Concept explainers
A
To determine: The value that appears to minimize the MAD, by experimenting different values of
Introduction:
B
To determine: The value that appears to minimize the MSE, by experimenting different values of
Introduction: Forecasting is the main function of predicting the future using the information available for decision making. It is a mechanism for planning decisions based on the predicted information.
C
To determine: The value that appears to minimize the MAPe, by experimenting different values of
Introduction: Forecasting is the main function of predicting the future using the information available for decision making. It is a mechanism for planning decisions based on the predicted information.
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Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?arrow_forwardThe file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.arrow_forwardThe Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?arrow_forward
- choices: a. true b. false c. others (specify) 1. Holt’s linear method is very applicable for longer forecast. 2. The best smoothing parameters, α and β^*, for Holt's linear model is the values from -1 and 1 that can minimize SSE. 3. In the PACF, there are three spikes decreasing with the lag, and then no significant spikes thereafter. This suggests a possible AR(3) model.arrow_forwardIn exponential smoothing, if ɑ = 0.3, then the damping factor for use in forecasting should be: * o .70 o .60 o .40 o .50 o .30arrow_forwardA check-processing center uses exponetial smoothing to forecast the number of incoming checks each month. the number of checks recewived in June was 40 million while the forecast was 42 million. A smoothibg constant of 0.15 is used. a) Using exponential smoothing and given a the forecast for the month of July={__} million checks received (round your response to one decimal placearrow_forward
- A check-processing center uses exponential smoothing to forecast the number of incoming checks each month. The number of checks received in June was 40 million, while the forecast was 42 million. A smoothing constant of .2 is used. a) What is the forecast for July? b) If the center received 45 million checks in July, what would be the forecast for August? c) Why might this be an inappropriate forecasting method for this situation?arrow_forwardIf the demand in the current week was 102 units and we had forecast it to be 125, what would be next week’s forecast using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha of 0.3?arrow_forwardIncome at the architectural firm Spraggins andYunes for the period February to July was as follows: Use trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to forecast thefirm’s August income. Assume that the initial forecast averagefor February is $65,000 and the initial trend adjustmentis 0. The smoothing constants selected are a = .1 andb = .2.arrow_forward
- Given the following data, use exponential smoothing(a = 0.2) to develop a demand forecast. Assume the forecast forthe initial period is 5.arrow_forwardIncome at the architectural firm Spraggins and Yunes for the period February to July was as follows: Use trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to forecast the firm's August income. Assume that the initial forecast average for February is $65,000 and the initial trend adjustment is 0. The smoothing constants selected are ex = .I and f3 = .2.arrow_forwardAnalyst at Ayamas Food Corporation Sdn. Bhd. company about forecasting monthly demand for inventory from warehouse. The analyst suggest that Ayamas consider using exponential smoothing with smoothing constants 0.2 and 0.3. Ayamas decides to compare the accuracy of the smoothing constants for the most recent second quarter of the year. Below is the data for the most recent quarter. Month Sales (Thousands of RM) December 90 January 100 February 98 March 120 April 110 May 1 15 June 100 a. Calculate the exponential smoothing forecast for periods January to June. Use a = 0.2 and = 0.3 (14 Marks) b. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecast. Based on MAD, which forecasting method is the best. (4 Marks) c) Forecast July use the smallest mean absolute deviation. (2 Marks)arrow_forward
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,Contemporary MarketingMarketingISBN:9780357033777Author:Louis E. Boone, David L. KurtzPublisher:Cengage LearningMarketingMarketingISBN:9780357033791Author:Pride, William MPublisher:South Western Educational Publishing