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Chapter A, Problem 11DQ

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11. The expected value criterion is considered to be the rational criterion on which to base a decision. Is this true? Is it rational to consider risk?

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Question 5 AIT computer department purchases a new computer every two years with preferences for three models; T1, T2 and T3. If the present model is T1, the next computer may be T2 with probability 0.2 or T3 with probability 0.15. If the present model is T2, the probabilities of switching to T1 and T3 are 0.6 and 0.25 respectively. And if present model is T3 then, the probabilities of switching to T1 and T2 are 0.5 and 0.1 respectively.        Represent the situation as a Markov chain.
Question: Develop a problem statement for the scenario given below by considering the variables involved? Suppose you are a manager of a beverage company. You have recently witnessed a sudden decrease in sales. It has been widely accepted that due to Covid-19, the purchasing power of consumers has been declined. On the other hand in such situations, sales personnel avoid roaming for selling to avoid contact. The sudden decrease in the number of hours work and alternate shifts due to Covid-19 SOPs also resulted in a low-profit margin. You have to figure out the actual reason for the decline in sales as a manager.
QUESTION A The Miramar Company is going to introduce one of three new products: a widget, a hummer, or a nimnot. The market conditions (favorable, stable, or unfavorable) will determine the profit or loss the company realizes, as shown in the following payoff table: State of Nature     Favourable              Stable              Unfavourable Product                                   0.2                       0.7                        0.1     Widget                                          $ 120,000              $ 70,000             $ –30,000 Hummer                                 60,000                 40,000                  20,000 Nimnot                                   35,000                 30,000                  30,000     Determine the best decision, using the following decision criteria Maximax Maximin LaPlace
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