Consider the monthly time series shown in the table.   Month t Y January 1 185 February 2 192 March 3 189 April 4 201 May 5 195 June 6 199 July 7 206 August 8 203 September 9 208 October 10 209 November 11 218 December 12 216   Use the method of least squares to fit the model E(Yt) = β0+ β1t to the data. Write the prediction equation. Use the prediction equation to obtain forecasts for the next two months. Find 95% forecast intervals for the next two months.

Linear Algebra: A Modern Introduction
4th Edition
ISBN:9781285463247
Author:David Poole
Publisher:David Poole
Chapter7: Distance And Approximation
Section7.3: Least Squares Approximation
Problem 33EQ
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Consider the monthly time series shown in the table.

 

Month

t

Y

January

1

185

February

2

192

March

3

189

April

4

201

May

5

195

June

6

199

July

7

206

August

8

203

September

9

208

October

10

209

November

11

218

December

12

216

 

  1. Use the method of least squares to fit the model E(Yt) = β0+ β1t to the data. Write the prediction equation.
  2. Use the prediction equation to obtain forecasts for the next two months.
  3. Find 95% forecast intervals for the next two months.

 

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