Operations Management
13th Edition
ISBN: 9781259667473
Author: William J Stevenson
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Concept explainers
Question
Chapter 5.S, Problem 5P
Summary Introduction
To determine: The course of action that has highest payoff for this decision tree
Introduction: Decision tree is one of the methods of decision-making process. It would graphically represent the available alternatives and states of nature. It would also mention the payoffs and probabilities of the alternatives. It helps to choose the best alternative that would give best result among the alternatives.
Expert Solution & Answer
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solutionStudents have asked these similar questions
Determine the course of action that has the highest expected payoff for this decision tree
Solve the following decision tree and create risk profiles and cumulative risk profiles for the alternatives defined by the original decision “A” and “B” using precisionTree. Which alternative is preferred? Explain.
Adam has been offered to open up a Service station. However, the size of the establishment will be based on his decision. The annual return and investment required will be based on both size and market condition. To help out in the decision making, Adam has done the analysis and the expected profit/loss are shown in the table:
Develop a decision table for this?
What is the maximax decision?
What is the equally likely decision?
Develop a decision tree. Assume each outcome is equally likely, then find the highest expected monetory value (EMV).
Chapter 5 Solutions
Operations Management
Ch. 5.8 - Explain the meaning of the phrase Hours versus...Ch. 5.8 - Prob. 1.2RQCh. 5.8 - Prob. 1.3RQCh. 5.8 - Prob. 1.4RQCh. 5.8 - Prob. 1.5RQCh. 5.S - Prob. 1DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 2DRQCh. 5.S - Explain the term bounded rationality.Ch. 5.S - Prob. 4DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 5DRQ
Ch. 5.S - What information is contained in a payoff table?Ch. 5.S - Prob. 7DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 8DRQCh. 5.S - Under what circumstances is expected monetary...Ch. 5.S - Explain or define each of these terms: a. Laplace...Ch. 5.S - Prob. 11DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 12DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 13DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 1PCh. 5.S - Refer to problem1. Suppose after a certain amount...Ch. 5.S - Refer to Problems 1 and 2 Construct a graph that...Ch. 5.S - Prob. 4PCh. 5.S - Prob. 5PCh. 5.S - The lease of Theme Park, Inc., is about to expire....Ch. 5.S - Prob. 7PCh. 5.S - Prob. 8PCh. 5.S - Prob. 9PCh. 5.S - A manager must decide how many machines of a...Ch. 5.S - Prob. 11PCh. 5.S - Prob. 12PCh. 5.S - Prob. 13PCh. 5.S - Prob. 14PCh. 5.S - Give this payoff table: a. Determine the range of...Ch. 5.S - Prob. 16PCh. 5.S - Repeat all parts of problem 16, assuming the value...Ch. 5.S - Prob. 18PCh. 5 - Prob. 1DRQCh. 5 - Prob. 2DRQCh. 5 - How do long-term and short-term capacity...Ch. 5 - Give an example of a good and a service that...Ch. 5 - Give some example of building flexibility into...Ch. 5 - Why is it important to adopt a big-picture...Ch. 5 - What is meant by capacity in chunks, and why is...Ch. 5 - Prob. 8DRQCh. 5 - How can a systems approach to capacity planning be...Ch. 5 - Prob. 10DRQCh. 5 - Why is it important to match process capabilities...Ch. 5 - Briefly discuss how uncertainty affects capacity...Ch. 5 - Prob. 13DRQCh. 5 - Prob. 14DRQCh. 5 - Prob. 15DRQCh. 5 - Prob. 16DRQCh. 5 - What is the benefit to a business organization of...Ch. 5 - Prob. 1TSCh. 5 - Prob. 2TSCh. 5 - Prob. 3TSCh. 5 - Prob. 1CTECh. 5 - Prob. 2CTECh. 5 - Identify four potential unethical actions or...Ch. 5 - Any increase in efficiency also increases...Ch. 5 - Prob. 1PCh. 5 - In a job shop, effective capacity is only 50...Ch. 5 - A producer of pottery is considering the addition...Ch. 5 - A small firm intends to increase the capacity of a...Ch. 5 - A producer of felt-tip pens has received a...Ch. 5 - A real estate agent is considering changing her...Ch. 5 - A firm plans to begin production of a new small...Ch. 5 - A manager is trying to decide whether to purchase...Ch. 5 - A company manufactures a product using two machine...Ch. 5 - A company must decide which type of machine to...Ch. 5 - Prob. 11PCh. 5 - A manager must decide how many machines of a...Ch. 5 - Prob. 13PCh. 5 - The following diagram shows a four-step process...Ch. 5 - Prob. 15PCh. 5 - Prob. 16PCh. 5 - Prob. 17PCh. 5 - Prob. 18PCh. 5 - A new machine will cost 18,000, butt result it...Ch. 5 - Remodelling an office will cost 25,000 and will...Ch. 5 - Prob. 1CQCh. 5 - Prob. 2CQCh. 5 - Prob. 3CQ
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- Without any numbers, kindly explain what possible problem is being decided by the decision tree below?arrow_forwardGiven is a decision payoff table and a Sub Decision Payoff Table. Use Minimax Regret as an evaluation criterion to evaluate alternatives. Future Demand Alternatives Low Moderate High Small Facility 14 12 13 Medium Facility -1 17 23 Large Facility -5 11 29 Alternatives Worst Regrets Small Facility ? Medium Facility ? Large Facility ? a) The worst regrets for alternative Small Facility is b) The worst regrets for alternative Medium Facility is c) The worst regrets for alternative Large Facility is d) The best course of action or decision by using Minimax Regret is to select ( ) facilityarrow_forwardThe proposed Ghana Airways Airline project is being procured through a Public-Private Partnership (PPP). In the PPP procurement process, two companies (the SPVs-special purpose vehicles), ‘A’ and ‘B’ with each having 0.5% chances of selection. The risks analysis document reveals that SPV ‘A’ has 0.4 risk of performance failure, whiles SPV ‘B’ has 0.3 risk of performance failure. Using Decision Tree Analysis, as a project manager, critically assess the options and advise on the best SPV to be chosen.arrow_forward
- What are the possible causes of poor decision making? Please explain each of them.arrow_forwardIn solving the given problem ,you may refer to the following payoff table: New bridge built No new bridge Alternative location A 1 14 for new warehouse B 2 10 C 4 6 1. Assume the payoffs represent profits. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under each of these decision criteria: A. Maximin B. Maximax C. Laplace 2. Using the information in the payoff table, develop a table of regrets, and then: A. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under minimax regret. B. Determine the expected value of perfect information using the regret table, assuming that the probability of a new bridge being built is 0.60. 3. Using the probabilities of 0.60 for a new bridge and 0.40 for no new bridge, compute the expected value for each alternative in the payoff table , and identify the alternative that would be selected under the expected-value approach. 4.…arrow_forwardA builder has located a piece of property that she would like to buy and eventually build on. The land is currently zoned for four homes per acre, but she is planning to request new zoning. What she builds depends on the approval of zoning requests and your analysis of this problem to advise her. With her input and your help, the decision process has been reduced to the following costs, alternatives, and probabilities:Cost of land: $2 millionProbability of rezoning: .60If the land is rezoned, there will be additional costs for new roads, lighting, and so on, of $1 million. If the land is rezoned, the contractor must decide whether to build a shopping center or 1,500 apartments that the tentative plan shows would be possible. If she builds a shopping center, there is a 70 percent chance that she can sell the shopping center to a large department store chain for $4 million over her construction cost, which excludes the land; and there is a 30 percent chance that she can sell it to an…arrow_forward
- A manager must decide on the size of a video arcade to construct. The manager has narrowed the choices to two: large or small. Information has been collected on payoffs, and a decision tree has been constructed. Analyze the decision tree and determine which initial alternative (build small or build large) should be chosen in order to maximize expected monetary value.arrow_forwardAdam has been offered to open up a Service station. However, the size of the establishment will be based on his decision. The annual return and investment required will be based on both size and market condition. To help out in the decision making, Adam has done the analysis and the expected profit/loss are shown in the table: What is the maximax,maximin and equally likely decision? Develop a decision treearrow_forwardDo the engineers face the decision problem involving the selection of the best course of action when there are several ways to meet a project's requirements?arrow_forward
- Determine whether alternative a, b, c, or d has the highest expected monetary value (EMV) for the decision free diagram below.arrow_forwardA financial consulting company is opening a new office in a foreign country. It is leasing the space and renting furniture until it is established in the location. When considering its foreign physical asset risk, which of the following decisions is in the best interest of the company? A.Risk avoidance, choosing not to move forward because of the high risk. B.Risk reduction, implementing new strategies to address its risk. C.Risk transfer, purchasing insurance to offset the risk. D.Risk retention, choosing to move forward and accept the low risk.arrow_forwardSee the answer A local movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production. The manager feels that script #1 has a 70% chance of earning Php100 million over the long run, but a 30% chance of losing Php20 million. If this movie is successful, then a sequel could also be produced, with an 80% chance of earning Php50 million, but a 20% chance of losing Php10 million. On the other hand, she feels that script #2 has a 60 % chance of earning Php120 million, but a 40% chance of losing Php30 million. If successful, its sequel would have a 50% chance of earning $80 million and a 50% chance of losing Php40 million. As with the first script, if the original movie is a "flop," then no sequel would be produced. What is the expected payoff from selecting script #2?arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,