GloboSnax has an overall 10% success rate when introducing new products. (Suppose success here means a product achieves a certain target market share within 2 years of its introduction.) Before roll-out, a secret forecasting committee assesses each new product, and calls it a “winner" or “loser." In the past, the committee has done reasonably well in distinguishing between successful and unsuccessful products:

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GloboSnax has an overall 10% success rate when introducing new products. (Suppose success here means a product
achieves a certain target market share within 2 years of its introduction.)
Before roll-out, a secret forecasting committee assesses each new product, and calls it a "winner" or “loser." In the past,
the committee has done reasonably well in distinguishing between successful and unsuccessful products:
• 90% of products that went on to succeed were correctly called “winners" by the committee.
• 80% of products that went on to fail were correctly called “losers" by the committee.
A new product, CocoChips is evaluated and labeled a “winner" by the committee.
4.
Based on the information available, calculate the probability that CocoChips will succeed, given the
"winner" classification from the forecasting committee. (Hint: you can use a 2x2 table, and/or Bayes Rule formula
to help compute your answer.)
Transcribed Image Text:GloboSnax has an overall 10% success rate when introducing new products. (Suppose success here means a product achieves a certain target market share within 2 years of its introduction.) Before roll-out, a secret forecasting committee assesses each new product, and calls it a "winner" or “loser." In the past, the committee has done reasonably well in distinguishing between successful and unsuccessful products: • 90% of products that went on to succeed were correctly called “winners" by the committee. • 80% of products that went on to fail were correctly called “losers" by the committee. A new product, CocoChips is evaluated and labeled a “winner" by the committee. 4. Based on the information available, calculate the probability that CocoChips will succeed, given the "winner" classification from the forecasting committee. (Hint: you can use a 2x2 table, and/or Bayes Rule formula to help compute your answer.)
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