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Exam PA – Section 3.4 Question 3
Business Problem
You are a consultant for a regional hospital outside of a major metropolitan area. Due to
growing concerns of the hospital nearing full capacity, the hospital has come to your consulting
firm to determine the number of visits a patient is likely to make in the upcoming 2 weeks given
the medical information they are allowed to provide, which is heavily restricted due to the
Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act. Note that the hospital is strongly concerned
with interpretation. Doctors feel that they should be able to communicate the results to
hospital administrators.
Specific Task
You decide that the best course of action is to model the data using GLM. To kick things
off, you investigate the quality of the provided dataset. However, the time sensitive
nature of this project means you are not able to spend time fixing or cleaning any errors
or issues that might be present in the data. In carrying out due diligence, you choose to
at least note any concerns you find.
(a)
Comment on your findings. ANSWER:
Your supervisor recommends the gaussian family with identity link to model the number
of hospital visits. However, you decide to proceed with the Poisson family and log link.
(b)
Critique your supervisor’s recommendation in light of your modeling choices.
ANSWER:
You decide to run a stepwise selection procedure to determine what features should
belong in your GLM.
(c)
(i)
Recommend a specific stepwise procedure. Justify your recommendation.
(ii)
Provide details on the coefficients of both the full GLM and the resulting stepwise model.
ANSWER:
Code is provided to obtain log-likelihoods in order to assess the two models that have
been created. You consider it as part of your analysis in choosing a final model.
(d)
Recommend your model of choice. Justify your recommendation. ANSWER:
Code is provided to aid with interpreting your chosen model from (d) by exponentiating
its coefficient estimates. (e)
(i)
Explain the reason for exponentiating the estimates.
(ii)
List several of the most impactful predictors.
(iii)
Describe the impact of each predictor mentioned in (ii) in terms of model
predictors.
ANSWER:
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