Blue Star United, a major electronics distributor, has hired Southwest Forecasters, a market research firm, to predict the level of demand for its new product that combines cell phone and complete Internet capabilities at a price substantially below its major competitors. As part of its deliverables, Southwest provides a rating of Poor, Fair, or Good, on the basis of its research. Prior to engaging Southwest Blue Star, management concluded the following probabilities for the market-demand levels: P(Low)== P(s1) = 0.1 P(Moderate) = P(s2) = 0.5 P(High) = P(s3) = 0.4 Southwest completes its study and concludes that the market potential for this product is poor. What conclusion should Blue Star reach based on the market-study results? Proportion of Assessments Provided by a Market-Research Organization Prior to Various Levels of Market Demand (Conditional Probabilities) are given in, the following table: Market Demand That Actually Occurred After Assessment Was Provided Assessment Low Demand (s1) Moderate Demand (s2) High Demand (s3) Poor 0.6 0.3 0.1 Fair 0.2 0.4 0.2 Good 0.2 0.3 0.7

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b) Blue Star United, a major electronics distributor, has hired Southwest Forecasters, a market research firm, to predict the level of demand for its new product that combines cell phone and complete Internet capabilities at a price substantially below its major competitors. As part of its deliverables, Southwest provides a rating of Poor, Fair, or Good, on the basis of its research. Prior to engaging Southwest Blue Star, management concluded the following probabilities for the market-demand levels: P(Low)== P(s1) = 0.1 P(Moderate) = P(s2) = 0.5 P(High) = P(s3) = 0.4 Southwest completes its study and concludes that the market potential for this product is poor. What conclusion should Blue Star reach based on the market-study results? Proportion of Assessments Provided by a Market-Research Organization Prior to Various Levels of Market Demand (Conditional Probabilities) are given in, the following table: Market Demand That Actually Occurred After Assessment Was Provided Assessment Low Demand (s1) Moderate Demand (s2) High Demand (s3) Poor 0.6 0.3 0.1 Fair 0.2 0.4 0.2 Good 0.2 0.3 0.7 c) A quality-control manager found that 30% of work related problems occurred on Mondays and that 20% occurred in the last hour of a day’s shift. It was also found that 4% of worker-related problems occurred in the last hour of Monday’s shift I. Are the events “problem occurs on Monday” and“ problem occurs in the last hour of the day’s shift” statistically independent? II. What is the probability that a work-related problem occur on any day other then the start of the business week (assume that the Monday’s probability of work-related problem is generalizable for other days of the week), or a work-related problem doesn’t occur on the last hour of Monday’s shift? Assume that the two conditions, given in this part, are independent.
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