakery on how to proceed.3. Briefly discuss the…arrow_forwarda business owner is planning to strategies his company's growth, he can either buy , rent, or lease a new factory depending on how the business is doing. He was given the following payoff table based on whether the business is doing good or business is slow. Aletnative Business Doing Goood Business Slow Buy 90 -10 Rent 70 40 Lease 60 55 The probability of business doing good is 0.7 and the probability of slow business is 0.3. Using Lapace method, the strategy is: A. Do nothing B. Lease C. Rent D. Buyarrow_forwardTim has to decide whether or not to build a new processing facility. If the new facility succeeds, the company will realize a profit of $328,000. If it fails, Southalta Electronics will lose $162,000. At this time, Tim estimates there is a 55% chance that the new facility will succeed. The other option is to first build a pilot facility and then decide whether to build the full-scale new processing facility. The pilot facility would cost $64,000 to build. Tim estimates a 65% chance that the pilot facility will succeed. If the pilot facility succeeds, there is a 90% probability that the full-scale facility, if it is built, will also succeed. If the pilot facility fails, there is only a 20% chance that the full-scale facility, if it is built, will succeed. (solve in the decision tree) What is the EVPI (Expected Value of Perfect Information) for Tim in this situation? What is the EVSI (Expected Value of Sample Information) for Tim in this situation?arrow_forward
- A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated probabilities being 0.40, 0.35, and 0.25, respectively. A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just $13,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $15,000; it can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of $30,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $25,000 and can be expanded to medium size to earn $50,000 or to large size to earn $100,000. A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated $50,000 if demand is low and earn $100,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of $125,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $175,000. If a large facility is built and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $180,000. If demand is average for the large…arrow_forwardOption 2: Raise prices by 50%. If this occurs, there is a 75% chance that an Entrepreneur will set up in competition this year. The board’s estimate of its annual profit in this situation would be as follows: 2A: With new competitor 2B: Without new competitor Probability Profit (Sh.) Probability Profit (Sh.) 0.25 150,000 0.5 200,000 0.5 120,000 0.3 150,000 0.25 80,000 0.2 100,000 Option 3: Expand the car park quickly at a cost of Sh. 50,000 keeping prices theSame. The profits are then estimated to be like 2B above, except that the probabilities would be 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1 respectively. Required: Draw a decision tree for the above problem, including all the relevant data. Using expected values analyze the decision tree and recommend the best option to the owners of the car park.arrow_forwardJeffrey Mogul is a Hollywood film producer, and he is currently evaluating a script by a new screenwriter and director, Betty Jo Thurston. Jeffrey knows that the probability of a film by a new director being a success is about .10 and that the probability it will flop is .90. The studio accounting department estimates that if this film is a hit, it will make $25 million in profit, whereas if it is a box office failure, it will lose $8 million. Jeffrey would like to hire noted film critic Dick Roper to read the script and assess its chances of success. Roper is generally able to correctly predict a successful film 70% of the time and correctly predict an unsuccessful film 80% of the time. Roper wants a fee of $1 million. Determine whether Roper should be hired, the strategy Mogul should follow if Roper is hired, and the expected value.arrow_forward
- A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated probabilities being 0.25, 0.40, and 0.35, respectively. A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just $18,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000; it can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of $60,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn 75,000 and can be expanded to medium size to earn $60,000 or to large size to earn $125,000. A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated $25,000 if demand is low and earn $140,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of $150,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $145,000. If a large facility is built and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $220,000. If demand is average for the…arrow_forwardA manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated probabilities being 0.25, 0.40, and 0.35, respectively. A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just $18,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000; it can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of $60,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000 and can be expanded to medium size to earn $60,000 or to large size to earn $125,000. A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated $25,000 if demand is low and earn $140,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of $150,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $145,000. If a large facility is built and demand is high, earningsare expected to be $220,000. If demand is average for the large…arrow_forwardRobert Ragsdale is trying to decide if he should purchase repair and replacement insurance on a new laptop computer that he is planning to purchase. The policy costs $400.00 at the time of purchase, and over the next three years will replace the laptop if it is stolen or repair it if it is broken. The following table contains the total costs of this decision. Which alternative is best, according to each of the following decision criteria? Maximin Maximax Laplace Minimax regretarrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,