Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains (11th Edition)
Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains (11th Edition)
11th Edition
ISBN: 9780133872132
Author: Lee J. Krajewski, Manoj K. Malhotra, Larry P. Ritzman
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 8, Problem 9P

Consider the sales data for Computer Success given in Problem 7.

  1. Use a 3-month weighted moving average to forecast the sales for the months April through December. Use weights of ( 4 / 8 ) , ( 3 / 8 ) , and ( 1 / 8 ) , giving more weight to more recent data.
  2. Use exponential smoothing with α = 0.6 to forecast the sales for the months April through December. Assume that the initial forecast for January was $3,200. Start error measurement in April.
  3. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute deviation as the performance criterion, with error measurement beginning in April. Which method would you recommend?
  4. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute percent error as the performance criterion, with error measurement beginning in April. Which method would you recommend?
  5. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean squared error as time performance criterion, with error measurement beginning in April. Which beginning would you recommend?

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The past two years sales at ACSR Inc. were 3 million and 5 million. Their forecast team used a two-period moving average to forecast its sales this year. But the actual sales for this year were 5 million. Now, the forecast team wants to forecast its sales for next year by using exponential smoothing with alpha equals 0.6.   What is the forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .6?           2. If we decide to use an alpha of .2 instead of .6, will we be ‘weighting the error from the previous period higher or the Forecast from the previous period higher?  Explain briefly or show using math!   (In this question I am asking if we change the alpha to a lower alpha, what will be the effect – what will we be ‘weighing’ as more important?)
Consider the monthly sales data of a company for last year as well as first six month data for current year. Use a three- quarter weighted moving average, Forecast the sales of company for 3rd Quarter of current year. Use Weights of 4/7, 2/7 and 1/7, giving more weight to more recent data. Note, the 1ist quarter is Jan, Feb and March , 2nd quarter is Apr, May, June, 3rd quarter is July, Aug and Sept, and 4th quarter is Oct, Nov and Dec.  Month Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov DecLast Year 100 125 135 175 185 200 150 140 130 200 225 250Current Year 125 135 135 190 200 190
Consider the monthly sales data of a company for last year as well as first six-month data for current year. Use a three- quarter weighted moving average, Forecast the sales of company for 3rd Quarter of current year. Use Weights of 4/7, 2/7 and 1/7, giving more weight to more recent data. Note, the 1ist quarter is Jan, Feb and March, 2nd quarter is Apr, May, June, 3rd quarter is July, Aug and Sept, and 4th quarter is Oct, Nov and Dec. Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Last Yr 100 125 135 175 185 200 150 140 130 200 225 250 Current Yr 125 135 135 190 200 190

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Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains (11th Edition)

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