OPERATIONS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119448037
Author: Russell
Publisher: WILEY
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Chapter 12, Problem 15P
The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships coal. It has experienced the following demand for coal during the past eight years:
Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing model (α = .30, β = .20) and a linear trend line model, and compare the
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Alvin Cheah is a marketing analyst for Rockstar Travel Company. He wants to analyze the trend of international tourist arrival in Tawau by using international tourist arrival rate and flight delayed rate over the past 10 years as given in Table 2 below: (Hint: Provides your answers in two decimal points)
(i) Propose ONE (1) forecasting model that can be used by Alvin. Why would you proposed that particular model?
(ii) Develop the forecasting model that you suggest in (i). Briefly explain your model.
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The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships coal. It has experienced the following demand for coal during the past eight years:
Year Coal Sales (tonnes)
1 4260
2 4510
3 4050
4 3720
5 3900
6 3470
7 2890
8 3100
Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing model (α=0.30, β=0.20) and a linear trend line model, and compare the forecast accuracy of the two using MAD. Indicate which forecast seems to be most accurate.
Please use an exponential smoothing method with a=.3 and a 2011 forecast of 35 to forecast the mileage for 2013? Keep two decimal places.
Chapter 12 Solutions
OPERATIONS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
Ch. 12 - List some of the operations and functions in a...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between quantitative...Ch. 12 - Describe the difference between short- and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 4QCh. 12 - Why is accurate forecasting so important to...Ch. 12 - Discuss the relationship between forecasting and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 7QCh. 12 - Describe the Delphi method for forecasting.Ch. 12 - What is the difference between a trend and a cycle...Ch. 12 - How is the moving average method similar to...
Ch. 12 - In the chapter examples for time series methods,...Ch. 12 - What effect on the exponential smoothing model...Ch. 12 - How does adjusted exponential smoothing differ...Ch. 12 - What determines the choice of the smoothing...Ch. 12 - How does the linear trend line forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Of the time series models presented in this...Ch. 12 - What advantages does adjusted exponential...Ch. 12 - Describe how a forecast is monitored to detect...Ch. 12 - Explain the relationship between the use of a...Ch. 12 - Selecting from MAD, MAPD, MSE, E, and E, which...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between linear and multiple...Ch. 12 - Define the different components (y, x, a, and b)...Ch. 12 - A company that produces video equipment, including...Ch. 12 - The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the...Ch. 12 - The manager of the I-85 Carpet Outlet needs to be...Ch. 12 - The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes...Ch. 12 - Graph the demand data in Problem 12.3. Can you...Ch. 12 - The chairperson of the department of management at...Ch. 12 - The manager of the Excom Service Station wants to...Ch. 12 - The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had...Ch. 12 - The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum,...Ch. 12 - Mary Hernandez has invested in a stock mutual fund...Ch. 12 - Globetron manufactures components for use in small...Ch. 12 - The Bee Line Caf is well known for its popular...Ch. 12 - For the demand data in Problem 12.11, develop a...Ch. 12 - Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the...Ch. 12 - Backstreets Pizza delivery service has randomly...Ch. 12 - The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships...Ch. 12 - The Great Northwest Outdoor Company is a catalog...Ch. 12 - Townside Food Vending operates vending machines in...Ch. 12 - The town aquatic center has an indoor pool that...Ch. 12 - Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast...Ch. 12 - During the past five months the emergency room at...Ch. 12 - At its craft store and through its website, the...Ch. 12 - A group of business students at Tech organized a...Ch. 12 - Temco Industries has developed a forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Monitor the forecast in Problem 12.23 for bias...Ch. 12 - Develop a statistical control chart for the...Ch. 12 - Monitor the adjusted exponential smoothing...Ch. 12 - Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with =...
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