Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781478623069
Author: Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher: Waveland Press, Inc.
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Chapter 2.6, Problem 12P
a.
Summary Introduction
To determine: The one step ahead forecasts for periods 3 through 12.
Introduction:
b.
Summary Introduction
To determine:The forecast errors for the periods 3 through 12.
Introduction: Forecasting is the main function of predicting the future using the information available for decision making. It is a mechanism for planning decisions based on the predicted information.
c.
Summary Introduction
To determine: The MAD, MSE and MAPE for the forecast errors calculated for periods 3 through 12.
Introduction: Forecasting is the main function of predicting the future using the information available for decision making. It is a mechanism for planning decisions based on the predicted information.
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The following are the sales figures for 2018 through 2020 for a product. Data for ayear is available in two halves of the year, months January through June, and thenJuly through December (Half-year 2).
Suppose we are interested in setting up a forecasting model using the exponentialsmoothing method for stationary processes with seasonality.a) Initialize the system based on the data provided for 2018 and 2019.b) Suppose the smoothing factors are ?= 0.1 and ?= 0.1. Forecast and update forthe first half of 2020 and then the second half of 2020 by incorporating the sales forthe first half of 2020 . Calculate the MAD based on 2020actuals and forecasts.c) Forecast sales for the two halves of 2021.
) Consider the following time series data:
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 18 13 16 11 17 14
i)Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exist in the data?
ii)Develop a three – week moving average for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast cast for week 7.
Use alpha = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing value for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
IV)Compare the three -week moving average forecast with exponential smoothing forecast using alpha = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain
V)Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing. Coefficient Alpha that result in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for alpha = 0.2.
Forecasting
Use the data below to compute the following:
(Forecasting/Regression)
Period (t)
At or Yt
1
410
2
407
3
333
4
428
5
332
6
355
7
371
8
481
9
392
A.) Compute the 3-period simple moving average forecasts. Compute the MAD and MSE for the 4-period simple moving average.
B.) Compute the 4-period weighted moving average forecasts using the weights=0.25, 0.1, 0.44, and 0.3. Compute the MAD and MSE for the 3-period weighted moving average.
C.) Compute the exponential smoothing forecasts using alpha=0.35. Compute the MAD and MSE for the exponential smoothing forecasts.
D.) Calculate the regression line. Compute the MAD and MSE for the regression line.
E.) Use your results for A.)-D.) to determine which forecast is best. Explain your results.
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Chapter 2 Solutions
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
Ch. 2.4 - Prob. 1PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 2PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 3PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 4PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 5PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 6PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 7PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 8PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 9PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 2.6 - Prob. 11PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 12PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 13PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 14PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 15PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 16PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 17PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 18PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 19PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 20PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 21PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 22PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 23PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 24PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 25PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 26PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 27PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 28PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 29PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 30PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 31PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 32PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 33PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 34PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 35PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 36PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 37PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 38PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 42PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 43PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 44PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 45PCh. 2 - Prob. 47APCh. 2 - Prob. 48APCh. 2 - Prob. 49APCh. 2 - Prob. 50APCh. 2 - Prob. 51APCh. 2 - Prob. 52APCh. 2 - Prob. 53APCh. 2 - Prob. 54APCh. 2 - Prob. 55APCh. 2 - Prob. 56APCh. 2 - Prob. 57APCh. 2 - Prob. 58AP
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