Comparison of manager’s forecast with a single exponential smoothening forecast when a= 0.4 is to be determined. Concept Introduction: Moving average is the forecasting method in which various averages are taken for subsets of a given data. Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

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Answer 1

Question

Chapter 9, Problem 14PA

a

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Comparison of manager’s forecast with a single exponential smoothening forecast when a= 0.4 is to be determined.

Concept Introduction:

Moving average is the forecasting method in which various averages are taken for subsets of a given data.

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

b

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Whether manager’s forecasts are satisfactory or not.

Concept Introduction:

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

c

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Criteria for selection of forecasting method for the company.

Concept Introduction:

Regression analysis is a statistical method to know the dependency of variables. It helps in forecasting the values of independent variable which are dependent on other variables.

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At the ABC Floral Shop, an argument developed between two of the owners, Bob and Henry, over the accuracy of forecasting methods. Bob argued that exponential smoothing with α = .1 would be the best method. Henry argued that the shop would get a better forecast with α = .3.a. Using F1 = 100 and the data from problem 3, which of the two managers is right?b. Graph the two forecasts and the original data using Excel. What does the graph reveal?c. Maybe forecast accuracy could be improved. Try additional values of α = .2, .4, and .5 to see if better accuracy is achieved.

Consider the following time series data: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 2) Refer to the time series data in Exercise 1. Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next period. Compute the following measures of forecast accuracy i)Mean absolute error ii)Mean squared error iii)Mean absolute percentage error iv)What is the forecast for week 7?

Complete the forecasting worksheets for:NaïveAverageMoving AverageWeighted Moving Average using the weights of .8, .15, and .05 with .8 being the most current, then .15, then .05ExponA use an alpha level of .75ExponB use an alpha level of .25Exponential SolverWhat is the best alpha level as determined by the Exponential Solver?Which is the best forecasting option for MAE? What is the MAE?Which is the best forecasting option for MAPE? What is the MAPE? Period Sales This is the data for the forecasting template1 1152 1183 1284 1225 1356 1287 1358 1329 13210 135

Answer 2

Question

Chapter 9, Problem 14PA

a

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Comparison of manager’s forecast with a single exponential smoothening forecast when a= 0.4 is to be determined.

Concept Introduction:

Moving average is the forecasting method in which various averages are taken for subsets of a given data.

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

b

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Whether manager’s forecasts are satisfactory or not.

Concept Introduction:

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

c

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Criteria for selection of forecasting method for the company.

Concept Introduction:

Regression analysis is a statistical method to know the dependency of variables. It helps in forecasting the values of independent variable which are dependent on other variables.

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Answer 3

Question

Chapter 9, Problem 14PA

a

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Comparison of manager’s forecast with a single exponential smoothening forecast when a= 0.4 is to be determined.

Concept Introduction:

Moving average is the forecasting method in which various averages are taken for subsets of a given data.

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

b

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Whether manager’s forecasts are satisfactory or not.

Concept Introduction:

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

c

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Criteria for selection of forecasting method for the company.

Concept Introduction:

Regression analysis is a statistical method to know the dependency of variables. It helps in forecasting the values of independent variable which are dependent on other variables.

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Answer 4

Question

Chapter 9, Problem 14PA

a

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Comparison of manager’s forecast with a single exponential smoothening forecast when a= 0.4 is to be determined.

Concept Introduction:

Moving average is the forecasting method in which various averages are taken for subsets of a given data.

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

b

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Whether manager’s forecasts are satisfactory or not.

Concept Introduction:

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

c

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Criteria for selection of forecasting method for the company.

Concept Introduction:

Regression analysis is a statistical method to know the dependency of variables. It helps in forecasting the values of independent variable which are dependent on other variables.

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Answer 5

Chapter 9, Problem 14PA

a

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Comparison of manager’s forecast with a single exponential smoothening forecast when a= 0.4 is to be determined.

Concept Introduction:

Moving average is the forecasting method in which various averages are taken for subsets of a given data.

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

b

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Whether manager’s forecasts are satisfactory or not.

Concept Introduction:

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

c

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Criteria for selection of forecasting method for the company.

Concept Introduction:

Regression analysis is a statistical method to know the dependency of variables. It helps in forecasting the values of independent variable which are dependent on other variables.

Answer 6

Chapter 9, Problem 14PA

a

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Comparison of manager’s forecast with a single exponential smoothening forecast when a= 0.4 is to be determined.

Concept Introduction:

Moving average is the forecasting method in which various averages are taken for subsets of a given data.

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

Answer 7

Chapter 9, Problem 14PA

a

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Comparison of manager’s forecast with a single exponential smoothening forecast when a= 0.4 is to be determined.

Concept Introduction:

Moving average is the forecasting method in which various averages are taken for subsets of a given data.

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

Answer 8

b

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Whether manager’s forecasts are satisfactory or not.

Concept Introduction:

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

Answer 9

b

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Whether manager’s forecasts are satisfactory or not.

Concept Introduction:

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

Answer 10

c

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Criteria for selection of forecasting method for the company.

Concept Introduction:

Regression analysis is a statistical method to know the dependency of variables. It helps in forecasting the values of independent variable which are dependent on other variables.

Answer 11

c

Summary Introduction

Interpretation:Criteria for selection of forecasting method for the company.

Concept Introduction:

Regression analysis is a statistical method to know the dependency of variables. It helps in forecasting the values of independent variable which are dependent on other variables.

Answer 12

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Answer 13

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Answer 14

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Answer 15

Ch. 9 - Prob. 1DQ Ch. 9 - Prob. 2DQ Ch. 9 - Prob. 3DQ Ch. 9 - Prob. 4DQ Ch. 9 - Prob. 5DQ Ch. 9 - Prob. 2PA Ch. 9 - Prob. 3PA Ch. 9 - Prob. 4PA Ch. 9 - Prob. 5PA Ch. 9 - Prob. 6PA

Solution Summary: The author compares the manager's forecast with an exponential smoothening forecast when a= 0.4 is to be determined.

Concept explainers

Videos

Interpretation:Whether manager’s forecasts are satisfactory or not.

Concept Introduction:

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

Interpretation:Criteria for selection of forecasting method for the company.

Concept Introduction:

Regression analysis is a statistical method to know the dependency of variables. It helps in forecasting the values of independent variable which are dependent on other variables.

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Chapter 9 Solutions

Solution Summary: The author compares the manager's forecast with an exponential smoothening forecast when a= 0.4 is to be determined.

Concept explainers

Videos

Interpretation:Whether manager’s forecasts are satisfactory or not. Concept Introduction: Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

Interpretation:Criteria for selection of forecasting method for the company. Concept Introduction: Regression analysis is a statistical method to know the dependency of variables. It helps in forecasting the values of independent variable which are dependent on other variables.

Want to see the full answer?

Chapter 9 Solutions

Interpretation:Whether manager’s forecasts are satisfactory or not.

Concept Introduction:

Exponential smoothening is a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand.

Interpretation:Criteria for selection of forecasting method for the company.

Concept Introduction:

Regression analysis is a statistical method to know the dependency of variables. It helps in forecasting the values of independent variable which are dependent on other variables.