Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781478623069
Author: Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher: Waveland Press, Inc.
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Chapter 2.4, Problem 3P

a.

Summary Introduction

To determine: The appropriate forecasting method to be used in case whenH Inc. tries to predict the demand for motel rooms in the coming year.

Introduction: Forecasting includes quantitative methods apart from the qualitative methods. One basic type of quantitative category is Time series models. The time series models depict the connection between dependent and independent variables based on past observed data.

b.

Summary Introduction

To determine: The appropriate forecasting method to be usedto predict the use of new outdoor paint keeping the sale of new houses as the basis for forecasting.

Introduction: The casual models are one basic type of quantitative methods of forecasting that attempt to build the finest statistical relation of dependent and explanatory variables. When forecasting attempt is made using a single explanatory variable in causal forecasting models, it is regarded as simple regressionmodel.

c.

Summary Introduction

To determine: The appropriate forecasting method to be used in case whenCompany I tries to find the cost of a stock-out of a critical tape driver component.

Introduction: Delphi method is a subjective forecasting method based on soliciting the experts’ opinions. Here, a few rounds of questionnaires are answered by the specialists, and after each round, the anonymous answers are aggregated and shared with the group.

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What is the appropriate type of forecasting method to use in each of the followingscenarios:a. Holiday Inn, Inc., is attempting to predict the demand next year for motel rooms,based on a history of demand observations.b. Standard Brands has developed a new type of outdoor paint.The company wishesto forecast sales based on new housing starts.c. IBM is trying to ascertain the cost of a stock-out of a critical tape drive component. They do so by sample survey of managers at various national spare partscenters. The surveys are sent back to the managers for a reassessment, and theprocess is repeated until a consensus is reached.
An electronic appliance manufacturer wants to know if there is a relationship between percentage change in deposable personal income which is reported quarterly by the government, and the percentage change in appliances sold by the manufacturer following same years of quarterly data. Brenda Chee and Clarence Paulus lead an analyst team has obtained data for the past 10 quarters. (Hint: Provides your answers in two decimal points) (a) What forecasting model should be used for this data. Why? (b) Develop the forecasting model that you have proposed in (a). (c) Compute the relationship for these data. In your opinion, is the relationship between independent variable strong enough to base a predictive the dependent variable? Explain your answer.
What is the appropriate type of forecasting method to use in each of the following scenarios:a. Holiday Inn, Inc., is attempting to predict the demand next year for motel rooms, based on a history of demand observations.b. Standard Brands has developed a newtype of outdoor paint.The company wishes to forecast sales based on new housing starts.c. IBM is trying to ascertain the cost of a stock-out of a critical tape drive component. They do so by sample survey of managers at various national spare parts centers. The surveys are sent back to the managers for a reassessment, and the process is repeated until a consensus is reached.
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