Statistics for Business and Economics (13th Edition)
13th Edition
ISBN: 9780134506593
Author: James T. McClave, P. George Benson, Terry Sincich
Publisher: PEARSON
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Textbook Question
Chapter 14.5, Problem 14.26ACB
Quarterly single-family housing starts. Refer to the quarterly housing start series, Exercise 14.8 (p. 14-10). Suppose you want to forecast the number of new housing starts in 2015 using data for 2013 and 2014.
a. Calculate the exponentially smoothed values for 2013 and 2014 using w = .6.
b. Plot the housing starts series and the exponentially smoothed series on the same graph.
c. Use the exponentially smoothed data from 2013-2014 to forecast the quarterly number of housing starts in 2015.
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1. Use Excel, MegaStat, or MINITAB to fit both a linear and an exponential trend to the time series.
linear yt= t+Exponential yt= e t
2. Make annual forecasts for 2016–2018, using the linear and exponential trend models.
t Linear Exponential
9
10
11
Using simple exponential smoothing and the following time series data, respond to each of the items.
Period
Demand
1
72
2
60
3
27
4
52
5
26
6
46
7
52
8
28
9
53
10
50
11
57
12
87
13
22
Show work, please. Thank you!
The following table reports the percentage of stocks in a portfolio for nine quarters:
a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?b. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a thatresults in a relatively small MSE.c. Using the exponential smoothing model you developed in part b, what is the forecastof the percentage of stocks in a typical portfolio for the second quarter of year 3?
Chapter 14 Solutions
Statistics for Business and Economics (13th Edition)
Ch. 14.1 - Explain in words how to construct a simple index.Ch. 14.1 - Explain in words how to calculate the following...Ch. 14.1 - Explain in words the difference between Laspeyres...Ch. 14.1 - The table below gives the prices for three...Ch. 14.1 - Refer to Exercise 14.4. The next table gives the...Ch. 14.1 - Annual median family income. The table below lists...Ch. 14.1 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. While overall...Ch. 14.1 - Quarterly single-family housing starts. The...Ch. 14.1 - Spot price of natural gas. The table shown in the...Ch. 14.1 - Employment in farm and nonfarm categories....
Ch. 14.1 - GOP personal consumption expenditures. The gross...Ch. 14.1 - GDP personal consumption expenditures (contd)....Ch. 14.1 - Weekly earnings for workers. The table in the next...Ch. 14.1 - Production and price of metals. The level or price...Ch. 14.2 - Describe the effect of selecting an exponential...Ch. 14.2 - A monthly time series is shown in the table to the...Ch. 14.2 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to the...Ch. 14.2 - Foreign fish production. Overfishing and pollution...Ch. 14.2 - Yearly price of gold. The price of gold is used by...Ch. 14.2 - Personal consumption in transportation. There has...Ch. 14.2 - OPEC crude oil imports. The data in the table...Ch. 14.2 - SP 500 Stock Index. Standard Poors 500 Composite...Ch. 14.5 - How does the choice of the smoothing constant w...Ch. 14.5 - Refer to Exercise 14.4 (p. 14-9). The table with...Ch. 14.5 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to...Ch. 14.5 - Quarterly single-family housing starts. Refer to...Ch. 14.5 - Consumer Price Index. The CPI measures the...Ch. 14.5 - OPEC crude oil imports. Refer to the annual OPEC...Ch. 14.5 - SP 500 Stock Index. Refer to the quarterly...Ch. 14.5 - SP 500 Stock Index (contd). Refer to Exercise...Ch. 14.5 - Monthly gold prices. The fluctuation of gold...Ch. 14.6 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to the...Ch. 14.6 - Annual U.S. craft beer production (contd). Refer...Ch. 14.6 - SP 500 Stock Index. Refer to your exponential...Ch. 14.6 - SP 500 Stock Index (contd). Refer to your Holt...Ch. 14.6 - Monthly gold prices. Refer to the monthly gold...Ch. 14.6 - US school enrollments. The next table reports...Ch. 14.8 - The annual price of a finished product (in cents...Ch. 14.8 - Retail sales in Quarters 14 over a 10-year period...Ch. 14.8 - What advantage do regression forecasts have over...Ch. 14.8 - Mortgage interest rates. The level at which...Ch. 14.8 - Price of natural gas. Refer to Exercise 14.9 (p....Ch. 14.8 - A gasoline tax on carbon emissions. In an effort...Ch. 14.8 - Predicting presidential elections. Researchers at...Ch. 14.8 - Life insurance policies in force. The table below...Ch. 14.8 - Graphing calculator sales. The next table presents...Ch. 14.8 - Prob. 14.47ACICh. 14.9 - Define autocorrelation. Explain why it is...Ch. 14.9 - For each case, indicate the decision regarding the...Ch. 14.9 - What do the following Durbin-Watson statistics...Ch. 14.9 - Company donations to charity. Refer to the Journal...Ch. 14.9 - Forecasting monthly car and truck sales. Forecasts...Ch. 14.9 - Predicting presidential elections. Refer to the...Ch. 14.9 - Mortgage interest rates. Refer to the data on...Ch. 14.9 - Price of natural gas. Refer to the annual data on...Ch. 14.9 - Life insurance policies in force. Refer to the...Ch. 14.9 - Modeling the deposit share of a retail bank....Ch. 14 - Insured Social Security workers. Workers insured...Ch. 14 - Insured Social Security workers (contd). Refer to...Ch. 14 - Retail prices of food items. In 1990, the average...Ch. 14 - Demand for emergency room services. With the...Ch. 14 - Mortgage interest rates. Refer to the annual...Ch. 14 - Price of Abbott Labs stock. The yearly closing...Ch. 14 - Price o f Abbott Labs stock (contd). Refer to...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14.65ACICh. 14 - Prob. 14.66ACICh. 14 - Quarterly GOP values (contd). Refer to Exercise...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14.68ACICh. 14 - Prob. 14.69ACICh. 14 - Prob. 14.70ACICh. 14 - IBM stock prices. Refer to Example 14.1 (p. 14-5)...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14.72ACI
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- With what kind of exponential model would doubling time be associated? What role does doubling time play in these models?arrow_forwardWith what kind of exponential model would half-life be associated? What role does half-life play in these models?arrow_forward2// Using simple exponential smoothing and the following time series data, respond to each of the items. Period. Demand 1. 104 2. 132 3. 143 4. 137 5. 146 6. 150 7. 101 8. 126 9. 116 10. 115arrow_forward
- Using simple exponential smoothing and the following time series data, respond to each of the items. Period Demand 1 72 2 60 3 27 4 52 5 26 6 46 7 52 8 28 9 53 10 50 11 57 12 87 13 22 14 56 Please show work.arrow_forwardUsing exponential smoothing, calculate the forecasts for months 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Thesmoothing constant is 0.2, and the old forecast for month 1 is 245.arrow_forwardBased on the time series plot in the attachment, answer the following questions. In these questions, it's sufficient to provide explanations and, if possible, write down the related equation with the required parameter(s). Don't attempt to calculate something. a. Identify the time components for this series. b. What kind of exponential smoothing model would be more appropriate for developing a forecast model for this time series? Explain why. c. How can this time series be deseasonalized by using moving average models?arrow_forward
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