Mylab Operations Management With Pearson Etext -- Access Card -- For Operations Management: Sustainability And Supply Chain Management (13th Edition)
13th Edition
ISBN: 9780135225899
Author: Jay Heizer, Barry Render, Chuck Munson
Publisher: PEARSON
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Concept explainers
Question
Chapter A, Problem 10P
Summary Introduction
To determine: Which decision alternative maximizes the expected value of the payoff.
Introduction:
EMV:Expected monetary value (EMV) is expected value or payout that has different possible state of nature, each with their associated possibilities.
Expert Solution & Answer
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solution
Students have asked these similar questions
A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table.
States of Nature
Alternative
High
Low
Buy
100
Rent
60
35
Lease
60
45
Using the Maximax criterion, what is the best decision and the expected payoff?
Best decision
Payoff
A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table.
States of Nature
Alternative
High
Low
100
Buy
Rent
80
45
Lease
50
40
Using the Maximin criterion, what is the best decision and the expected payoff?
Best decision
Payoff
What is the best of the worst decision
alternative?
DİHL Co. is a Danao-based logistics
company owned by Engr. Donald H. Lalican.
Anticipating the growing demand for
delivery services, he developed a strategic
plan for the year 2022. The options are to
hire additional delivery crews in their
Mandaue facility, construct a new facility in
Talisay City, or subcontract Ohlala Move, a
small-time company. A study conducted by
the marketing department forecasted the
following payoff values, which are
summarized in the table below. The values
are expressed as gains and alpha = 0.6.
States of Nature
Decision Alternatives
Failure
Low
Moderate
High
Hire additional Drivers in Mandaue
-450,000
-250,000
250,000
500,000
Construct a facility in Talisay
-800,000
-400,000
300,000
700,000
Subcontracting Ohlala Move
-100,000
-10,000
150,000
300,000
Hire Additional Drivers in Mandaue
Construct a Facility in Talisay
O Subcontracting Ohlala Move
Both Construct a Facility in Talisay and
Subcontracting Ohlala…
Chapter A Solutions
Mylab Operations Management With Pearson Etext -- Access Card -- For Operations Management: Sustainability And Supply Chain Management (13th Edition)
Ch. A - Prob. 1DQCh. A - Prob. 2DQCh. A - Prob. 3DQCh. A - Prob. 4DQCh. A - Prob. 5DQCh. A - Question: 6. Explain how decision trees might be...Ch. A - Prob. 7DQCh. A - Prob. 8DQCh. A - Question 9. Identify the five steps in analyzing a...Ch. A - Prob. 10DQ
Ch. A - Question 11. The expected value criterion is...Ch. A - Question 12. When are decision trees most useful?Ch. A - Given the following conditional value table,...Ch. A - Prob. 2PCh. A - Prob. 3PCh. A - Jeffrey Helm owns a health and fitness center...Ch. A - Prob. 5PCh. A - Prob. 6PCh. A - Prob. 7PCh. A - Prob. 8PCh. A - Prob. 9PCh. A - Prob. 10PCh. A - The University of Miami bookstore stocks textbooks...Ch. A - Palmer Jam Company is a small manufacturer of...Ch. A - Prob. 21PCh. A - Prob. 22PCh. A - Prob. 23PCh. A - Prob. 13PCh. A - Prob. 24PCh. A - Prob. 25PCh. A - Prob. 26PCh. A - Philip Musa can build either a large video rental...Ch. A - Prob. 14PCh. A - Prob. 29PCh. A - Prob. 15PCh. A - Prob. 16PCh. A - Prob. 17P
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- Develop a decision analysis formulation of this problem by identifying the decision alternatives, state of nature, and the payoff table.arrow_forwardYou are given the following payoff table (in units of thousands of dollars) for a decision analysis problem: S1 220 S2 170 S3 A1 110 A2 200 150 180 Prior Probability 0.5 0.4 0.1 (a) Which alternative should be chosen under the maximin payoff criterion? (b) Which alternative should be chosen under the maximum likelihood criterion? (c)Which alternative should be chosen under Bayes' decision rule?arrow_forwardA decision maker has prepared the following payoff table. States of Nature Alternative High Low Buy 90 10 Rent 60 35 Lease 50 40 Using the Maximax criterion, what is the best decision and the expected payoff? Best decision Payoff 3 of 5arrow_forward
- Robert Ragsdale is trying to decide if he should purchase repair and replacement insurance on a new laptop computer that he is planning to purchase. The policy costs $400.00 at the time of purchase, and over the next three years will replace the laptop if it is stolen or repair it if it is broken. The following table contains the total costs of this decision. Which alternative is best, according to each of the following decision criteria? Maximin Maximax Laplace Minimax regretarrow_forwardWhat is the best decision alternative under Maximax criterion? (Provide complete decision table solution) DIHL Co. is a Danao-based logistics company owned by Engr. Donald H. Lalican. Anticipating the growing demand for delivery services, he developed a strategic plan for the year 2022. The options are to hire additional delivery crews in their Mandaue facility, construct a new facility in Talisay City, or subcontract Ohlala Move, a small- time company. A study conducted by the marketing department forecasted the following payoff values, which are summarized in the table below. The values are expressed as gains and alpha = 0.6. States of Nature Decision Alternatives Failure Low Moderate High Hire additional Drivers in Mandaue -450,000 -250,000 250,000 500,000 Construct a facility in Talisay -800,000 -400,000 300,000 700,000 Subcontracting Ohlala Move -100,000 -10,000 150,000 300,000 Hire Additional Drivers in Mandaue Construct a Facility in Talisay O Subcontracting Ohlala Move Both…arrow_forwardA payoff table is given as: S1 S2 S3 D1 250 750 500 D2 300 -250 1200 D3 500 500 600 (a) What choice should be made by the optimistic decision maker? (b) What choice should be made by the conservative decision maker? (c) What decision should be made under minimal regret? (d) If the probabilities of d1, d2, and d3 are .2, .5, and .3, respectively, then what choice should be made under expected value?arrow_forward
- Come up with a decision using each of the different criteria under conditions of uncertainty using the table below. The payoff values are expressed as LOSSES.arrow_forwardThis is the same payoff table used in questions 2 and 3. Below is a payoff table that lists four mortgage options: Decision 1-year ARM 3-year ARM 5-year Arm 30-year fixed Rates Rise $66,645 $62,857 $55,895 $52,276 Outcomes Rates Stable $43,650 $47,698 $50,894 $52,276 4) Which of the following decisions has the best average payoff? CA. 3-year ARM B. 1-year ARM CC. 5-year ARM CD. 30-year Fixed Rates Fall $38,560 $42,726 $48,134 $52,276arrow_forwardThe following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature. Decision Alternative If S1 d₁ d₂ States of Nature then ? $1 240 90 90 15 The probabilities for the states of nature are P(S₁) = 0.65, P(s₂) = 0.15, and P(s3) = 0.20. (a) What is the optimal decision strategy if perfect information were available? ; If S₂ then ? 90 65 ; If S3 then ? (b) What is the expected value for the decision strategy developed in part (a)? î (c) Using the expected value approach, what is the recommended decision without perfect information? What is its expected value? The recommended decision without perfect information is ? EV = (d) What is the expected value of perfect information? EVPI = îarrow_forward
- A farmer is trying to decide if continuing to farm is the correct thing to do. Yields on his fields have been declining over the past several seasons. He has an offer on the table from a corporate farmer to lease his land for the season for $15,000. Whether or not he accepts this offer depends on how well his fields will produce and the market value of his crops. If yield is high, the farmer will make $50,000 and there is a 10% possibility of this occurring. If yield is medium, the farmer will make $20,000 and there is a 50% possibility of this occurring. If yield is low, the farmer will make $12,000 and there is a 40% possibility of this occurring. Draw a decision tree for this problem. What should the farmer do according to the decision tree? If the farmer could get more information that would help him predict his yield, what is the maximum amount that he should pay for this information?arrow_forwardA television network earns an average of $1.6 million each season from a hit program and loses an averageof $400,000 each season on a program that turns out to be a flop, and of all programs picked up by thisnetwork in recent years, 25% turn out to be hits and 75% turn out to be flops. a) Construct a decision tree to help the television network identify the strategy that maximizes itsexpected profit in responding to a newly proposed television program. Make sure to label all decisionand chance nodes and include appropriate costs, payoffs and probabilities. b) What should the network do? What is their expected profit? c) The network can conduct market research to determine whether a program will be a hit or a flop. Ifthe market research report is perfectly reliable, what is the most the network should be willing to payfor it? Can you please include pictures of excel sheets. Having trouble determining what the excel sheet should look likearrow_forward1) A television network earns an average of $1.6 million each season from a hit program and loses an average of $400,000 each season on a program that turns out to be a flop, and of all programs picked up by this network in recent years, 25% turn out to be hits and 75% turn out to be flops. a) Construct a decision tree to help the television network identify the strategy that maximizes itsexpected profit in responding to a newly proposed television program. Make sure to label all decisionand chance nodes and include appropriate costs, payoffs and probabilities. b) What should the network do? What is their expected profit? c) The network can conduct market research to determine whether a program will be a hit or a flop. If the market research report is perfectly reliable, what is the most the network should be willing to pay for it? 2) A buyer for a large sporting goods store chain must place orders for professional footballs with the football manufacturer six months prior to the…arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,