STATISTICS F/BUS.+ECON.-18WK. MYSTATLAB
13th Edition
ISBN: 9780135901526
Author: MCCLAVE
Publisher: PEARSON
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Textbook Question
Chapter 14.5, Problem 14.30ACI
S&P 500 Stock Index (cont’d). Refer to Exercise 14.29. Suppose you want to use only the 2013-2014 S&P values to forecast the quarterly 2015 values. Calculate the forecasts using Holt’s model with w = .3 and v = .5. Repeat with w = .7 and v = .5.
Expert Solution & Answer
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solutionStudents have asked these similar questions
Compute the forecasted values for Yt for July and August in 2020 by using the modelsstated in (c) and (d)
Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series. The multiplicative model is appropriate and a four-quarter moving average will be used.
Year
Quarter
Time Series Value Yt
1
1
36
2
24
3
16
2
4
20
1
44
An estimate of the combined trend-cycle component (T2Ct) for Quarter 3 of Year 1 (used for estimating the de-trended values), when a four-quarter moving average is used, is
a. 24.
b. 26.
c. 28.
d. 25.
Storrs Cycles has just started selling the new Cyclonemountain bike, with monthly sales as shown in the table. First,co-owner Bob Day wants to forecast by exponential smoothingby initially setting February’s forecast equal to January’s saleswith a = .1. Co-owner Sherry Snyder wants to use a three-periodmoving average.
a) Is there a strong linear trend in sales over time?b) Fill in the table with what Bob and Sherry each forecast forMay and the earlier months, as relevant.c) Assume that May’s actual sales figure turns out to be 405.Complete the table’s columns and then calculate the meanabsolute deviation for both Bob’s and Sherry’s methods.d) Based on these calculations, which method seems moreaccurate?
Chapter 14 Solutions
STATISTICS F/BUS.+ECON.-18WK. MYSTATLAB
Ch. 14.1 - Explain in words how to construct a simple index.Ch. 14.1 - Explain in words how to calculate the following...Ch. 14.1 - Explain in words the difference between Laspeyres...Ch. 14.1 - The table below gives the prices for three...Ch. 14.1 - Refer to Exercise 14.4. The next table gives the...Ch. 14.1 - Annual median family income. The table below lists...Ch. 14.1 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. While overall...Ch. 14.1 - Quarterly single-family housing starts. The...Ch. 14.1 - Spot price of natural gas. The table shown in the...Ch. 14.1 - Employment in farm and nonfarm categories....
Ch. 14.1 - GOP personal consumption expenditures. The gross...Ch. 14.1 - GDP personal consumption expenditures (contd)....Ch. 14.1 - Weekly earnings for workers. The table in the next...Ch. 14.1 - Production and price of metals. The level or price...Ch. 14.2 - Describe the effect of selecting an exponential...Ch. 14.2 - A monthly time series is shown in the table to the...Ch. 14.2 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to the...Ch. 14.2 - Foreign fish production. Overfishing and pollution...Ch. 14.2 - Yearly price of gold. The price of gold is used by...Ch. 14.2 - Personal consumption in transportation. There has...Ch. 14.2 - OPEC crude oil imports. The data in the table...Ch. 14.2 - SP 500 Stock Index. Standard Poors 500 Composite...Ch. 14.5 - How does the choice of the smoothing constant w...Ch. 14.5 - Refer to Exercise 14.4 (p. 14-9). The table with...Ch. 14.5 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to...Ch. 14.5 - Quarterly single-family housing starts. Refer to...Ch. 14.5 - Consumer Price Index. The CPI measures the...Ch. 14.5 - OPEC crude oil imports. Refer to the annual OPEC...Ch. 14.5 - SP 500 Stock Index. Refer to the quarterly...Ch. 14.5 - SP 500 Stock Index (contd). Refer to Exercise...Ch. 14.5 - Monthly gold prices. The fluctuation of gold...Ch. 14.6 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to the...Ch. 14.6 - Annual U.S. craft beer production (contd). Refer...Ch. 14.6 - SP 500 Stock Index. Refer to your exponential...Ch. 14.6 - SP 500 Stock Index (contd). Refer to your Holt...Ch. 14.6 - Monthly gold prices. Refer to the monthly gold...Ch. 14.6 - US school enrollments. The next table reports...Ch. 14.8 - The annual price of a finished product (in cents...Ch. 14.8 - Retail sales in Quarters 14 over a 10-year period...Ch. 14.8 - What advantage do regression forecasts have over...Ch. 14.8 - Mortgage interest rates. The level at which...Ch. 14.8 - Price of natural gas. Refer to Exercise 14.9 (p....Ch. 14.8 - A gasoline tax on carbon emissions. In an effort...Ch. 14.8 - Predicting presidential elections. Researchers at...Ch. 14.8 - Life insurance policies in force. The table below...Ch. 14.8 - Graphing calculator sales. The next table presents...Ch. 14.8 - Prob. 14.47ACICh. 14.9 - Define autocorrelation. Explain why it is...Ch. 14.9 - For each case, indicate the decision regarding the...Ch. 14.9 - What do the following Durbin-Watson statistics...Ch. 14.9 - Company donations to charity. Refer to the Journal...Ch. 14.9 - Forecasting monthly car and truck sales. Forecasts...Ch. 14.9 - Predicting presidential elections. Refer to the...Ch. 14.9 - Mortgage interest rates. Refer to the data on...Ch. 14.9 - Price of natural gas. Refer to the annual data on...Ch. 14.9 - Life insurance policies in force. Refer to the...Ch. 14.9 - Modeling the deposit share of a retail bank....Ch. 14 - Insured Social Security workers. Workers insured...Ch. 14 - Insured Social Security workers (contd). Refer to...Ch. 14 - Retail prices of food items. In 1990, the average...Ch. 14 - Demand for emergency room services. With the...Ch. 14 - Mortgage interest rates. Refer to the annual...Ch. 14 - Price of Abbott Labs stock. The yearly closing...Ch. 14 - Price o f Abbott Labs stock (contd). Refer to...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14.65ACICh. 14 - Prob. 14.66ACICh. 14 - Quarterly GOP values (contd). Refer to Exercise...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14.68ACICh. 14 - Prob. 14.69ACICh. 14 - Prob. 14.70ACICh. 14 - IBM stock prices. Refer to Example 14.1 (p. 14-5)...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14.72ACI
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, statistics and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- For the following data, see image a. identify the critical path?b. how long will it take to complete this project?c. can activity D be delayed without delaying the entire project? if so, by how many weeks?d. Can activity C be delayed without delaying the entire project? If so, by how many weeks?how many weeks?e. What is the schedule for activity E? Topic: stochastic processesarrow_forwarda) With MAD as the criterion, the best forecasting model for this time series data is: A. Naïve approach B. 2-week SMA C. WMA with weights: 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 D. ES with alpha = 0.8 b) The demand forecast for Month 6 would be: A. 565 haircuts B. 574 haircuts C. 578 haircuts D. 584 haircutsarrow_forwardQ3 Part (A) Where investment (I), government expenditure (G), and gross domestic product (Y) are measured in US$ billion and ̂u is the regression residualIs there any problem of Hetroscedasticity in above model? How do you know?arrow_forward
- Which of the following time-series forecasting methods would not be used to forecast a time series that exhibits a linear trend with no seasonal or cyclical patterns? a. Dummy variable regression b. Linear trend regression c. Multiplicative Winter's method d. Holt Winter's double exponential smoothing e. Both A and Darrow_forwardSolve for the BIAS, MAD, MAPE and MSE of the following data: Period Actual Sales 1 21 2 25 3 28 4 31 5 35 6 25 7 29 8 30 9 24 10 26 11 27 12 24 13 27 Solve for d) exponential smoothing alpha of 0.2 and the first forecast is the same with the actual salesarrow_forwarda) If the prevalence rate is 50%, the sensitivity is 85%, and the specificity is 90%, what will the PPV value be? b) What are possible slider values that will produce a PPV value of 1? c) What are possible slider valuse that will produce an NPV value of 1? d) If sensitivity and specificity remain constant while prevalence decreases, what effect does that have on the PPV? e) If prevalence and specificity remain constant while sensitivity increases, what effect does that have on the NPV?arrow_forward
- Assume that there is a positive linear correlation between the variable R (return rate in percent of financial investment) and the variable t (age in years of the investment) given by the regression equation R = 2.5t + 5.3. 1- Without further information, can we assume there is a cause-and-effect relationship between the return rate and the age of the investment? 2- If the investment continues to grow at a constant rate, what is the expected return rate when the investment is 7 years old? 3- If the investment continues to grow at a constant rate, how old is the investment when the return rate is 32.8%?arrow_forwardUse the following linear regression equation to answer the questions. x1 = 1.5 + 3.6x2 – 7.8x3 + 1.8x4 (c) If x2 = 10, x3 = 7, and x4 = 7, what is the predicted value for x1? (Use 1 decimal place.) answer: -4.5 Suppose x3 and x4 were held at fixed but arbitrary values and x2 increased by 1 unit. What would be the corresponding change in x1? answer:3.6 Suppose x2 increased by 2 units. What would be the expected change in x1? answer: 7.2 Suppose x2 decreased by 4 units. What would be the expected change in x1? (e) Suppose that n = 13 data points were used to construct the given regression equation and that the standard error for the coefficient of x2 is 0.461. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the coefficient of x2. (Use 2 decimal places.) lower limit upper limit (f) Using the information of part (e) and level of significance 1%, test the claim that the coefficient of x2 is different from zero. (Use 2 decimal places.) t 7.81 t critical ±arrow_forwardIn a sample of adults, the OLS regression line for average hourly earnings (AHE in USD) on years of education (EDUC) has the following formula: AHE=3.5+2EDU Bob has five more years of education than Norma. The model predicts that Bob’s hourly earnings is Group of answer choices $9.00 more than Norma’s. $10.00 more than Norma’s. $10 less than Norma’s. $13.50 more than Norma’s. $5.50 more than Norma’s.arrow_forward
- All of the following models would be appropriate for data comprised of randomness and trend except: a. Holt’s exponential smoothing b. Holt-winter’s exponential smoothing c. Average change model d. Linear trend regression (time series decomposition) e. All of the above would be appropriatearrow_forwardA surgery intern has conducted a study of the sleeping habits of her colleagues and has developed a following regression equation: y-hat = 6 + 0.1X, where X is the number of hours working on one shift, and Y is the number of hours sleeping at night after that shift. Yvette worked 10 hours and slept 8 hours. What is Yvette’s residual? 0.1 1 6 7arrow_forwardSam was 28 inches tall on her first birthday, 50 inches tall on her 8th, and 62 inches tall on her 14th. (a) Let t represent Sam's age in years, and let h represent her height in inches. Determine the values of M, A, and k for a logistic model, h(t) = M / ( 1+ Ae-kt) , that fits the given height data. (b) What is Sam's theoretical long-term expected height? That is, what is limt➔∞h(t)? (c) At what age does the model predict that Sam will reach 95% of her expected maximum height?arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
- MATLAB: An Introduction with ApplicationsStatisticsISBN:9781119256830Author:Amos GilatPublisher:John Wiley & Sons IncProbability and Statistics for Engineering and th...StatisticsISBN:9781305251809Author:Jay L. DevorePublisher:Cengage LearningStatistics for The Behavioral Sciences (MindTap C...StatisticsISBN:9781305504912Author:Frederick J Gravetter, Larry B. WallnauPublisher:Cengage Learning
- Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World (7th E...StatisticsISBN:9780134683416Author:Ron Larson, Betsy FarberPublisher:PEARSONThe Basic Practice of StatisticsStatisticsISBN:9781319042578Author:David S. Moore, William I. Notz, Michael A. FlignerPublisher:W. H. FreemanIntroduction to the Practice of StatisticsStatisticsISBN:9781319013387Author:David S. Moore, George P. McCabe, Bruce A. CraigPublisher:W. H. Freeman
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
Statistics
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:John Wiley & Sons Inc
Probability and Statistics for Engineering and th...
Statistics
ISBN:9781305251809
Author:Jay L. Devore
Publisher:Cengage Learning
Statistics for The Behavioral Sciences (MindTap C...
Statistics
ISBN:9781305504912
Author:Frederick J Gravetter, Larry B. Wallnau
Publisher:Cengage Learning
Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World (7th E...
Statistics
ISBN:9780134683416
Author:Ron Larson, Betsy Farber
Publisher:PEARSON
The Basic Practice of Statistics
Statistics
ISBN:9781319042578
Author:David S. Moore, William I. Notz, Michael A. Fligner
Publisher:W. H. Freeman
Introduction to the Practice of Statistics
Statistics
ISBN:9781319013387
Author:David S. Moore, George P. McCabe, Bruce A. Craig
Publisher:W. H. Freeman
Time Series Analysis Theory & Uni-variate Forecasting Techniques; Author: Analytics University;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_X5q9FYLGxM;License: Standard YouTube License, CC-BY
Operations management 101: Time-series, forecasting introduction; Author: Brandoz Foltz;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaqZP36ool8;License: Standard YouTube License, CC-BY