C207 Task 2 A Peyton

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Western Governors University *

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C207

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Management

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Jan 9, 2024

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C207 Task 2 Decision Tree Analysis Amanda Peyton, RN, BSN Western Governors University MJ Gallo September 19, 2023
A. Which is the more profitable possible outcome: introducing a new drug, using an existing drug for new purposes, or continuing with the current drug? B. The relevant data values required for your decision tree analysis, includes the following: Possible plan Develop new drug line Exploit the current drug line for new applications Continue with current line (Do nothing) Profits $0.63/ unit profit $0.48/ unit profit $0.84/ unit profit Probabilities (favorable market) 71% success 63% success 81% success Probabilities (unfavorable) 29% success 37% success 19% success Demand/ payoff (favorable market) 4341 units/ $2734.83 5475 units/ $2628.00 730 units/ $613.20 Demand/ payoff (unfavorable) 1205 units/ $759.15 1807 units/ $867.36 241 units/ $202.44 Payoff (Favorable) $1941.73 $1655.64 $496.69 Payoff (Unfavorable) $220.15 $320.92 $38.46 Expected Value $2161.88 $1976.56 $535.15 C. 1. Complete a decision tree diagram (Attached separately) Decision tree analysis is the appropriate analysis technique for this business because the decision tree analysis offers a comparison of the profitability of each of the plans the business in considering and considers the possibility of a favorable or unfavorable market. D. The role of probabilities is to help with necessary calculations of the profits possible for each option. It is the projected success of the choice. This cannot be considered alone, because there is a possibility that the choice with the highest probability of success might not be the most profitable option. In this scenario, the probability of success for each feasible option of the drug company is considered, in both a favorable and an unfavorable market: to develop a new drug, exploit the existing drug line for new applications, or continue with current drug line without changes. The role of demand for each branch is also necessary to calculate the anticipated profit. The demand is the expected quantity of sales in units for each possibility, in both a favorable and an unfavorable market The demand estimates will help to determine what choice will be the most profitable. They are limited because they cannot stand alone for decision making, because the product with the highest demand when considered individually may not be the
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