Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains (11th Edition)
11th Edition
ISBN: 9780133872132
Author: Lee J. Krajewski, Manoj K. Malhotra, Larry P. Ritzman
Publisher: PEARSON
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Textbook Question
Chapter 8, Problem 19P
Create an Excel spreadsheet on your own that can make combination forecasts for Problem 18. Create a combination forecast using all four techniques from Problem 18. Give each technique an equal weight. Create a second combination forecast by using the three techniques that seem best based on MAD. Give equal weight to each technique. Finally, create a third forecast by equally weighting the two best techniques. Calculate CFE, MAD, MSE, and MAPE for the combination forecast. Are these forecasts better or worse than the
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The purpose of this assignment is to give you an opportunity to create a forecast based on data and interpret the results. You will also gain more practice with Minitab.
Forecasting future commodity prices can be important for many production operations. One such commodity is the price of aluminum ($US per metric ton). For this assignment, you are asked to use Minitab to create two forecasts based upon the data provided below. First, create a one period forecast based upon a three month moving average. Second, create a one period forecast based upon exponential smoothing (using a smoothing weight of 0.95). Compare the two forecasts based upon the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure of accuracy. Interpret your results.
The Data:
Month
Price
Jan-18
2,209.73
Feb-18
2,181.79
Mar-18
2,069.24
Apr-18
2,254.69
May-18
2,299.67
Jun-18
2,237.62
Jul-18
2,082.24
Aug-18
2,051.51
Sep-18
2,026.46
Oct-18
2,029.86
Nov-18
1,938.51
Dec-18
1,920.38
Jan-19
1,853.72
Feb-19…
Calculate the forecast for Week 16 using
- a 2-period moving average
- a 3-period moving average
Compute MSE for the two models and compare the results and which model provides the best forecast?
Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2) were used to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are as follows:
PREDICTED DEMAND
Period
Demand
F1
F2
1
68
61
60
2
75
67
66
3
70
75
70
4
74
69
67
5
69
74
72
6
72
67
78
7
80
74
78
8
78
76
80
Click here for the Excel Data File
a. Compute MAD for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)
Chapter 8 Solutions
Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains (11th Edition)
Ch. 8 - Figure 8.9 shows summer air visibility...Ch. 8 - Kay and Michael Passe publish What‘s...Ch. 8 - Demand for oil changes at Garcia’s Garage has...Ch. 8 - Prob. 2PCh. 8 - Ohio Swiss Milk Products manufactures and...Ch. 8 - A manufacturing firm has developed a skills test,...Ch. 8 - The materials handling manager of a manufacturing...Ch. 8 - Marianne Kramer, the owner of Handy Man Rentals,...Ch. 8 - Sales for the past 12 months at Computer Success...Ch. 8 - Bradley’s Copiers sells and repairs photocopy...
Ch. 8 - Consider the sales data for Computer Success given...Ch. 8 - A convenience store recently started to carry a...Ch. 8 - Community Federal Bank in Dothan, Alabama,...Ch. 8 - The number of heart surgeries performed at...Ch. 8 - The following data are for calculator sales in...Ch. 8 - Prob. 14PCh. 8 - Forrest and Dan make boxes of chocolates for which...Ch. 8 - The manager of Alaina’s Garden Center must make...Ch. 8 - The manager of a utility company in the Texas...Ch. 8 - Franklin Tooling, Inc., manufactures specialty...Ch. 8 - Create an Excel spreadsheet on your own that can...Ch. 8 - Prob. 20PCh. 8 - Using the data in Problem 20 and the Time-Series...Ch. 8 - Prob. 22PCh. 8 - Cannister, Inc., specializes in the manufacture of...Ch. 8 - The Midwest Computer Company serves a large number...Ch. 8 - A certain food item at P=0.20 (with a combination...Ch. 8 - Prob. 26PCh. 8 - Prob. 27PCh. 8 - A manufacturing firm seeks to develop a better...Ch. 8 - How much does the forecasting process at Deckers...Ch. 8 - Prob. 2VCCh. 8 - What factors make forecasting at Deckers...Ch. 8 - Prob. 4VCCh. 8 - Prob. 5VCCh. 8 - Comment on the forecasting system being used by...Ch. 8 - Develop your own forecast for bow rakes for each...
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