OPERATIONS MGMT - FIRST DAY
2018th Edition
ISBN: 9780135391242
Author: HEIZER
Publisher: PEARSON
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Textbook Question
Chapter 4, Problem 13P
As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years:
The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 41 surgeries.
Condor 36/Shutterstock
- a. Use exponential smoothing, first with a smoothing constant of .6 and then with one of .9, to develop forecasts for years 2 through 6.
- b. Use a 3-year moving average to forecast demand in years 4, 5, and 6.
- c. Use the trend-projection method to forecast demand in years 1 through 6.
- d. With MAD as the criterion, which of the four
forecasting methods is best?
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Students have asked these similar questions
14
Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below:
Day Bicycle Victims
1 8
2 14
3 8
4 14
5 18
6 15
With an alpha value of 0.31 and a starting forecast in day 3 equal to the 21 , what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 4? (Round to two decimal places)
15
What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 5? (Round to two decimal places)
Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). Using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant
(α)
of
0.30
and a starting forecast of
415.00,
the following sales forecast has been developed:
Year
Sales
Forecasted Sales
2005
455
415.00
2006
502
427.00
2007
518
449.50
2008
563
470.05
2009
584
497.94
Part 2
The MAD for a forecast developed using exponential smoothing with
α
=
0.30
is
enter your response here
sales (round your response to two decimal places).
Part 3
Forecasted sales for years 2006 through 2010 using exponential smoothing with
α
=
0.60
and a starting forecast of
415.00
are (round your responses to two decimal
places):
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Forecasted Sales
415.00
enter your response here
enter…
MONTH
DEMAND
1
45
2
3
4
5
48
43
48
49
6
54
7
8
9
10
47
50
46
47
Using the table above, calculate two forecasts using the following method:-i. First, for periods 4 through 10, develop the exponentially smoothed forecastsusing a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.4.
ii. Calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 10, using weights of.70, .20, and .10, with 0.70 applied to the most recent data
iii. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for each forecasting procedure.Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?
Chapter 4 Solutions
OPERATIONS MGMT - FIRST DAY
Ch. 4 - What is a qualitative foretasting model, and when...Ch. 4 - Identify and briefly describe the two general...Ch. 4 - Identify the three forecasting time horizons....Ch. 4 - Briefly describe the steps that are used to...Ch. 4 - A skeptical manager asks what medium-range...Ch. 4 - Explain why such forecasting devices as moving...Ch. 4 - What is the basic difference between a weighted...Ch. 4 - What three methods are used to determine the...Ch. 4 - Research and briefly describe the Delphi...Ch. 4 - What is the primary difference between a...
Ch. 4 - Define time series.Ch. 4 - What effect does the value of the smoothing...Ch. 4 - Explain the value of seasonal indices in...Ch. 4 - Which forecasting technique can place the most...Ch. 4 - In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.Ch. 4 - What is the purpose of a tracking signal?Ch. 4 - Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the...Ch. 4 - What is the difference between a dependent and an...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries that are affected by...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries in which demand...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21DQCh. 4 - Prob. 22DQCh. 4 - The following gives the number of pints of type B...Ch. 4 - 4.2 a. Plot the above data on a graph. Do you...Ch. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years...Ch. 4 - A check-processing center uses exponential...Ch. 4 - The Carbondale Hospital is considering the...Ch. 4 - The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were...Ch. 4 - The actual demand for the patients at Omaha...Ch. 4 - Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last...Ch. 4 - Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop...Ch. 4 - Data collected on the yearly registrations for a...Ch. 4 - Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual and forecast demand...Ch. 4 - As you can see in the following table, demand for...Ch. 4 - Following are two weekly forecasts made by two...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 138. a. Use a...Ch. 4 - Solved example 4.1 Sales of Volkswagens popular...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1. Using smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual (At) and forecast...Ch. 4 - Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and...Ch. 4 - Question 4.20 Resolve Problem 4.19 with =.1 and ...Ch. 4 - Question 4.21 Refer to the trend-adjusted...Ch. 4 - Question 4.22 Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the...Ch. 4 - Question 4.23 Sales of quilt covers at Bud Baniss...Ch. 4 - Question 4.25 The following gives the number of...Ch. 4 - Prob. 25PCh. 4 - Question 4.27 George Kyparisis owns a company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.28 Attendance at Orlandos newest...Ch. 4 - Question 4.29 North Dakota Electric Company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.33 The number of internal disk drives...Ch. 4 - Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist,...Ch. 4 - Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North...Ch. 4 - Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.43, forecast...Ch. 4 - Question 4.47 Storrs Cycles has just started...Ch. 4 - Question 4.49 Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud...Ch. 4 - Question 4.24 Mark Gershon, owner of a musical...Ch. 4 - Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting...Ch. 4 - Prob. 45PCh. 4 - Question 4.32 The following data relate the sales...Ch. 4 - Question 4.34 The number of auto accidents in...Ch. 4 - Question 4.35 Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock,...Ch. 4 - Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman,...Ch. 4 - Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickmans...Ch. 4 - Question 4.38 City government has collected the...Ch. 4 - Using the data in Problem 4.39, apply linear...Ch. 4 - Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in...Ch. 4 - Thirteen students entered the business program at...Ch. 4 - Question 4.48 Dave Fletcher, the general manager...Ch. 4 - The following are monthly actual and forecast...Ch. 4 - Prob. 1CSCh. 4 - Prob. 2CSCh. 4 - Prob. 3CSCh. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...
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