Macroeconomics Plus MyEconLab with Pearson eText (1-semester access)
Macroeconomics Plus MyEconLab with Pearson eText (1-semester access)
6th Edition
ISBN: 9780134435046
Author: R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O'Brien
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 18, Problem 18.2.5PA
To determine

The exchange rate between the dollar and euro.

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The euro is the official currency of almost all of the European Union as well as several smaller countries. It is the second-most traded currency in the world after the United States dollar. As of August 2018, with more than €1.2 trillion in circulation, the euro has one of the highest combined values of banknotes and coins in circulation in the world, having surpassed the U.S. dollar.  By March 2002 it had completely replaced the former currencies of the European Union countries. Do you think that a common currency for North America (the U.S., Canada and Mexico) would be a good idea?  Would it help facilitate trade?  Why?
When Great Britain voted to leave the eurozone, the pound depreciated 17% against the dollar. It also raised fears that the eurozone, which uses the euro as a common currency, would fall apart. Suppose that the dollar is considered safer than the euro, given these conditions. The following graph shows the market for dollars, with the quantity of dollars measured along the horizontal axis and the price of dollars in terms of euros measured along the vertical axis (in other words, the euro/dollar exchange rate).
Suppose that you hold a piece of land in the city of London that you may want to sell in one year. As a U.S. resident, you are concerned with the dollar value of the land. Assume that if the British economy booms in the future, the land will be worth £2,000, and one British pound will be worth $1.50. If the British economy slows down, on the other hand, the land will be worth less, say, £1,500, but the pound will be stronger, say, $1.60 per pound. You feel that the British economy will experience a boom with a 60 percent probability and a slowdown with a 40 percent probability. Required: Estimate your exposure (b) to the exchange risk. Note: Negative amount should be indicated by a minus sign. Compute the variance of the dollar value of your property that is attributable to exchange rate uncertainty.
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