C207 Task 2 A Peyton
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C207 Task 2 –
Decision Tree Analysis Amanda Peyton, RN, BSN Western Governors University MJ Gallo September 19, 2023
A.
Which is the more profitable possible outcome: introducing a new drug, using an existing drug for new purposes, or continuing with the current drug? B.
The relevant data values required for your decision tree analysis, includes the following: Possible plan Develop new drug line Exploit the current drug line for new applications Continue with current line (Do nothing) Profits $0.63/ unit profit $0.48/ unit profit $0.84/ unit profit Probabilities (favorable market) 71% success 63% success 81% success Probabilities (unfavorable) 29% success 37% success 19% success Demand/ payoff (favorable market) 4341 units/ $2734.83 5475 units/ $2628.00 730 units/ $613.20 Demand/ payoff (unfavorable) 1205 units/ $759.15 1807 units/ $867.36 241 units/ $202.44 Payoff (Favorable) $1941.73 $1655.64 $496.69 Payoff (Unfavorable) $220.15 $320.92 $38.46 Expected Value $2161.88 $1976.56 $535.15 C. 1.
Complete a decision tree diagram
(Attached separately)
Decision tree analysis is the appropriate analysis technique for this business because the decision tree analysis offers a comparison of the profitability of each of the plans the business in considering and considers the possibility of a favorable or unfavorable market. D. The role of probabilities is to help with necessary calculations of the profits possible for each option. It is the projected success of the choice. This cannot be considered alone, because there is a possibility that the choice with the highest probability of success might not be the most profitable option. In this scenario, the probability of success for each feasible option of the drug company is considered, in both a favorable and an unfavorable market: to develop a new drug, exploit the existing drug line for new applications, or continue with current drug line without changes. The role of demand for each branch is also necessary to calculate the anticipated profit. The demand is the expected quantity of sales in units for each possibility, in both a favorable and an unfavorable market The demand estimates will help to determine what choice will be the most profitable. They are limited because they cannot stand alone for decision making, because the product with the highest demand when considered individually may not be the
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Related Questions
Please answer a, b and c.
Question four
Bakery Products is considering the introduction of a new line of products. In order to produce the new line, the bakery is considering either a major or minor renovation of the current plant. Bakery Products has the option of not developing the new line at all. The decision alternatives are shown in the payoff table below as well as the states of nature and probabilities. Payoffs are profits;
Before making the final decision, Bakery Products can pay a market research firm $500.00 to survey consumer attitudes towards the company's products. The results can be either “vibrant” or “limp”. The reliability of the company, based on past performance, is given below.
That is: P(V|F) = 0.80;P(V|N) = 0.60;P(V|U) = 0.30; P(L|F) = 0.20;P(L|N) = 0.40;P(L|U) = 0.70;
a) Computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places.
b) After you have computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places, construct the appropriate decision tree…
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Prior to the purchase of the Ground, Freight, and other non-express-based services, Federal Express had reorganized all of its major indirect spend in
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Future Demand
Alternatives
Low
Moderate
High
Small Facility
31
18
15
Medium Facility
20
35
21
Large Facility
-10
31
35
Alternatives
Worst Regrets
Small Facility
?
Medium Facility
?
Large Facility
?
a) The worst regrets for alternative Small Facility is ( ) b) The worst regrets for alternative Medium Facility is ( ) c) The worst regrets for alternative Large Facility is ( ) d) The best course of action or decision by using Minimax Regret is to select ( ) facility
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Given is a decision payoff table and a Sub Decision Payoff Table. Use Minimax Regret as an evaluation criterion to evaluate alternatives.
Alternatives
Low
Future Demand
Moderate
High
Small Facility
52
42
43
Medium Facility
50
49
49
Large Facility
-15
38
Alternatives
Small Facility
Medium Facility
Large Facility
Worst Regrets
?
?
?
a) The worst regrets for alternative Small Facility is Blank 1
b) The worst regrets for alternative Medium Facility is Blank 2
c) The worst regrets for alternative Large Facility is Blank 3
d) The best course of action or decision by using Minimax Regret is to select Blank 4 facility
51
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ANSWER THE FOLLOWING:
1. Statement of the problem
2. Causes of the problem
3. Decision criteria and alternative solutions
3. Recommended solution, implementations, and justifications
Case study:
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draw the decision tree
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Use Excel Spreadsheets to solve
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Just BRIEFLY explain b & c
for b:
elaborate/explain the criteria used.
for c:
elaborate why it is labeled "worst" and "best" case scenario
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Help
A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table.
States of Nature
Alternative
High
Low
Buy
85
Rent
70
50
Lease
45
55
Prior Probability
0.7
0.3
Using Baye's Decision Rule, what is the best decision and the expected payoff? (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.)
Best decision
Payoff
4-
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Company: ABC Civil Engineering - an engineering firmSituation: ABC company has recently made significant cuts in staff and the workload on existingemployees has increased. A major RFP is dueCharacters:
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What is the EMV for Build the New Infrastructure?
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Prob 3: Slattkey Sweets proposes to re-launch one of its mature brands, the Zubirot Bar. The brand
manager has identified the tasks involved and produced the following information about them:
I
Activity
H
A
B
C
D
E
F
Description
Redesign the bar
Redesign the packaging
Build pilot production
line
Trial production run
Consumer panel tests
Main pilot production
Design promotional
material
Test market redesigned
product
Produce report for the
Board
Predecessor
Activity
A, B
C
D
E
E
F, G
H
Optimistic
estimate of
time
(weeks)
5
3
10
1
4
2
8
2
Most likely
estimate of
time
(weeks)
8
4
13
1
1
6
4
10
2
Pessimistic
estimate of
time
(weeks)
10
5
a.
Construct the PERT/CPM network for this problem.
b. What is the expected project completion time? What is the critical path?
c. Determine the mean and the standard deviation for the product re-launch.
d. Ascertain the probability that the project will be finished in 40 weeks.
16
2
1
9
5
15
3
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State of Nature
Decision alternatives Good Economy Poor Economy
Stock market 80,000 -20,000
Bonds 30,000 20,000
CDs 23,000 23,000
Probability 0.5 0.5
Compute decision would maximize expected profits.
Compute the maximum amount that should be paid for a perfect forecast of the economy.
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Decision
States of Nature
Alternative
s1
s2
s3
A
80
45
–20
B
40
50
15
P(s1) = .1, P(s2) = .6, and P(s3) = .3.Refer to Exhibit 20-2. The expected value of the best alternative equals _____.
a. 12
b. 38.5
c. 29
d. 105
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I IE
3
4
I E II5
I
3. Your Task
For each scenario, discuss the following:
- What is the issue (there may be more than 1)?
• Who are the parties affected?
• List and explain 2 alternatives for handling each situation
Discuss 2 pros and 2 cons for each alternative
- What is your conclusion? Discuss the best way to handle each situation - use reasoning to
justify your decision
Situation
You have a worker who after repeated warnings still refuses to clean up his work area. He says
that is why the company is paying the custodians. His job description clearly states that he is
responsible for the cleanliness of his area for safety reasons. You believe that he is undermining
your authority.
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- Please answer a, b and c. Question four Bakery Products is considering the introduction of a new line of products. In order to produce the new line, the bakery is considering either a major or minor renovation of the current plant. Bakery Products has the option of not developing the new line at all. The decision alternatives are shown in the payoff table below as well as the states of nature and probabilities. Payoffs are profits; Before making the final decision, Bakery Products can pay a market research firm $500.00 to survey consumer attitudes towards the company's products. The results can be either “vibrant” or “limp”. The reliability of the company, based on past performance, is given below. That is: P(V|F) = 0.80;P(V|N) = 0.60;P(V|U) = 0.30; P(L|F) = 0.20;P(L|N) = 0.40;P(L|U) = 0.70; a) Computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places. b) After you have computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places, construct the appropriate decision tree…arrow_forwardPlease please answer all subparts. I will really upvote. I know it's not according to your guidelines.arrow_forward© Let us apply what you have learned in the Below is a picture showing 10 hazards, identify at least 5 hazards and explain why they are hazards.arrow_forward
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