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Textbook Question

Chapter 17.2, Problem 1E

Consider the following time series data.

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6
Value	18	13	16	11	17	14

Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

a. Mean absolute error.
b. Mean squared error.
c. Mean absolute percentage error.
d. What is the forecast for week 7?

Definition Definition Measure of central tendency that is the average of a given data set. The mean value is evaluated as the quotient of the sum of all observations by the sample size. The mean, in contrast to a median, is affected by extreme values. Very large or very small values can distract the mean from the center of the data. Arithmetic mean: The most common type of mean is the arithmetic mean. It is evaluated using the formula: μ = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N x i Other types of means are the geometric mean, logarithmic mean, and harmonic mean. Geometric mean: The nth root of the product of n observations from a data set is defined as the geometric mean of the set: G = x 1 x 2 ... x n n Logarithmic mean: The difference of the natural logarithms of the two numbers, divided by the difference between the numbers is the logarithmic mean of the two numbers. The logarithmic mean is used particularly in heat transfer and mass transfer. ln x 2 − ln x 1 x 2 − x 1 Harmonic mean: The inverse of the arithmetic mean of the inverses of all the numbers in a data set is the harmonic mean of the data. 1 1 x 1 + 1 x 2 + ...

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Chapter 17 Solutions

EBK MODERN BUSINESS STATISTICS WITH MIC

Ch. 17.2 - 1. Consider the following time series...Ch. 17.2 - 2. Refer to the time series data in exercise 1....Ch. 17.2 - Prob. 3E Ch. 17.2 - 4. Consider the following time series...Ch. 17.3 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 17.3 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 17.3 - Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in...Ch. 17.3 - Prob. 8E Ch. 17.3 - 9. With the gasoline time series data from Table...Ch. 17.3 - 10. With a smoothing constant of α = .2, equation...

Ch. 17.3 - For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages...Ch. 17.3 - Corporate triple-A bond interest rates for 12...Ch. 17.3 - The values of Alabama building contracts (in $...Ch. 17.3 - The following time series shows the sales of a...Ch. 17.3 - Ten weeks of data on the Commodity Futures Index...Ch. 17.3 - Prob. 16E Ch. 17.4 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 17.4 - Prob. 18E Ch. 17.4 - Prob. 19E Ch. 17.4 - Prob. 20E Ch. 17.4 - Prob. 21E Ch. 17.4 - Prob. 22E Ch. 17.4 - The president of a small manufacturing firm is...Ch. 17.4 - FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), a database...Ch. 17.4 - Prob. 25E Ch. 17.4 - Giovanni Food Products produces and sells frozen...Ch. 17.4 - The number of users of Facebook from 2004 through...Ch. 17.5 - Consider the following time series. Construct a...Ch. 17.5 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 17.5 - The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold)...Ch. 17.5 - Air pollution control specialists in southern...Ch. 17.5 - South Shore Construction builds permanent docks...Ch. 17.5 - Prob. 33E Ch. 17.5 - Prob. 34E Ch. 17.6 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 17.6 - Refer to exercise 35. Deseasonalize the time...Ch. 17.6 - The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold)...Ch. 17.6 - Three years of monthly lawn-maintenance expenses...Ch. 17.6 - Air pollution control specialists in southern...Ch. 17.6 - Electric power consumption is measured in...Ch. 17 - The weekly demand (in cases) for a particular...Ch. 17 - The following table reports the percentage of...Ch. 17 - United Dairies, Inc., supplies milk to several...Ch. 17 - Prob. 44SE Ch. 17 - The Garden Avenue Seven sells CDs of its musical...Ch. 17 - The Mayfair Department Store in Davenport, Iowa,...Ch. 17 - Prob. 47SE Ch. 17 - The Costello Music Company has been in business...Ch. 17 - Consider the Costello Music Company problem in...Ch. 17 - Prob. 50SE Ch. 17 - Refer to the Costello Music Company time series in...Ch. 17 - Prob. 52SE Ch. 17 - Refer to the Hudson Marine problem in exercise 52....Ch. 17 - Refer to the Hudson Marine problem in exercise...Ch. 17 - Refer to the Hudson Marine data in exercise...Ch. 17 - Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales The Vintage...Ch. 17 - The Carlson Department Store suffered heavy damage...

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Solution Summary: The author explains the formula for mean absolute error (MAE) as follows: Forecast error = Time series value – Forecast value.

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Chapter 17 Solutions