OPERATIONS MGMT - FIRST DAY
2018th Edition
ISBN: 9780135391242
Author: HEIZER
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 4, Problem 20P
Question
••• 4.20 Resolve Problem 4.19 with α =.1 and β =.8. Using MSE, determine which smoothing constants provide a better
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QUESTION 1 Sales of Fat Lips Burgers for 2012 are shown in the table below. 1. Do the 2 month SMA forecast 2. Do 2 month WMA forecast using the information below WMA – 2: last month, 1 – last 2 months 3. For the month of January 2012, the forecast was 438. Do the EMA forecast with the smoothing constant = 0.3. What is the forecast for Jan 2013? 4. Compare the forecasts above using MAD, MSE and MAPE. Which forecast method gives the least errors?
Month
Actual Sales
Forecast
Jan 2012
438
Feb
420
March
414
Apr
318
May
306
June
240
July
240
Aug
216
Sep
198
Oct
225
Nov
270
Dec
315
Jan 2013
-
QUESTION 2Dayang sells 5 kg bags of fertilizer to local farmers in Tg Karang. The sales data for the past 11 months is shown below.
Month
Demand (10s of bags)
1
4
2
6
3
4
4
5
5
10
6
8
7
7
8
9
9
12
10
14
11
15
1. Find the forecast for the month 12 using the methods below: a. Simple 4 month moving average (SMA) b.…
QUESTION ONE (b) The forecast of a product for the first week of January was 200 units, whereas the actual demand turned out to be 220 units.
i. Find the forecast for the week of January assuming the smoothing constant 0.2 α =
ii. Find the forecast for the third week of third week of January if the actual demand of the second week is 210 units
Question
Using a suitable moving average method, find the trend values.
Chapter 4 Solutions
OPERATIONS MGMT - FIRST DAY
Ch. 4 - What is a qualitative foretasting model, and when...Ch. 4 - Identify and briefly describe the two general...Ch. 4 - Identify the three forecasting time horizons....Ch. 4 - Briefly describe the steps that are used to...Ch. 4 - A skeptical manager asks what medium-range...Ch. 4 - Explain why such forecasting devices as moving...Ch. 4 - What is the basic difference between a weighted...Ch. 4 - What three methods are used to determine the...Ch. 4 - Research and briefly describe the Delphi...Ch. 4 - What is the primary difference between a...
Ch. 4 - Define time series.Ch. 4 - What effect does the value of the smoothing...Ch. 4 - Explain the value of seasonal indices in...Ch. 4 - Which forecasting technique can place the most...Ch. 4 - In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.Ch. 4 - What is the purpose of a tracking signal?Ch. 4 - Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the...Ch. 4 - What is the difference between a dependent and an...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries that are affected by...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries in which demand...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21DQCh. 4 - Prob. 22DQCh. 4 - The following gives the number of pints of type B...Ch. 4 - 4.2 a. Plot the above data on a graph. Do you...Ch. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years...Ch. 4 - A check-processing center uses exponential...Ch. 4 - The Carbondale Hospital is considering the...Ch. 4 - The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were...Ch. 4 - The actual demand for the patients at Omaha...Ch. 4 - Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last...Ch. 4 - Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop...Ch. 4 - Data collected on the yearly registrations for a...Ch. 4 - Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual and forecast demand...Ch. 4 - As you can see in the following table, demand for...Ch. 4 - Following are two weekly forecasts made by two...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 138. a. Use a...Ch. 4 - Solved example 4.1 Sales of Volkswagens popular...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1. Using smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual (At) and forecast...Ch. 4 - Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and...Ch. 4 - Question 4.20 Resolve Problem 4.19 with =.1 and ...Ch. 4 - Question 4.21 Refer to the trend-adjusted...Ch. 4 - Question 4.22 Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the...Ch. 4 - Question 4.23 Sales of quilt covers at Bud Baniss...Ch. 4 - Question 4.25 The following gives the number of...Ch. 4 - Prob. 25PCh. 4 - Question 4.27 George Kyparisis owns a company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.28 Attendance at Orlandos newest...Ch. 4 - Question 4.29 North Dakota Electric Company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.33 The number of internal disk drives...Ch. 4 - Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist,...Ch. 4 - Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North...Ch. 4 - Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.43, forecast...Ch. 4 - Question 4.47 Storrs Cycles has just started...Ch. 4 - Question 4.49 Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud...Ch. 4 - Question 4.24 Mark Gershon, owner of a musical...Ch. 4 - Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting...Ch. 4 - Prob. 45PCh. 4 - Question 4.32 The following data relate the sales...Ch. 4 - Question 4.34 The number of auto accidents in...Ch. 4 - Question 4.35 Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock,...Ch. 4 - Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman,...Ch. 4 - Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickmans...Ch. 4 - Question 4.38 City government has collected the...Ch. 4 - Using the data in Problem 4.39, apply linear...Ch. 4 - Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in...Ch. 4 - Thirteen students entered the business program at...Ch. 4 - Question 4.48 Dave Fletcher, the general manager...Ch. 4 - The following are monthly actual and forecast...Ch. 4 - Prob. 1CSCh. 4 - Prob. 2CSCh. 4 - Prob. 3CSCh. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...
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- Question 2 Historical demand for gulab jamun from a sweet stall on Commercial Road is as displayed in the table. Month Demand (orders) January 66,753 February 67,686 March 68,641 April 68,979 May 69,278 June 69,577 July 69,602 August 70,348 September 70,806 October 71,011 November 71,819 December 72,752 What is the forecast for June using Holt's model with an alpha of 0.1 and a beta of 0.2? 69121 69612 70564 63545 Full explain this question text typingarrow_forwardQuestion Four: ABC Company sells home appliances. Daily sales for a six-day period were as follows: Day Sales Saturday 20 Sunday 24 Monday 30 Tuesday 40 Wednesday 36 Thursday 44 Forecast Friday sales volume using each of the following methods: A three-day moving average. A four day weighted average using weights of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4 Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.2, assuming Wednesday forecast of 42. Determine a linear trend line equation for ABC Company. Use the trend equation to forecast Friday sales volume.arrow_forwardQuestion #2 Month Demand 1 45 2 48 3 43 4 48 5 49 6 54 7 47 8 50 9 46 10 47 Using the table above, calculate two forecasts using the following method:- First, for periods 4 through 10, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.4. ii. Calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 10, using weights of .70, .20, and .10, with 0.70 applied to the most recent data. iii. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?arrow_forward
- Question 2 i. Differentiate between independent and dependent variable in forecasting. ii. The last seven weeks of sales at KC car dealership can be seen in Table 2 below. Table 2 Week Sales 1 25 2 30 3 27 4 31 5 27 6 29 7 30 8 a. Use a three-period weighted-moving average forecast to determine a forecast for the 8th week using weights of 3, 2, and 1 (where the most recent week receives the highest weight). (Round all forecasts to the nearest whole unit.) b. Calculate the MAD for this forecast. c. What does the MAD indicate?arrow_forwardQuestion 21 A CFE of -140 suggests which of the following? Group of answer choices a. There is a bias towards over forecasting, though we cannot determine from the data provided whether that is severe bias or not b. There is a severe bias towards overforecasting c. There is a bias towards under forecasting, though we cannot determine from the data provided whether that is severe bias or not d. There is a severe bias towards under forecasting e. Bias is negligible in this casearrow_forwardQuestion (4): Answer the following problem: Cover Me, Inc. sells umbrellas in two cities. Management assumes that annual rainfall is the primary determinant of umbrella sales, and it wants to generate a linear regression equation to estimate potential sales in another city. Use the table below to develop a linear regression equation to find out what sales might be if the rainfall is 12 inches in City C. Show your work in the below table Rainfall X Sales Y X2 XY City A 36 inches 200 City B 30 inches 250 City C 12 inches Total 66 450arrow_forward
- Question 1. Question : (TCOs 6 and 8) What is the approximate forecast for July using a 40-month moving average if the historical demand is as follows: January is 35, February is 36, March is 40, April is 43, May is 48, and June is 49? 38 45 42 43 39 Question 4. Question : (TCO 8) Given an alpha factor of 0.4, a current demand for April of 5,500 units, and a March forecast of 4,900 units, calculate the May forecast. 4,000 6,050 5,080 4,520 5,140 Question 6. Question : (TCOs 5 and12) With a demand during lead time of 130, a safety stock of 20, and a container size of 30, how many kanbans (containers) would be needed? 6 5 8 10 16 Question 8. Question : (TCOs 6 and 8) In the process of using seasonal indices for forecasting, the first step that is taken is compute the average demand over all months. estimate next yearâs total annual demand. divide the estimate of total annual demand by the number of seasons. find the average historical demand each…arrow_forwardQUESTION 1The table below shows the sales figures for a brand of shoe over the last 12 months.Months SalesJanuary 69February 75March 86April 92May 95June 100July 108August 115September 125October 131November 140December 150 a. Using the following, forecast the sales for the months up to January the following year:-i. A simple three month moving averagearrow_forwardQuestion 4 (a) With reference to your department or one in a company or organization that you are familiar with that is involved in generating forecasts of air cargo traffic, propose the purposes for which the forecasts can be employed. In the process of generating air cargo traffic forecasts, appraise the forces that will promote air freight growth and the constraints the air cargo market are likely to face.arrow_forward
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