Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains, Student Value Edition Plus MyLab Operations Management with Pearson eText -- Access Card Package (12th Edition)
12th Edition
ISBN: 9780134855424
Author: Lee J. Krajewski, Manoj K. Malhotra, Larry P. Ritzman
Publisher: PEARSON
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Question
Chapter A, Problem 22P
Summary Introduction
Interpretation: The expected payoff for the best alternative is to be determined by using the decision tree.
Concept Introduction:
Decision tree can be defined as the decision support tool or tree like decision model which is used to represents the series of decisions and their objective way to evaluate the alterative.
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Given is a decision payoff table and a Sub Decision Payoff Table. Use Minimax Regret as an evaluation criterion to evaluate alternatives.
Future Demand
Alternatives
Low
Moderate
High
Small Facility
14
12
13
Medium Facility
-1
17
23
Large Facility
-5
11
29
Alternatives
Worst Regrets
Small Facility
?
Medium Facility
?
Large Facility
?
a) The worst regrets for alternative Small Facility is b) The worst regrets for alternative Medium Facility is c) The worst regrets for alternative Large Facility is d) The best course of action or decision by using Minimax Regret is to select ( ) facility
Payoff Table
Decision Alternatives
Demand
Low
Medium
High
Small, d1
400
500
600
Medium, d2
100
600
800
Large, d3
-300
400
1200
1). If nothing is known about the demand probabilities, what are the recommended decision using the Maximax
(optimistic), Maximin (pessimistic) and Equally Likely?
2). If P(low) = 0.20, P(medium) = 0.35, and P(high) = 0.45. What is the recommended decision using the expected monetary value approach?
3). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?
Please answer a, b and c.
Question four
Bakery Products is considering the introduction of a new line of products. In order to produce the new line, the bakery is considering either a major or minor renovation of the current plant. Bakery Products has the option of not developing the new line at all. The decision alternatives are shown in the payoff table below as well as the states of nature and probabilities. Payoffs are profits;
Before making the final decision, Bakery Products can pay a market research firm $500.00 to survey consumer attitudes towards the company's products. The results can be either “vibrant” or “limp”. The reliability of the company, based on past performance, is given below.
That is: P(V|F) = 0.80;P(V|N) = 0.60;P(V|U) = 0.30; P(L|F) = 0.20;P(L|N) = 0.40;P(L|U) = 0.70;
a) Computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places.
b) After you have computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places, construct the appropriate decision tree…
Chapter A Solutions
Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains, Student Value Edition Plus MyLab Operations Management with Pearson eText -- Access Card Package (12th Edition)
Ch. A - Mary Williams, owner of Williams Products, is...Ch. A - Prob. 2PCh. A - An interactive television service that costs $10...Ch. A - A restaurant is considering adding fresh brook...Ch. A - Spartan Castings must implement a manufacturing...Ch. A - A news clipping service is considering...Ch. A - Prob. 7PCh. A - Techno Corporation is currently manufacturing an...Ch. A - The Tri-County Generation and Transmission...Ch. A - Prob. 10P
Ch. A - Tri-County G&T sells 150,000 MWh per year of...Ch. A - The Forsite Company is screening three ideas for...Ch. A - Prob. 13PCh. A - Prob. 14PCh. A - Janice Gould of Krebs Consulting is in the process...Ch. A - Build-Rite Construction has received favorable...Ch. A - Prob. 17PCh. A - Prob. 18PCh. A - Prob. 20PCh. A - Prob. 21PCh. A - Prob. 22PCh. A - Prob. 24P
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