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1 Khan 260958548 Running head: The New World Order? The New World Order? MENA’s Attitudes towards Sino-Russian Partnership and Forming Eastern Bloc POLI 340: Developing Area/Middle East Muhammad Khan (Student ID: 260958548) Professor Douek Thursday, April 6, 2023

2 Khan 260958548 Research Question: What is the strategic role and significant of MENA, in the context of the contemporary geopolitical blocs of China-Russia and the US/+allies? What driving factors within foreign policy, are influencing MENA states, considering growing multilateral coalitions/partnerships? Is the Middle East endorsing the ‘ East’s ’ comeback? And if so, what is the Middle East and North Africa’s (MENA) role in shaping, influencing, and impacting this “new world order”. Recent developments highlight the establishment of key strategic partnerships between actors, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC states) and other Middle Eastern nations; demonstrating the creation of a political bloc, one that directly challenges the United States previous hegemony across the MENA region and internationally. The latest news illustrates the following geopolitical developments: (1) the Iran-Saudi Arabia rapprochement brokered by China (Soleimany, 2023 ) , (2) BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) nations, the world’s fastest-growing and emerging economies, abandoning the American dollars for trade (Young, 2023), (3) Saudi Arabia alongside Russia and other OPEC members ( Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) collectively limiting oil production (1.15 million barrels per day) until end of 2023 (El Dahan & Rasheed, 2023), and (4) Saudi Arabia joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) (Watkins, 2023). Though recent developments, strong relationships between the MENA region and China-Russia have been brewing for the past two decades; however, the speed in which these relationships have manifested lately is worth analysis and indicates the altering international political climate, one in which the United States influence is declining. According to a survey conducted by Burson Cohn & Wolfe, the Arab youth regard and favor China, Russia, and Turkey as greater allies than

3 Khan 260958548 historical regional powerhouses, the US, United Kingdom, and France; with 73% of respondents advocating for US disengagement from the region (ASDA’A BCW, 2022). One may pose, why has the decline of American influence in the region simultaneously been met with the increase of Sino-Russian influence? To explain the changes in MENA’s foreign policy initiatives and endeavours, this paper will examine the driving themes of Islamism, geopolitics, and authoritarianism/militarism, in influencing the Middle East’s strategic partnerships with China and Russia. This essay will demonstrate and analyze the decline of American influence in the ME, relative to China-Russia, as a culminating ripple effect reinforced by the symbolic and political value of Islamism in the region, the role of strategic geopolitical and economic opportunities, and the prevalence of authoritarian governments that sustain civil relations using militarism as a mechanism of maintaining legitimacy/authority. The essay will focus its scope on the driving factors that influence foreign policy trends in MENA and why those factors have shaped MENA’s strategic alliances with the coming ‘Eastern bloc’; arguing that Russia and China’s non-interventionist approaches to MENA has made them an appealing alternative to the US. Symbolic Value of Islamism and Narrative of the ‘West’ Since its 7 th century advent in the Middle East, Islam maintains a monopolizing effect over the customs, values, and norms, of the MENA region and Muslim societies across Asia and Africa. Theologically, it has significantly shaped the fabric of MENA’s identity and culture. However, Islam’s role in MENA is not restricted to its theological entailments, Islam as a force cultivates its influence as a mobilizing mechanism, one that asserts, upholds, and sustains its involvement socially and politically. Islam has repeatedly been equipped as an instrument of

4 Khan 260958548 mass mobilization and political legitimacy. Though the political theology of Islamism is not applied universally or even similarly, across the region, its political utilization and popular support remain predominant. As noted by Baxter and Akbarzadeh, the contemporary use of Islamism sustains the desire of Muslim peoples to maintain their societal tenets and individual lives according to the “directives of the Islamic faith” (72). Currently, the propagandizing effect that Islamism plays, functions reactionarily to the supposed sentiments of Western intervention in MENA (Baxter & Akbarzadeh, 72). Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey’s Former Prime Minister, asserts that MENA’s political regimes should “derive their legitimacy from Islam” (Ozkan, 16). Davutoglu touches upon the inapplicability of the ‘Western Model’ to the Islamic world, as Western governments justify their legitimacy through democratic processes and parliamentary institutions, fundamentally lacking religious values that “keep them in check” (16). To examine Davutoglu paranoia about Western influence disparaging MENA’s socio-religious values, one can highlight how Islamist movements gained its political symbolism in the region. Between the 1950’s to 1970s, the underlying aim of Islamist movements pursued ‘Islamic modernity’, in this sense, Islamism was the focus on restrengthening Islamic tenets within civil life as a means of combatting Western intervention and influences (Baxter & Akbarzadeh, 75). Now one can tie this back to Davutoglu’s conclusions; the ‘West’ is accused of having a “crisis of values”, a phenomenon that he wishes to save the Islamic world from. Ideologically, the retort of “Islam is the solution” gained greater justification as the United States continued to intervene and assert its presence within MENA. Islamist thinkers pushed narratives of the US’ presence in MENA, as a threat to the region’s socio-religious values because it explicitly became one. In the case of Turkey and Iran, domestic policies of secularization were imposed by incumbent pro-Western administrations (72). Subsequently, the US’ continued presence and engagements in MENA,

5 Khan 260958548 including the ‘liberation’ of Kuwait and invasion of Iraq, produced an Islamist backlash that significantly damaged American’s foreign approval and regional agenda (Baxter & Akbarzadeh, 133). As previously stated, contemporary Islamism is reactionary, it seeks to challenge the prevalence of "foreign interreference in Arab/Muslim affairs” (76); as the US’ foreign policy in MENA became increasingly interventionist, Islamism sought to address two challenges. First, Islamist organizations championed themselves as adversaries to the West, specifically the US, this opposition was derived out of the explicit interference of Western powers within MENA states. Second, Islamism aimed to confront and deter secularizing trends within the Middle East (76). The US’ prolonged presence in MENA, while actively exerting influence over states such as Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, exacerbated notions of “Anti-Americanism” that Islamist movements used to garner support. The MENA states were not oblivious to the US foreign policy strategy, as polling data from 2007 demonstrates that over half of the Jordanian population viewed the US’ presence as sustained by “the desire to control Middle Eastern oil, world-domination, a vendetta against Muslim states” (170). The US played a driving role in its declining influence over the MENA region, their engagements in MENA revealed themes of “intervention, the use of influence, alliance-building, questions regarding the parity value ascribed to human suffering, geo-political strategy” (185). Though fundamentally, it was Islamism that embellished the regions discontent with American regional policy, producing a ripple effect of widespread anti-American narratives that would ultimately establish the ‘West’s’ role in MENA, as an ideological, social, and religious threat to Islamic values, an incompatibility that reinforces the region’s gradual shift to Eastern powers.

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