Essentials of Business Analytics (MindTap Course List)
Essentials of Business Analytics (MindTap Course List)
2nd Edition
ISBN: 9781305627734
Author: Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran, Michael J. Fry, Jeffrey W. Ohlmann, David R. Anderson
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Chapter 8, Problem 10P

(a)

To determine

Construct the time-series plot and identify the pattern.

(b)

To determine

Use exponential smoothing with α=0.4 to develop a forecast of demand for week 13.

Find the value of MSE.

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Storrs Cycles has just started selling the new Cyclonemountain bike, with monthly sales as shown in the table. First,co-owner Bob Day wants to forecast by exponential smoothingby initially setting February’s forecast equal to January’s saleswith a = .1. Co-owner Sherry Snyder wants to use a three-periodmoving average.   a) Is there a strong linear trend in sales over time?b) Fill in the table with what Bob and Sherry each forecast forMay and the earlier months, as relevant.c) Assume that May’s actual sales figure turns out to be 405.Complete the table’s columns and then calculate the meanabsolute deviation for both Bob’s and Sherry’s methods.d) Based on these calculations, which method seems moreaccurate?
After its move in 1990 to La Junta, Colorado, and its new initiatives, the DeBourgh Manufacturing Company began an upward climb of record sales. Suppose the figures shown here are the DeBourgh monthly sales figures from January 2001 through December 2009 (in $1,000s). a) Produce a time series plot. Are there any trends evident in the data? Does DeBourgh have a seasonal component to its sales? b) Deseasonalize the data using Multiplicative model with a 0.5 weighted moving average. Produce a time series plot of the deseasonalized data and add a trendline. c) Forecast the sales from January to December of the year 2010. d) Include a discussion of the general direction of sales and any seasonal tendencies that might be occurrinG Month 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 January 139.7 165.1 177.8 228.6 266.7 431.8 381 431.8 495.3 February 114.3 177.8 203.2 254 317.5 457.2 406.4 444.5 533.4 March 101.6 177.8 228.6 266.7 368.3 457.2 431.8 495.3 635 April 152.4 203.2…
Suppose that the Perpetual Help College of Rizal had the following record of its growth of enrollment from 2011 -2020. Year Enrolment Year Enrolment 2011 5,200 2016 7,000 2012 5,500 2017 8,800 2013 6,000 2018 9,400 2014 6,500 2019 9,600 2015 6,800 2020 10,500 c) Using exponential smoothing and smoothing constant of .30 and 2011 previous forecast of 5200, develop a forecast of enrolment from 2012 to 2021. d) Forecast enrollment using Trend line Projection from 2011 to 2021. e) Evaluate forecast accuracy of each forecast model using MSE .…

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Essentials of Business Analytics (MindTap Course List)

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