Answer to 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21 20. The value of the slope 'b' in the trend equation is:(a) - 1.70(b) - 1.71(c) - 1.72(d) - 1.7321. What is the forecast for the 12th quarter on the trend equation?(a) 76(b) 77(c) 78(d) 79 The operations manager of a company extructed the following annual demand data from theresearch and development department of the company. Use it to answer questions 15-21.QuartersDemand120901007511046.78.507578956.101112899215. What is the 3-month moving average forecast for the 12th quarter?(a) 90(b) 91(c) 92(d) 9316. The 3-month weighted moving average forecast for the 13th quarter is, assuming 0.48, 0.32 and0.20 weighs were assigned.(a) 91(b) 92(c) 93(d) 9417. What is the percentage change in demand between 1" and 3rd quarters?(a) (45.45)%(b) 45.45%(c) (50.00)%(d) 50.00%18. What is the exponential smoothing forecast for the 12th quarter assurning the forecast for the11 quarter was 91 and a = 0.3(a) 89(b) 90(c) 91(d) 9219. The value for the intercept 'a' in the trend equation is:(a) 98.80(b) 100.21(c) 110.58(d) 120.34

Find the Given details below: Given Details: Quarters Demand 1 120 2 90 3 100 4 75 5…

The operations manager of a company extructed the following annual demand data from the research and development department of the company. Use it to answer questions 15-21. Demand 120 90 100 Quarters 3 4. 75 110 50 75 78 6. 6. 95 10 89 92 11 12 15. What is the 3-month moving average forecast for the 12h quarter? (a) 90 (b) 91 (c) 92 (d) 93 16. The 3-month weighted moving average forecast for the 13th quarter is, assuming 0.48, 0.32 an 0.20 weighs were assigned. (a) 91 (b) 92 (e) 93 (d) 94 17. What is the percentage change in demand between 1" and 3d quarters? (a) (45.45)% (b) 45.45% (c) (50.00)% (d) 50.00% 18. What is the exponential smoothing forecast for the 12th quarter assuining the forecast for the 11 quarter was 91 and a =0.3 (a) 89 (b) 90 (c) 91 (d) 92 19. The value for the intercept 'a' in the trend equation is: (a) 98.80 (b) 100.21 (c) 110.58 (d) 120.34

The operations manager of a company extructed the following annual demand data from the research and development department of the company. Use it to answer questions 15-21. Demand 120 90 100 Quarters 3 4. 75 110 50 75 78 6. 6. 95 10 89 92 11 12 15. What is the 3-month moving average forecast for the 12h quarter? (a) 90 (b) 91 (c) 92 (d) 93 16. The 3-month weighted moving average forecast for the 13th quarter is, assuming 0.48, 0.32 an 0.20 weighs were assigned. (a) 91 (b) 92 (e) 93 (d) 94 17. What is the percentage change in demand between 1" and 3d quarters? (a) (45.45)% (b) 45.45% (c) (50.00)% (d) 50.00% 18. What is the exponential smoothing forecast for the 12th quarter assuining the forecast for the 11 quarter was 91 and a =0.3 (a) 89 (b) 90 (c) 91 (d) 92 19. The value for the intercept 'a' in the trend equation is: (a) 98.80 (b) 100.21 (c) 110.58 (d) 120.34

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section13.6: Moving Averages Models

Problem 22P: The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six...

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Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 7 9 6 10 12 7 12 12 9 9 8 Part 2 Using exponential smoothing with α = 0.30 and a forecast for year 1 of 6.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Part 3 Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers).
Clinic administrator Marc Schniederjans wants you to forecastpatient demand at the clinic for week 7 by using this data. You decide to use a weighted moving average method to find this fore-cast. Your method uses four actual demand levels, with weights of 0.333 on the present period, 0.25 one period ago, 0.25 two peri-ods ago, and 0.167 three periods ago. a) What is the value of your forecast? PXb) If instead the weights were 20, 15, 15, and 10, respectively, howwould the forecast change? Explain why. c) What if the weights were 0.40, 0.30, 0.20, and 0.10, respec-tively? Now what is the forecast for week 7?
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Herman Hahn is attempting to set up an integrated forecasting and inventory controlsystem for his hardware store, Hahn’s Hardware. When Herman indicates that outdoorlights are a seasonal item on the computer, he is prompted by the program to input theseasonal factors by quarter.Unfortunately, Herman has not kept any historical data, but he estimates that firstquarter demand for the lights is about 30 percent below average, the second-quarterdemand about 20 percent below average, third-quarter demand about average, andfourth-quarter demand about 50 percent above average. What should he input for theseasonal factors?