OPERATIONS MGMT. INSTANT ACCESS
12th Edition
ISBN: 9780134165349
Author: HEIZER
Publisher: PEARSON
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Videos
Textbook Question
Chapter 4, Problem 52P
Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in London, England, is believed to be tied heavily to the number of tourists visiting the city. During the past 12 years, the data on the next page have been obtained:
Associated Press
| YEAR (SUMMER MONTHS) | NUMBER OF TOURISTS (IN MILLIONS) | RIDERSHIP (IN MILLIONS) | ||
| 1 | 7 | 1.5 | ||
| 2 | 2 | 1.0 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 1.3 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 1.5 | ||
| 5 | 14 | 2.5 | ||
| 6 | 15 | 2.7 | ||
| 7 | 16 | 2.4 | ||
| 3 | 12 | 2.0 | ||
| 3 | 14 | 2.7 | ||
| 10 | 20 | 4.4 | ||
| 11 | 15 | 3.4 | ||
| 12 | 7 | 1.7 | ||
- a. Plot these data and decide if a linear model is reasonable.
- b. Develop a regression relationship.
- c. What is expected ridership if 10 million tourists visit London in a year?
- d. Explain the predicted ridership if there are no tourists at all.
- e. What is the standard error of the estimate?
- f. What is the model’s correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination?
Expert Solution & Answer
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solution
Students have asked these similar questions
The number of guests registered in a five star hotel for last ten years is shown in the following table. To project future occupancy, management would like to determine the mathematical trend of guest registration in order to decide whether future expansion is necessary. Develop a regression equation and forecast expected numbers of guests in 2020 and 2023. As an Operations Manager, what would you plan to comply with the forecasted demand?
Table 4.1: Guest registration
Year
Number of guests
2009
17,000
2010
16,000
2011
16,000
2012
21,000
2013
20,000
2014
20,000
2015
23,000
2016
25,000
2017
24,000
2018
30,000
Helpful equations:
where and
where and
A restaurant wants to forecast its weekly sales. Historical data (in dollars) for fifteen weeks are shown below. Use Excel and the Moving Average template to answer the following questions.
Time
Period
Observation
1
1,568
2
1,504
3
1,399
4
1,389
5
1,199
6
1,385
7
1,574
8
1,327
9
1,328
10
1,590
11
1,364
12
1,596
13
1,671
14
1,636
15
1,332
What is the forecast for week 16, using a two-period moving average? Round your answer to the nearest cent.
$
What is the forecast for week 16, using a three-period moving average? Round your answer to the nearest cent.
$
Compute MSE for the two- and three-period moving average models to determine the best model. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places.
2-period MA
3-period MA
MSE
A restaurant wants to forecast its weekly sales. Historical data (in dollars) for fifteen weeks are shown below. Use Excel and the Moving Average template to answer the following questions.
Time
Period
Observation
1
1,575
2
1,568
3
1,454
4
1,400
5
1,220
6
1,384
7
1,602
8
1,315
9
1,376
10
1,515
11
1,346
12
1,588
13
1,674
14
1,564
15
1,378
Plot the data and provide insights about the time series.
The correct graph is .
A.
B.
C.
D.
What is the forecast for week 16, using a two-period moving average? Round your answer to the nearest cent.
$
What is the forecast for week 16, using a three-period moving average? Round your answer to the nearest cent.
$
Compute MSE for the two- and three-period moving average models to determine the best model. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places.
2-period MA
3-period MA
MSE
Chapter 4 Solutions
OPERATIONS MGMT. INSTANT ACCESS
Ch. 4 - What is a qualitative foretasting model, and when...Ch. 4 - Identify and briefly describe the two general...Ch. 4 - Identify the three forecasting time horizons....Ch. 4 - Briefly describe the steps that are used to...Ch. 4 - A skeptical manager asks what medium-range...Ch. 4 - Explain why such forecasting devices as moving...Ch. 4 - What is the basic difference between a weighted...Ch. 4 - What three methods are used to determine the...Ch. 4 - Research and briefly describe the Delphi...Ch. 4 - What is the primary difference between a...
Ch. 4 - Define time series.Ch. 4 - What effect does the value of the smoothing...Ch. 4 - Explain the value of seasonal indices in...Ch. 4 - Which forecasting technique can place the most...Ch. 4 - In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.Ch. 4 - What is the purpose of a tracking signal?Ch. 4 - Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the...Ch. 4 - What is the difference between a dependent and an...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries that are affected by...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries in which demand...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21DQCh. 4 - Prob. 22DQCh. 4 - The following gives the number of pints of type B...Ch. 4 - 4.2 a. Plot the above data on a graph. Do you...Ch. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years...Ch. 4 - A check-processing center uses exponential...Ch. 4 - The Carbondale Hospital is considering the...Ch. 4 - The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were...Ch. 4 - The actual demand for the patients at Omaha...Ch. 4 - Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last...Ch. 4 - Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop...Ch. 4 - Data collected on the yearly registrations for a...Ch. 4 - Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual and forecast demand...Ch. 4 - As you can see in the following table, demand for...Ch. 4 - Following are two weekly forecasts made by two...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 138. a. Use a...Ch. 4 - Solved example 4.1 Sales of Volkswagens popular...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1. Using smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual (At) and forecast...Ch. 4 - Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and...Ch. 4 - Question 4.20 Resolve Problem 4.19 with =.1 and ...Ch. 4 - Question 4.21 Refer to the trend-adjusted...Ch. 4 - Question 4.22 Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the...Ch. 4 - Question 4.23 Sales of quilt covers at Bud Baniss...Ch. 4 - Question 4.25 The following gives the number of...Ch. 4 - Prob. 25PCh. 4 - Question 4.27 George Kyparisis owns a company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.28 Attendance at Orlandos newest...Ch. 4 - Question 4.29 North Dakota Electric Company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.33 The number of internal disk drives...Ch. 4 - Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist,...Ch. 4 - Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North...Ch. 4 - Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.43, forecast...Ch. 4 - Question 4.47 Storrs Cycles has just started...Ch. 4 - Question 4.49 Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud...Ch. 4 - Question 4.24 Mark Gershon, owner of a musical...Ch. 4 - Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting...Ch. 4 - Prob. 45PCh. 4 - Question 4.32 The following data relate the sales...Ch. 4 - Question 4.34 The number of auto accidents in...Ch. 4 - Question 4.35 Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock,...Ch. 4 - Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman,...Ch. 4 - Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickmans...Ch. 4 - Question 4.38 City government has collected the...Ch. 4 - Using the data in Problem 4.39, apply linear...Ch. 4 - Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in...Ch. 4 - Thirteen students entered the business program at...Ch. 4 - Question 4.48 Dave Fletcher, the general manager...Ch. 4 - The following are monthly actual and forecast...Ch. 4 - Prob. 1CSCh. 4 - Prob. 2CSCh. 4 - Prob. 3CSCh. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.arrow_forwardScenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?arrow_forwardScenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?arrow_forward
- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?arrow_forwardHow is moving average approach related to exponential smoothing?arrow_forwardGrace owns and operates a chain of 12 vegetable protein "hamburger" restaurants in northern Luzon. Sales figures and advertising expenses for the stores are provided in the table below. Sales are given in millions of dollars; advertising expenses are in tens of thousands of dollars. Calculate a regression line for the data. What is your forecast of sales for a store with advertising spending of $240,000? $300,000? Vince Coffee chain sells temperature-controlled smart mugs at $150 each. The monthly sales of mugs for the last twelve months were: Given: Month Sales January 825 February 756 March 808 April 950 May 678 June 875 July 695 August 589 September 690 October 890 November 1030 December 1525 a. Compute a 3-month moving average demand forecast for each month from June through December. b. Compute a 5-month moving average demand forecast for each month from June through December. c. Calculate the MSE…arrow_forward
- (8 points) Infoworks is a large computer discount store that sells computers and ancillary equipment and software in the town where a State University is located. Infoworks has collected historical data on computer sales and printer sales for the past 10 years, as follows: Develop a linear regression model relating printer sales to computer sales in order to forecast printer demand in year 11 if 1,300 computers are sold. Develop a moving-average model with n = 3 to forecast printer demand in year 11 Develop an exponential smoothing model with α = .30 to forecast printer demand in year 11. Compare your result in a, b, c. Which model would you choose and why?arrow_forwardZeus Computer Chips Inc. used to have major contracts to produce the Centrino-type chips. The market has been declining during the past three years because of the dual-core chips, which it cannot produce, so Zeus has the unpleasant task of forecasting next year. The task is unpleasant because the firm has not been able to find replacement chips for its product lines. Here is demand over the past 12 quarters:2007 2008 2009I 4,800 I 3,500 I 3,200II 3,500 II 2,700 II 2,100III 4,300 III 3,500 III 2,700IV 3,000 IV 2,400 IV 1,700Use the decomposition technique to forecast the four quarters of 2010.arrow_forwardWhat is the role of the POS system in forecasting at HardRock?arrow_forward
- The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum, a 24,000-seat arena that is home to the city’s professional basketball and ice hockey teams and that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows, and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the nine years since the coliseum opened: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Occupancy Rate 75% 70% 72% 77% 83% 81% 86% 91% 87% Compute an exponential smoothing forecast with α = 0.20, an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast with α = 0.20 and β = 0.20, and a linear trend line forecast. Compare the three forecasts using MAD and average error (?̅), and indicate which forecast seems to be most accurate.arrow_forwardRoom registrations in the Toronto Towers Plaza Hotelhave been recorded for the past 9 years. To project futureoccupancy, management would like to determine the math-ematical trend of guest registration. This estimate willhelp the hotel determine whether future expansion will beneeded. Given the following time-series data, develop aregression equation relating registrations to time (e.g., atrend equation). Then forecast year 11 registrations. Roomregistrations are in the thousands:arrow_forwardUse regression analysis to forecast the point at which Swansonneeds to '·build out" the top two floors of the new building,namely, when demand will exceed 16,000 births.arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
Purchasing and Supply Chain ManagementOperations ManagementISBN:9781285869681Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. PattersonPublisher:Cengage Learning
MarketingMarketingISBN:9780357033791Author:Pride, William MPublisher:South Western Educational Publishing
Purchasing and Supply Chain Management
Operations Management
ISBN:9781285869681
Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson
Publisher:Cengage Learning
Marketing
Marketing
ISBN:9780357033791
Author:Pride, William M
Publisher:South Western Educational Publishing
Forecasting 2: Forecasting Types & Qualitative methods; Author: Adapala Academy & IES GS for Exams;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npWni9K6Z_g;License: Standard YouTube License, CC-BY
Introduction to Forecasting - with Examples; Author: Dr. Bharatendra Rai;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98K7AG32qv8;License: Standard Youtube License