The sales of XYZ company for the previous three periods are 45, 42, and 43 respectively. Estimate the sales of the fourth period by exponential smoothing with 0.5. Use naïve as a starting/initial forecast (Round to 2 decimals) O a. None is correct O b. 43.25 O c. 41 O d. 41.92 O e. 42.8
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
- Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). Year Sales 1 450 2 502 3 520 4 570 5 575 a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method aresales (round your response to one decimal place). b) The MAD for a linear regression forecast is nothing sales (round your response to one decimal place).Historical sales data is shown below. Week Actual Forecast 1 328 300 2 272 3 245 4 223 5 205 6 Using alpha (α) = 0.2, what is the exponential smoothing forecast for period 6? Note: Round your answer to 2 decimal places. Note:- Do not provide handwritten solution. Maintain accuracy and quality in your answer. Take care of plagiarism. Answer completely. You will get up vote for sure.Amazon finds that sales in July are much greater relative to other months because of the Amazon Prime days in that month. Assuming that an exponential smoothing model is used for forecasting sales, what should the company best do to make the forecast for the next month (Aug) more reflective of reality? Please pick from the provided options. F t+1 = αDt + (1-α) Ft increase value of alpha decrease value of alpha stay with the same alpha decrease the expected forecast for the current month (Ft) On hearing our forecast, our clients probe - how sure are we about the forecast? Which measure of errror (among those stated below) should we best use to respond? a. Root MSE (RMSE) b. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) c. Mean forecast error (Avg. error) d. Cumulative forecast error (CFE)
- In each of the following, name the term defined or answer the question. Answers are listed at the bottom. Assume you are using exponential smoothing with an adjustment for trend. Demand is increasing at a very steady rate of about five units per week. Would you expect your alpha and delta parameters to becloser to one or zero? Your forecast is, on average, incorrect by about 10 percent. The average demand is 130 units. What is MAD? If the tracking signal for your forecast was consistently positive, you could then say this about your forecasting technique. What would you suggest to improve the forecast described in question 10?12. You know that sales are greatly influenced by theamount your firm advertises in the local paper. Whatforecasting technique would you suggest trying?13. What forecasting tool is most appropriate when closelyworking with customers dependent on your products?Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). Year Sales 1 455 2 510 3 518 4 570 5 590 a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method are 627.6627.6 sales (round your response to one decimal place). b) The MAD for a linear regression forecast is nothing sales (round your response to one decimal place).*** Can you please demonstrate how to do parts d, e, f? Given: Year Demand 1 7 2 9 3 5 4 9 5 Predict the value for Year 5: 2 year moving average What is MSE for 2 year moving average? 2 year moving average using 0.6 (weight for the oldest period) and 0.4(weight for most recent period Exponential smoothing, =0.2 and forecast for Year 1 = 5 Linear trend Which forecast method has the least amount of error using MAD? What is the coefficient?
- -Please answer part iv. which is related to the three part question posted some moments ago that has been answered already. iv. Determine which of the three forecasting technique is the most accurate usingMAD. -Also, please answer the below two parts to this new question. The following table shows the number of televisions sold over the last ten years at a local electronic store. Year TV Sales 1 150 2 300 3 480 4 600 5 630 6 640 7 700 8 825 9 900 10 980 i) Using trend projection, develop a formula to predict sales for years 11 and 12. You have to show all working. You will need to develop a table to calculate the slope and the intercept.ii) Use that formula to forecast television sales for years 11 and 12.(Use excel to show formulas used) Use regression or simple exponential smoothing with the following data. For exponential smoothing, assume the forecast for year 1 was the same as the actual and use an alpha of 0.7. Year Sales 1 290 2 340 3 400 4 410 5 400 Forecast Year 6 sales. Compute MAD.Clinic administrator Marc Schniederjans wants you to forecastpatient demand at the clinic for week 7 by using this data. You decide to use a weighted moving average method to find this fore-cast. Your method uses four actual demand levels, with weights of 0.333 on the present period, 0.25 one period ago, 0.25 two peri-ods ago, and 0.167 three periods ago. a) What is the value of your forecast? PXb) If instead the weights were 20, 15, 15, and 10, respectively, howwould the forecast change? Explain why. c) What if the weights were 0.40, 0.30, 0.20, and 0.10, respec-tively? Now what is the forecast for week 7?