Chapter 17.3, Problem 16E

The U.S. Census Bureau tracks the median price for new home sales by month of year. The median prices for April for the years 1990 to 2011 follow (U.S. Census Bureau website, April 16, 2012).

Year	Price ($1000s)	Year	Price ($1000s)
1990	130.0	2001	175.2
1991	121.0	2002	187.1
1992	120.0	2003	189.5
1993	127.0	2004	222.3
1994	129.0	2005	236.3
1995	134.0	2006	257.0
1996	140.0	2007	242.5
1997	150.0	2008	246.4
1998	148.0	2009	219.2
1999	159.9	2010	208.3
2000	162.6	2011	224.7

1. a. Construct a time series plot. Comment on any pattern you observe. Discuss some of the factors that may have resulted in this time series plot.
2. b. Given the time series plot in part (a), do you think the forecasting methods developed in this section are appropriate for this time series? Explain.
3. c. To forecast a value for April 2012, how much of the past data would you use? Explain.