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a
Interpretation:Best alternative by selecting maximin criteria.
Concept Introduction: Maximin criteria is to minimize the loss of payoffs by selecting the maximum alternatives.
b
Interpretation:Best alternative by selecting maximax criteria.
Concept Introduction: Maximax criteria is to maximize the profit of payoffs by selecting the maximum alternatives.
c
Interpretation:Best alternative by selecting laplace criteria.
Concept Introduction:Laplace criterion is equally likely criterion in which alternate in selected which has the highest average.
d
Interpretation:Best alternative by selecting minimax regret criteria.
Concept Introduction:Minimax Regret Criteria − The goal is to select the decision with the least regret. Regret is calculated by subtracting the payoff of each decision corresponding to the event from the maximum payoff of the event.
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Chapter A Solutions
Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains, Student Value Edition Plus MyLab Operations Management with Pearson eText -- Access Card Package (11th Edition)
- A real estate investor has the opportunity to purchase land currently zoned residential. If the county board approves a request to rezone the property as commercial within the next year, the investor will be able to lease the land to a large discount firm that wants to open a new store on the property. However, if the zoning change is not approved, the investor will have to sell the property at a loss. Profits (in thousands of dollars) are shown in the following payoff table: a. If the probability that the rezoning will be approved is 0.5, what decision is recommended? What is the expected profit? b. The investor can purchase an option to buy the land. Under the option, the investor maintains the rights to purchase the land anytime during the next three months while learning more about possible resistance to the rezoning proposal from area residents. Probabilities are as follows: Let H = High resistance to rezoning L = Low resistance to rezoning P(H) = 0.55 P(S1 | H) =…arrow_forwardA real estate investor has the opportunity to purchase land currently zoned residential. If the county board approves a request to rezone the property as commercial within the next year, the investor will be able to lease the land to a large discount firm that wants to open a new store on the property. However, if the zoning change is not approved, the investor will have to sell the property at a loss. Profits (in thousands of dollars) are shown in the following payoff table: State of Nature Rezoning Approved Rezoning Not Approved Decision Alternative S1 S2 Purchase, d1 590 -160 Do not purchase, d2 0 0 If the probability that the rezoning will be approved is 0.5, what decision is recommended?Recommended decision: What is the expected profit?Expected profit: $ fill in the blank 2 The investor can purchase an option to buy the land. Under the option, the investor maintains the rights to purchase the land anytime during the next three months while learning more…arrow_forwardRuka construction Company is considering bidding on a contract for a new office building complex. First company manger must decide whether to bid on the contract or not. The cost of preparing the bid is $20,000. The company has a 0.75 probability of winning the contract if it submits a bid. If the company wins the bid, it will have to pay $1,500,000 to become a partner in the project. The company will then consider doing a market research study to forecast demand prior to beginning construction. The cost of this study is $100,000. The possible outcomes of the market research study show there is 45% for high interest and 35% for moderate and 20% for low interest for office building. The manager of the company regardless of the result of market study or even without doing market study should decide whether to build the complex or to sell the rights in the project to another developer. If company decides to build the complex, cost of building will be $10,000,000. Based on market study…arrow_forward
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- What is the best decision alternative under Maximax criterion? (Provide complete decision table solution) DIHL Co. is a Danao-based logistics company owned by Engr. Donald H. Lalican. Anticipating the growing demand for delivery services, he developed a strategic plan for the year 2022. The options are to hire additional delivery crews in their Mandaue facility, construct a new facility in Talisay City, or subcontract Ohlala Move, a small- time company. A study conducted by the marketing department forecasted the following payoff values, which are summarized in the table below. The values are expressed as gains and alpha = 0.6. States of Nature Decision Alternatives Failure Low Moderate High Hire additional Drivers in Mandaue -450,000 -250,000 250,000 500,000 Construct a facility in Talisay -800,000 -400,000 300,000 700,000 Subcontracting Ohlala Move -100,000 -10,000 150,000 300,000 Hire Additional Drivers in Mandaue Construct a Facility in Talisay O Subcontracting Ohlala Move Both…arrow_forwardThe White Fish company is launching its new food for sale in supermarkets throughout Illinois. The sales department is convinced that its spicy fish dip will be a great success. The marketing department is considering an intensive advertising campaign. The advertising campaign will cost $1,900,000 and if successful (70% chance) produce $9,600,000 in added revenue. If the campaign is less successful (30% chance), the added revenue is estimated at only $4.200,000. If no advertising is used, the revenue is estimated at $6,500,000 if customers are receptive (with probability 0.75) and $3.200,000 with probability 0.25 if they are not receptive. a. Draw the associated decision tree. b. Roll Back Tree: Should White Fish invest in an intensive advertising campaign? c. Perform sensitivity analysis on probability of successful advertising campaign, which is now 0.7. Detemine the range of the probability of success for which the current decision is still the best choice. d. Perform sensitivity…arrow_forward2. A real estate developer must decide on a plan for developing a certain piece of property. After careful consideration, the developer has two acceptable alternatives: residential proposal or commercial proposal. The main factor or state of nature that will influence the profitability of the development is whether or not a shopping center is built close by and the size of the shopping center. There is a 20% chance of no center being built, a 50% chance of a medium shopping center built, and a 30% chance of a large shopping center. If the developer selects the residential proposal and no center is built, he has a further set of options: do nothing $400,000 payoff; build a small shopping center himself $700,000 payoff; or put in a park resulting in $800,000 payoff. Should a medium shopping center be built nearby, his payoff for residential would be $1,600,000 and large shopping center results in a $1,200,000 payoff. If the developer selects the commercial proposal and no center is…arrow_forward
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,
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