MyLab Operations Management with Pearson eText -- Access Card -- for Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management
12th Edition
ISBN: 9780134165325
Author: Jay Heizer, Barry Render, Chuck Munson
Publisher: PEARSON
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Textbook Question
Chapter 4, Problem 15P
Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 138.
- a. Use a 3-year moving average to
forecast the sales of Volkswagen Beetles in Nevada through year 6. - b. What is the MAD?
- c. What is the MSE?
Solved example 4.1
Sales of Volkswagen’s popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). The sales manager had predicted before the new model was introduced that first year sales would be 410 VWs. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of α =.30, develop forecasts for years 2 through 6.
| YEAR | SALES | FORECAST |
| 1 | 450 | 410 |
| 2 | 495 | |
| 3 | 518 | |
| 4 | 563 | |
| 5 | 584 | |
| 6 | ? |
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Students have asked these similar questions
Chapter 14
1. How would you conduct a trend analysis? Provide an example.
2. Explain the three different source of information and forecast assumptions.
Chapter 15
3. Explain the four common uses of comparisons that the manager will find helpful.
Chapter 16
4. Explain the importance of assumptions when building a budget?
Chapter 17
5. Explain the rationale for replacing existing equipment with new equipment.
The following data show the number of liters of gasoline sold by Mackrin's in Colorado for the past 12 weeks.
Which forecasting model would you recommend to Mackrin's manager? Why?
What demand forecast would you recommend for week 13?
Week
Actual Demand (1000 liters)
Forecasting (1000 liters)
FSMA
/A-F/
FWMA
/A-F/
FES, α=0.3
/A-F/
1
17
2
21
17
4
3
19
18.2
0.8
4
23
19
4
18.44
4.56
5
18
21
3
20.8
2.8
19.81
1.81
6
16
20
4
20
4
19.3
3.3
7
20
19
1
18.3
2.3
18.31
1.69
8
18
18
0
18.7
0.7
18.82
0.82
9
22
18
4
18.2
4.2
18.6
3.4
10
20
20
0
19.8
0.2
19.62
0.38
11
15
20
5
20.2
5.2
19.73
4.73
12
22
19
3
18.2
3.8
18.3
3.7
13
19
19.5
19.41
MAD
2.67
2.9
2.7
MSE
10.22…
IN THE MID-1960S, WALT DISNEY’S DREAM was to build a family resort destination like no other. The dream became a reality when Walt Disney World Resort opened in 1971, featuring Magic Kingdom as the centerpiece. Today, millions of guests visit the Walt Disney World Resort each year to experience the world-class theme parks and hotels. Analytics feature prominently in the operations of Walt Disney World.
i)Explain using illustrations how forecasting features in this company’s operations.
ii)Explain at least four methods of forecasting that can be used for Disney’s purpose. Use made up worked examples.
Chapter 4 Solutions
MyLab Operations Management with Pearson eText -- Access Card -- for Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management
Ch. 4 - What is a qualitative foretasting model, and when...Ch. 4 - Identify and briefly describe the two general...Ch. 4 - Identify the three forecasting time horizons....Ch. 4 - Briefly describe the steps that are used to...Ch. 4 - A skeptical manager asks what medium-range...Ch. 4 - Explain why such forecasting devices as moving...Ch. 4 - What is the basic difference between a weighted...Ch. 4 - What three methods are used to determine the...Ch. 4 - Research and briefly describe the Delphi...Ch. 4 - What is the primary difference between a...
Ch. 4 - Define time series.Ch. 4 - What effect does the value of the smoothing...Ch. 4 - Explain the value of seasonal indices in...Ch. 4 - Which forecasting technique can place the most...Ch. 4 - In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.Ch. 4 - What is the purpose of a tracking signal?Ch. 4 - Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the...Ch. 4 - What is the difference between a dependent and an...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries that are affected by...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries in which demand...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21DQCh. 4 - Prob. 22DQCh. 4 - The following gives the number of pints of type B...Ch. 4 - 4.2 a. Plot the above data on a graph. Do you...Ch. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years...Ch. 4 - A check-processing center uses exponential...Ch. 4 - The Carbondale Hospital is considering the...Ch. 4 - The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were...Ch. 4 - The actual demand for the patients at Omaha...Ch. 4 - Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last...Ch. 4 - Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop...Ch. 4 - Data collected on the yearly registrations for a...Ch. 4 - Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual and forecast demand...Ch. 4 - As you can see in the following table, demand for...Ch. 4 - Following are two weekly forecasts made by two...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 138. a. Use a...Ch. 4 - Solved example 4.1 Sales of Volkswagens popular...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1. Using smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual (At) and forecast...Ch. 4 - Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and...Ch. 4 - Question 4.20 Resolve Problem 4.19 with =.1 and ...Ch. 4 - Question 4.21 Refer to the trend-adjusted...Ch. 4 - Question 4.22 Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the...Ch. 4 - Question 4.23 Sales of quilt covers at Bud Baniss...Ch. 4 - Question 4.25 The following gives the number of...Ch. 4 - Prob. 25PCh. 4 - Question 4.27 George Kyparisis owns a company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.28 Attendance at Orlandos newest...Ch. 4 - Question 4.29 North Dakota Electric Company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.33 The number of internal disk drives...Ch. 4 - Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist,...Ch. 4 - Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North...Ch. 4 - Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.43, forecast...Ch. 4 - Question 4.47 Storrs Cycles has just started...Ch. 4 - Question 4.49 Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud...Ch. 4 - Question 4.24 Mark Gershon, owner of a musical...Ch. 4 - Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting...Ch. 4 - Prob. 45PCh. 4 - Question 4.32 The following data relate the sales...Ch. 4 - Question 4.34 The number of auto accidents in...Ch. 4 - Question 4.35 Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock,...Ch. 4 - Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman,...Ch. 4 - Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickmans...Ch. 4 - Question 4.38 City government has collected the...Ch. 4 - Using the data in Problem 4.39, apply linear...Ch. 4 - Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in...Ch. 4 - Thirteen students entered the business program at...Ch. 4 - Question 4.48 Dave Fletcher, the general manager...Ch. 4 - The following are monthly actual and forecast...Ch. 4 - Prob. 1CSCh. 4 - Prob. 2CSCh. 4 - Prob. 3CSCh. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...
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