What is the trend projection for time period 18 ?
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The following linear trend expression was estimated using a time series with 17 time periods. Tt = 129.2 + 3.8t. What is the trend projection for time period 18 ?
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- The US. import of wine (in hectoliters) for several years is given in Table 5. Determine whether the trend appearslinear. Ifso, and assuming the trend continues, in what year will imports exceed 12,000 hectoliters?Table 6 shows the population, in thousands, of harbor seals in the Wadden Sea over the years 1997 to 2012. a. Let x represent time in years starting with x=0 for the year 1997. Let y represent the number of seals in thousands. Use logistic regression to fit a model to these data. b. Use the model to predict the seal population for the year 2020. c. To the nearest whole number, what is the limiting value of this model?The following ratio-to-moving averages for the seasonally adjusted series were found by the decomposition method applied on a time series representing quarterly sales for January 2018 to December 2020 period: a. Calculate the Seasonal Index for every quarter. b. If the trend is described by the trend line T^ = 1,000 + 30 t, what is the forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021?
- Which of the following time series forecasting methods would not be used to forecast seasonal data?The following linear trend expression was estimated using a time series with 17 time periods. Tt =129.5 + 4.8 t The trend projection for time period 18 is select one: a. 134.3 b. 211.1 c. 215.9 d. 68.4Look at the four plots in Figure 14.2—the US unemployment rate, thedollar-pound exchange rate, the logarithm of the index of industrial production, and the percentage change in stock prices. Which of these seriesappears to be non-stationary? Which of them appears to resemble a randomwalk?
- Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of the year for a quarterly series: Quarter Seasonal Index Q1 73.9 Q2 84.1 Q3 107.1 Remember that the seasonal indices should average 100 so you should be able to infer the seasonal index for Q4. Furthermore, suppose that the estimated coeffcients from a regression of the deseasonalized series on Time are given below: Coefficients Intercept 2,964 Time 50.7 What is the trend projection of the series for period 119? (please round your answer to 1 decimalWhich of the time series forecasting methods would not be used to forecast seasonal data?Based on the equation that was created to, what would be the expected average number of leaves on a tree eight weeks after spring has started?
