UPENN: LOOSE LEAF CORP.FIN W/CONNECT
17th Edition
ISBN: 9781260361278
Author: Ross
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Publishing Co.
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Chapter 7, Problem 27QP
Sensitivity Analysis In Problem 26, suppose you’re confident about your own projections, but you’re a little unsure about Detroit’s actual machine screw requirements. What is the sensitivity of the project OCF to changes in the quantity supplied? What about the sensitivity of
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6. Sensitivity and scenario analysis
Different techniques for analyzing project risk require different input variables and assumptions.
Suppose you are using the sensitivity analysis technique to evaluate project risk. You would change
in the model to evaluate the effect of the input factors on the expected value.
one input variable at a time
several input variables together
Zeva is a risk analyst. She is conducting a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the riskiness of a new project that her
company is considering investing in. Her risk analysis report includes the sensitivity curve shown on the graph.
NPV (Millions of dollars)
Base Case
NPV
Base Case
Price
-30 -24 -18 -12 -6 0 6 12
18 24 30
CHANGES IN SELLING PRICE (Percent)
This curve implies that the project is very sensitive to changes in the price of the product. The project's NPV is likely
to become negative if the price for which the product can be sold decreases by
Which of the following is not a benefit of using sensitivity analysis?
A. More people can see the impact of their ideas on the project.B. The use of a spreadsheet program increases the accuracy of the projections.C. What will happen is not known in advance so a variety of options can be exploredprior to making a decision.D. A well-written spreadsheet will allow for a variety of questions to be answered in aminimal amount of time.
If we are comparing projects of unequal sizes (requiring unequal amounts of investment), screening methods like NPV are only good for deciding if a product or service is worth considering along with other valid opportunities. In that case, we have to use a ranking method after screening the projects. How do we do that?
For example, you have been given the following information: (n = 3; i = 10%) How will you rank these projects?
Project R
Project S
Project T
Investment required
$13,000
$59,000
$89,000
Annual net cash flows
$6,000
$25,000
$43,000
99
Chapter 7 Solutions
UPENN: LOOSE LEAF CORP.FIN W/CONNECT
Ch. 7 - Forecasting Risk What is forecasting risk? In...Ch. 7 - Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario Analysis What is...Ch. 7 - Prob. 3CQCh. 7 - Break-Even Point As a shareholder of a firm that...Ch. 7 - Prob. 5CQCh. 7 - Real Options Why does traditional NPV analysis...Ch. 7 - Real Options The Mango Republic has just...Ch. 7 - Prob. 8CQCh. 7 - Prob. 9CQCh. 7 - Project Analysis You are discussing a project...
Ch. 7 - Sensitivity Analysis and Break-Even Point We are...Ch. 7 - Prob. 2QPCh. 7 - Prob. 3QPCh. 7 - Prob. 4QPCh. 7 - Prob. 5QPCh. 7 - Decision Trees Ang Electronics. Inc., has...Ch. 7 - Decision Trees The manager for a growing firm is...Ch. 7 - Prob. 8QPCh. 7 - Prob. 9QPCh. 7 - Financial Break-Even Niko has purchased a brand...Ch. 7 - Prob. 11QPCh. 7 - Prob. 12QPCh. 7 - Project Analysis You are considering a new product...Ch. 7 - Project Analysis McGilla Golf has decided to sell...Ch. 7 - Prob. 17QPCh. 7 - Prob. 18QPCh. 7 - Prob. 19QPCh. 7 - Prob. 20QPCh. 7 - Prob. 21QPCh. 7 - Option to Wait Hickock Mining is evaluating when...Ch. 7 - Abandonment Decisions Allied Products, Inc., is...Ch. 7 - Prob. 24QPCh. 7 - Scenario Analysis You are the financial analyst...Ch. 7 - Scenario Analysis Consider a project to supply...Ch. 7 - Sensitivity Analysis In Problem 26, suppose youre...Ch. 7 - Prob. 28QPCh. 7 - Prob. 29QPCh. 7 - Financial Break-Even The Cornchopper Company is...
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- Assume that Allied’s average project has a coefficient of variation (CV) in the range of 1.25 to 1.75.Would the lemon juice project be classified as high risk, average risk, or low risk? What type of risk isbeing measured here?arrow_forwardIndustry is evaluating two different manufacturing systems (Alpha and Beta): Possible Outcome Probability Rate of Return Alpha System Rate of Return Beta System Optimistic .35 .40 .15 Most likely .45 .25 .30 Pessimistic .20 (.10) (.20) Which manufacturing system provides the lowest expected return? why? Alpha System Beta System Not enough informationarrow_forwardAre there conditions under which a firm might be better off if it were to choose a machine with a rapid traditional payback period, PB, rather than one with a larger NPV? Explain.arrow_forward
- Which of the following is FALSE regarding scenario and sensitivity analysis? Scenario analysis considers a best case (within reason) and worst case (within reason) scenario, along with a base case. () Scenario analysis focuses on stand-alone risk, since it doesn't consider the project as a part of the larger firm. Sensitivity analysis considers that the project is one part of a larger firm. Sensitivity analysis shows how changes in a single variable affects NPV or IRR. Scenario analysis assumes all variables take their worst (reasonable) values simultaneously, and best (reasonable) values simultaneously. Previous Page Next Page Page 21 of 3arrow_forwardBriefly review the sensitivity analysis that is presented in the case exhibits. Under what circumstances is this project financially attractive? What bets were the company making when they went ahead with the project? DO NOT HAVE TO PERFORM YOUR OWN SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS. YOU ARE TO INTERPRET THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS THAT IS GIVEN.arrow_forward_________________ the more sensitive the decision to the particular parameter being considered, i.e. small changes in the estimate could change the project decision from accept to reject. a. None of the options b. The Lower the sensitivity margin c. Lower or higher the sensitivity margin d. The higher the sensitivity marginarrow_forward
- 2) The expected return of Project Y is at least equal to the expected return of Project X, and the variance of Y is less than that of X. What would you do? A) Prefer Project Y B) Accept both projects C) Prefer Project X D) Reject both projects.arrow_forwardWhen you assign the highest anticipated sales and price and the lowest anticipated costs to a project, you are analyzing the project under the condition known as: base-case scenario analysis best-case sensitivity analysis worst-case sensitivity analysis best-case scenario analysis worst-case scenario analysisarrow_forwardIf a firm is planning for an international project, the manager should understand that the project's NPV would be ______ by the size of the initial investment and the project's required rate of return. A. positively; negatively B. positively; positively C. negatively; negatively D. negatively; positivelyarrow_forward
- Which project below would you consider acceptable? One whose IRR is greater than the MARR One whose MARR is greater than the IRR O One whose RIC is less than the MARR One whose MARR is greater than the MIRRarrow_forwardWhy do most of the engineers prefer Rate of Return Analysis to the PW method?arrow_forwardWhat happens if we wish to increase a constraint RHS value beyond the allowable increase/decrease shown in your sensitivity analysis? a.no effect on the optimal solution b.the problem should be solved again to find the new optimal solution c.there will no longer be a feasible solution for the problem. d.we can still use the dual price of the original problem to get the new optimal objective function value.arrow_forward
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