Critical Thinking: Did the NFL Rule Change Have the Desired Effect?
Among 460 overtime National Football League (NFL) games between 1974 and 2011, 252 of the teams that won the over-time coin toss went on to win the game. During those years, a team could win the coin toss and march down the field to win the game with a field goal, and the other team would never get possession of the ball. That just didn’t seem fair. Starting in 2012, the overtime rules were changed. In the first three years with the new overtime rules, 47 games were decided in overtime and the team that won the coin toss won 24 of those games.
Analyzing the Results
1. First explore the two proportions of overtime wins. Does there appear to be a difference? If so, how?
2. Create a claim to be tested, then test it. Use a hypothesis test as well as a confidence interval.
3. What do you conclude about the effectiveness of the over- time rule change?
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