(ii) Ten months data are available that is: Month Jan. Orders 120 Compute demand forecasting for April to November by using 3-month moving average and 4 month weighted moving average method. Feb. March April May June July Aug. 130 Sept. Oct. 90 100 75 110 50 75 110 90
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- The Vintage Restaurant, on Captive Island near Fort Meyers, Florida, is owned and operated by Karen Payne. The restaurant just completed its second year of operation. Below are the sales for those two years (in ten thousands of dollars). Month First Year Second Year January 57 61 February 51 75 March 58 54 April 57 56 May 68 62 June 72 71 July 60 59 August 51 75 September 68 68 October 51 50 November 71 64 December 75 58 b) Develop a six month moving average. Compute MSE and forecast the amount of sales for the next month. c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values. Compute MSE and forecast for the next month. d) Compare the result for the six month average and exponential smoothing. Which appears to provide a better forecast based on MSE? Explain.The customer demand for a particular smart phone during Year 0 to Year 5 is given as 1,056,000, 1,032,000, 1,093,000, 1,024,000, 1,066,000, and 1,072,000. Using the Holt forecasting model with trend, what is the forecasted demand in year 10, where w = 0.4 and v = 0.5?a) 1,071,874b) 1,075,573c) 1,077,488d) 1,083,816The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System publishes data on mortgage debt outstanding by type of property and holder. The following data give the amounts of residential nonfarm debt (in $ billions) held by savings institutions in the United States over a 10-year period. Use these data to develop an autoregression model with a one-period lag. Discuss the strength of the model. Year Debt 1 529 2 554 3 559 4 602 5 672 6 669 7 600 8 538 9 490 10 470
- Toward the middle of the harvesting season, peaches for canning come in three types, early, late, and extra late, depending on the expected date of ripening. During a certain week, the data to the right were recorded at a fruit delivery station. Complete parts (a) through (d) below. 40 trucks went out carrying early peaches; 71 carried late peaches; 52 carried extra late peaches; 26 carried early and late; 32 carried late and extra late; 11 carried early and extra late; 6 carried all three; 5 carried only figs (no peaches at all). a) How many trucks carried only late variety peaches? trucks (Type a whole number.) (b) How many carried only extra late? trucks (Type a whole number.) (c) How many carried only one type of peach? trucks (Type a whole number.) (d)How many trucks (in all) went out during the week? trucks (Type a whole number.)George Kyparisis owns a company that manufactures sailboats. Actual demand for George's sailboats during each of the past four seasons was as follows: Season 1 2 3 4Winter 1,400 1,240 1,080 920Spring 1,520 1,420 1,640 1,540Summer 1,000 2,140 2,040 1,960Fall 600 750 650 520 George has forecasted that annual demand for his sailboats in year 5 will equal 6,500 sailboats. Based on the given data and using the multiplicative seasonal model, the demand level for George's sailboats in the spring of year 5 will be nothing sailboats (enter a whole number).Toward the middle of the harvesting season, peaches for canning come in three types, early, late, and extra late, depending on the expected date of ripening. During a certain week, the data to the right were recorded at a fruit delivery station. Complete parts (a) through (d) below. 40 trucks went out carrying early peaches; 76 carried late peaches; 64 carried extra late peaches; 31 carried early and late; 34 carried late and extra late; 13 carried early and extra late; 6 carried all three; 8 carried only figs (no peaches at all). a. How many trucks carried only late variety peaches? b. How many carried only extra late? c. How many carried only one type of peach? d. How many trucks (in all) went out during the week? Thank you so much
- Suppose these data show the number of gallons of gasoline sold by a gasoline distributor in Bennington, Vermont, over the past 12 weeks. Week Sales (1,000sof gallons) 1 18 2 21 3 20 4 24 5 19 6 16 7 20 8 18 9 22 10 21 11 15 12 23 (a) Compute four-week and five-week moving averages for the time series.4-week moving average forecast & 5 week moving average forecast (b) Compute the MSE for the four-week moving average forecasts. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) Compute the MSE for the five-week moving average forecasts. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) c) What appears to be the best number of weeks of past data (three, four, or five) to use in the moving average computation? MSE for the three-week moving average is 12.22. Three weeks appears to be best, because the three-week moving average provides the smallest MSE .Three weeks appears to be best, because the three-week moving average provides the largest MSE. Four weeks appears…Table 1. The manager of Carpet City outlet store needs to be able to forecast accurately demand for Soft Shang carpet. Demand for the past 20 weeks appears in table 1 below. week Demand Forecast Error ABS. Dev Squared Error APE 1 20 2 28 3 22 4 18 5 22 6 22 7 22 8 26 9 23 10 23 11 23 12 27 13 25 14 22 15 23 16 14 17 14 18 15 19 11 20 16 21 22 23 24…Suppose these data show the number of gallons of gasoline sold by a gasoline distributor in Bennington, Vermont, over the past 12 weeks. Week Sales (1,000s of gallons) 1 18 2 22 3 20 4 24 5 19 6 16 7 21 8 19 9 22 10 20 11 15 12 23 (a) Compute four-week and five-week moving averages for the time series. Week Time Series Value 4-Week Moving Average Forecast 5-Week Moving Average Forecast 1 18 2 22 3 20 4 24 5 19 6 16 7 21 8 19 9 22 10 20 11 15 12 23 (b) Compute the MSE for the four-week moving average forecasts. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) Compute the MSE for the five-week moving average forecasts. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) (c) What appears to be the best number of weeks of past data (three, four, or
- Floyd Distributors, Inc., provides a variety of auto parts to small local garages. Floyd purchases parts from manufacturers according to the EOQ model and then ships the parts from a regional warehouse direct to its customers. For a particular type of muffler, Floyd's EOQ analysis recommends orders with Q* = 20 to satisfy an annual demand of 180 mufflers. Floyd's has 250 working days per year, and the lead time averages 15 days.Note: Use Appendix B to identify the areas for the standard normal distribution. What is the reorder point if Floyd assumes a constant demand rate? If required, round your answer up to the nearest whole number. r = fill in the blank 1 Suppose that an analysis of Floyd's muffler demand shows that the lead-time demand follows a normal probability distribution with µ = 12 and σ = 2.2. If Floyd's management can tolerate one stock-out per year, what is the revised reorder point? If required, round your answer up to the nearest whole number. r = fill in the blank…ch 11. 4 Oxnard Petro, Ltd., has three interdisciplinary project development teams that function on an ongoing basis. Team members rotate from time to time. Every 4 months (three times a year) each department head rates the performance of each project team (using a 0 to 100 scale, where 100 is the best rating). Are the main effects significant? Is there an interaction?Compute the forecasted values for Yt for July and August in 2020 by using the modelsstated in (c) and (d)