MyLab Operations Management with Pearson eText -- Access Card -- for Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management
12th Edition
ISBN: 9780134165325
Author: Jay Heizer, Barry Render, Chuck Munson
Publisher: PEARSON
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Concept explainers
Textbook Question
Chapter 4, Problem 21P
Question
• 4.21 Refer to the trend-adjusted exponential smoothing illustration in Example 7 on pages 117–119 Using α =. 2 and β =. 4, we
In this problem, show your calculations for months 5 and 6 for Ft, Tt, and FITt.
Expert Solution & Answer
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solutionStudents have asked these similar questions
Question 16
Daily demand for sandwiches at a local deli is shown in the table. Using a 3 period weighted moving average (most recent demands receive the highest weights) with weights W1 = 0.50, W2 = 0.30 and W3 = 0.20, what is the forecast for day 8?
Group of answer choices
a. 39.3 sandwiches
b. 41.3 sandwiches
c. 43 sandwiches
d. 43.3 sandwiches
e. Impossible to determine
QUESTION 1 Sales of Fat Lips Burgers for 2012 are shown in the table below. 1. Do the 2 month SMA forecast 2. Do 2 month WMA forecast using the information below WMA – 2: last month, 1 – last 2 months 3. For the month of January 2012, the forecast was 438. Do the EMA forecast with the smoothing constant = 0.3. What is the forecast for Jan 2013? 4. Compare the forecasts above using MAD, MSE and MAPE. Which forecast method gives the least errors?
Month
Actual Sales
Forecast
Jan 2012
438
Feb
420
March
414
Apr
318
May
306
June
240
July
240
Aug
216
Sep
198
Oct
225
Nov
270
Dec
315
Jan 2013
-
QUESTION 2Dayang sells 5 kg bags of fertilizer to local farmers in Tg Karang. The sales data for the past 11 months is shown below.
Month
Demand (10s of bags)
1
4
2
6
3
4
4
5
5
10
6
8
7
7
8
9
9
12
10
14
11
15
1. Find the forecast for the month 12 using the methods below: a. Simple 4 month moving average (SMA) b.…
QUESTION ONE (b) The forecast of a product for the first week of January was 200 units, whereas the actual demand turned out to be 220 units.
i. Find the forecast for the week of January assuming the smoothing constant 0.2 α =
ii. Find the forecast for the third week of third week of January if the actual demand of the second week is 210 units
Chapter 4 Solutions
MyLab Operations Management with Pearson eText -- Access Card -- for Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management
Ch. 4 - What is a qualitative foretasting model, and when...Ch. 4 - Identify and briefly describe the two general...Ch. 4 - Identify the three forecasting time horizons....Ch. 4 - Briefly describe the steps that are used to...Ch. 4 - A skeptical manager asks what medium-range...Ch. 4 - Explain why such forecasting devices as moving...Ch. 4 - What is the basic difference between a weighted...Ch. 4 - What three methods are used to determine the...Ch. 4 - Research and briefly describe the Delphi...Ch. 4 - What is the primary difference between a...
Ch. 4 - Define time series.Ch. 4 - What effect does the value of the smoothing...Ch. 4 - Explain the value of seasonal indices in...Ch. 4 - Which forecasting technique can place the most...Ch. 4 - In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.Ch. 4 - What is the purpose of a tracking signal?Ch. 4 - Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the...Ch. 4 - What is the difference between a dependent and an...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries that are affected by...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries in which demand...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21DQCh. 4 - Prob. 22DQCh. 4 - The following gives the number of pints of type B...Ch. 4 - 4.2 a. Plot the above data on a graph. Do you...Ch. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years...Ch. 4 - A check-processing center uses exponential...Ch. 4 - The Carbondale Hospital is considering the...Ch. 4 - The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were...Ch. 4 - The actual demand for the patients at Omaha...Ch. 4 - Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last...Ch. 4 - Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop...Ch. 4 - Data collected on the yearly registrations for a...Ch. 4 - Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual and forecast demand...Ch. 4 - As you can see in the following table, demand for...Ch. 4 - Following are two weekly forecasts made by two...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 138. a. Use a...Ch. 4 - Solved example 4.1 Sales of Volkswagens popular...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1. Using smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual (At) and forecast...Ch. 4 - Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and...Ch. 4 - Question 4.20 Resolve Problem 4.19 with =.1 and ...Ch. 4 - Question 4.21 Refer to the trend-adjusted...Ch. 4 - Question 4.22 Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the...Ch. 4 - Question 4.23 Sales of quilt covers at Bud Baniss...Ch. 4 - Question 4.25 The following gives the number of...Ch. 4 - Prob. 25PCh. 4 - Question 4.27 George Kyparisis owns a company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.28 Attendance at Orlandos newest...Ch. 4 - Question 4.29 North Dakota Electric Company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.33 The number of internal disk drives...Ch. 4 - Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist,...Ch. 4 - Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North...Ch. 4 - Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.43, forecast...Ch. 4 - Question 4.47 Storrs Cycles has just started...Ch. 4 - Question 4.49 Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud...Ch. 4 - Question 4.24 Mark Gershon, owner of a musical...Ch. 4 - Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting...Ch. 4 - Prob. 45PCh. 4 - Question 4.32 The following data relate the sales...Ch. 4 - Question 4.34 The number of auto accidents in...Ch. 4 - Question 4.35 Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock,...Ch. 4 - Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman,...Ch. 4 - Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickmans...Ch. 4 - Question 4.38 City government has collected the...Ch. 4 - Using the data in Problem 4.39, apply linear...Ch. 4 - Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in...Ch. 4 - Thirteen students entered the business program at...Ch. 4 - Question 4.48 Dave Fletcher, the general manager...Ch. 4 - The following are monthly actual and forecast...Ch. 4 - Prob. 1CSCh. 4 - Prob. 2CSCh. 4 - Prob. 3CSCh. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- Question 4 (a) With reference to your department or one in a company or organization that you are familiar with that is involved in generating forecasts of air cargo traffic, propose the purposes for which the forecasts can be employed. In the process of generating air cargo traffic forecasts, appraise the forces that will promote air freight growth and the constraints the air cargo market are likely to face.arrow_forwardQuestion 3 [Soalan 3] Use the data set below to answer the following questions: [Gunakan set data di bawah untuk menjawab soalan-soalan berikut:] Table 1: Monthly sales unit [Jadual 1: Unit jualan bulanan] Month [Bulan] Sales Units [Unit Jualan] 1 1100 2 1200 3 1450 4 1800 5 2100 6 2700 ii) Calculate the four-period weighted moving average forecasts for months 5 and 6 using weights of 0.05, 0.15, 0.30, and 0.50 from the earliest period to the latest period, respectively. [Hitungkan ramalan wajaran purata bergerak menggunakan empat-tempoh untuk bulan 5 dan 6 menggunakan pemberat 0.05, 0.15, 0.30 dan 0.50 dari tempoh yang terawal ke tempoh yang terakhir mengikut turutan.]arrow_forwardQuestion Using a suitable moving average method, find the trend values.arrow_forward
- Question 1 Double Exponential Smoothing should be applied to time series with ____________________. Group of answer choices a. no trend and no seasonality. b. trend but no seasonality. c. seasonality but no trend. d. both trend and seasonality. Question 2 An analyst fits a Holt’s Double exponential smoothing model in StatTools to a time series data on sales with the smoothing parameters to be optimized by the software. In the output she notes that the optimized smoothing parameter for trend to be 0.0000. What does this imply? Group of answer choices a. There is no trend in the data. b. There is both trend and seasonality in the data. c. There could be trend in the data, but it is not smoothed over time by the model. d. This output does not make any sense!arrow_forwardquestion A manufacturer is developing a facility plan to provide production capacity for the factory. the amount of capacity required in the future depends on the number of products demanded by its customers. The data below reflect past sales of its products. a) use simple linear regression to forecast annual demand for the products for each of the nnext 3 years. b) determine the correlation coefficient for the data and interpret its meaning. c) find the coefficient of determination for the data and interprete its meaning. year annual sales (number of products year annual sales (number of products) 1 490 5 461 2 487 6 475 3 492 7 472 4 478 8 458arrow_forwardQuestion 21 A CFE of -140 suggests which of the following? Group of answer choices a. There is a bias towards over forecasting, though we cannot determine from the data provided whether that is severe bias or not b. There is a severe bias towards overforecasting c. There is a bias towards under forecasting, though we cannot determine from the data provided whether that is severe bias or not d. There is a severe bias towards under forecasting e. Bias is negligible in this casearrow_forward
- QUESTION 32 Suppose sales for the past 6 months have been82, 97, 84, 106, 108, and 100Using a smoothing coefficient of 0.6, what is the exponentially smoothed value for the 3rd period? (please round your answer to 1 decimal place)arrow_forwardQuestion Four: ABC Company sells home appliances. Daily sales for a six-day period were as follows: Day Sales Saturday 20 Sunday 24 Monday 30 Tuesday 40 Wednesday 36 Thursday 44 Forecast Friday sales volume using each of the following methods: A three-day moving average. A four day weighted average using weights of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4 Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.2, assuming Wednesday forecast of 42. Determine a linear trend line equation for ABC Company. Use the trend equation to forecast Friday sales volume.arrow_forwardQUESTION 34 Suppose the actual sales and the forecasted, or smoothed sales, for the past 5 months have been Actual Smoothed 54.4 76.8 54.4 75.5 72.3 53.2 74.8 39.2 57.6 What is the Mean Absolute Error of the smoothed series? (please round your answer to 1 decimal place)arrow_forward
- Question: Develop a problem statement for the scenario given below by considering the variables involved? Suppose you are a manager of a beverage company. You have recently witnessed a sudden decrease in sales. It has been widely accepted that due to Covid-19, the purchasing power of consumers has been declined. On the other hand in such situations, sales personnel avoid roaming for selling to avoid contact. The sudden decrease in the number of hours work and alternate shifts due to Covid-19 SOPs also resulted in a low-profit margin. You have to figure out the actual reason for the decline in sales as a manager.arrow_forwardQUESTION 1The table below shows the sales figures for a brand of shoe over the last 12 months.Months SalesJanuary 69February 75March 86April 92May 95June 100July 108August 115September 125October 131November 140December 150 a. Using the following, forecast the sales for the months up to January the following year:-i. A simple three month moving averagearrow_forwardQuestion 2Chad and James are two veteran sales executives who have been working for a well-established car distributor selling new cars. About six years ago, believing that there were good prospects in starting a business in selling used cars, both gentlemen left their employment to venture out.Since the beginning of their company, sales had been quite positive, but the owners now wanted to know more about future sales using an appropriate forecasting method. For a start, they wanted to focus on the quarterly sales of a popular brand of used cars.The sales figures over the last five years were used for the forecast. They are presented in the table below. (c) Explain why forecasting, despite its usefulness or sophistication, should only be considered a useful tool for decision making in any business. What are other factors that need to be considered? (d) The business of selling cars in Singapore, like many businesses, is subject to uncertainties.Discuss three (3) external factors,…arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,Operations ManagementOperations ManagementISBN:9781259667473Author:William J StevensonPublisher:McGraw-Hill EducationOperations and Supply Chain Management (Mcgraw-hi...Operations ManagementISBN:9781259666100Author:F. Robert Jacobs, Richard B ChasePublisher:McGraw-Hill Education
- Purchasing and Supply Chain ManagementOperations ManagementISBN:9781285869681Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. PattersonPublisher:Cengage LearningProduction and Operations Analysis, Seventh Editi...Operations ManagementISBN:9781478623069Author:Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon OlsenPublisher:Waveland Press, Inc.
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,
Operations Management
Operations Management
ISBN:9781259667473
Author:William J Stevenson
Publisher:McGraw-Hill Education
Operations and Supply Chain Management (Mcgraw-hi...
Operations Management
ISBN:9781259666100
Author:F. Robert Jacobs, Richard B Chase
Publisher:McGraw-Hill Education
Purchasing and Supply Chain Management
Operations Management
ISBN:9781285869681
Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson
Publisher:Cengage Learning
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Editi...
Operations Management
ISBN:9781478623069
Author:Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher:Waveland Press, Inc.
Introduction to Forecasting; Author: Ekeeda;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eIbVXrJL7k;License: Standard YouTube License, CC-BY