EBK OM
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781305888210
Author: Collier
Publisher: YUZU
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Chapter 4, Problem 13PA
Summary Introduction
Interpretation:
Expected value decision based on the technique used in decision analysis and evaluating whether this technique is reliable or not.
Concept Introduction:
The expected value method is also known by the name of expected monetary value (EMV). It is a decision making process in risk management to change the risk into the numbers which helps the experts to decide along with the risk regarding that decision. It also determines how much profit an individual can make by taking some certain decisions.
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The Handy-Dandy Department Store had forecast sales of $110,000 for the previous week. The actual sales were $130,000.a. What is the forecast for this week, using exponential smoothing and α = .1?b. If sales this week turn out to be $120,000, what is the forecast for next week?
Rosa’s Italian restaurant wants to develop forecasts of daily demand for the next week. Th e restaurant is closed on Mondays and experiences a seasonal pattern for the other six days of the week. Mario, the manager, has collected information on the number of customers served each day for the past two weeks. If Mario expects total demand for next week to be around 350, whatis the forecast for each day of next week?
Using the accompanying log-log graph, answer the following questions:
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What could be causing the fluctuations above the optimum line?
If management forecast the tenth unit on the optimum line, what was that forecast in hours?
If management built the tenth unit as indicated by the actual line, how many hours did it take?
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He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.arrow_forwardScenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. 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