OPERATIONS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119448037
Author: Russell
Publisher: WILEY
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Textbook Question
Chapter 12, Problem 24P
Monitor the forecast in Problem 12.23 for bias using a tracking signal and a control chart with ±3 MAD. Does there appear to be any bias in the forecast?
Temco Industries has developed a
Measure the accuracy of the forecast using MAD, MAPD, and cumulative error. Does the forecast method appear to be accurate?
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1
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66
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2
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68
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3
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Click here for the Excel Data File
Compute MAD for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your answers to 1 decimal place.)
b. Compute the MSE for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)
c. In practice, either MAD or MSE would be employed to compute forecast errors. What factors might lead a manager to choose one rather than the other?
d. Compute MAPE for each data set. Which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)
Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table:
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Registrations (000)
5.00
6.00
3.00
5.00
10.00
8.00
8.00
9.00
11.00
16.00
17.00
Part 2
a) Calculate the forecasted registrations for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing, with a smoothing constant
(α)
of
0.40
and a starting forecast of
6.00
for year 1 (round your responses to one decimal
place):
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Forecast (000)
6.00
enter your response here
enter your response here
enter your response here
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Chapter 12 Solutions
OPERATIONS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
Ch. 12 - List some of the operations and functions in a...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between quantitative...Ch. 12 - Describe the difference between short- and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 4QCh. 12 - Why is accurate forecasting so important to...Ch. 12 - Discuss the relationship between forecasting and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 7QCh. 12 - Describe the Delphi method for forecasting.Ch. 12 - What is the difference between a trend and a cycle...Ch. 12 - How is the moving average method similar to...
Ch. 12 - In the chapter examples for time series methods,...Ch. 12 - What effect on the exponential smoothing model...Ch. 12 - How does adjusted exponential smoothing differ...Ch. 12 - What determines the choice of the smoothing...Ch. 12 - How does the linear trend line forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Of the time series models presented in this...Ch. 12 - What advantages does adjusted exponential...Ch. 12 - Describe how a forecast is monitored to detect...Ch. 12 - Explain the relationship between the use of a...Ch. 12 - Selecting from MAD, MAPD, MSE, E, and E, which...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between linear and multiple...Ch. 12 - Define the different components (y, x, a, and b)...Ch. 12 - A company that produces video equipment, including...Ch. 12 - The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the...Ch. 12 - The manager of the I-85 Carpet Outlet needs to be...Ch. 12 - The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes...Ch. 12 - Graph the demand data in Problem 12.3. Can you...Ch. 12 - The chairperson of the department of management at...Ch. 12 - The manager of the Excom Service Station wants to...Ch. 12 - The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had...Ch. 12 - The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum,...Ch. 12 - Mary Hernandez has invested in a stock mutual fund...Ch. 12 - Globetron manufactures components for use in small...Ch. 12 - The Bee Line Caf is well known for its popular...Ch. 12 - For the demand data in Problem 12.11, develop a...Ch. 12 - Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the...Ch. 12 - Backstreets Pizza delivery service has randomly...Ch. 12 - The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships...Ch. 12 - The Great Northwest Outdoor Company is a catalog...Ch. 12 - Townside Food Vending operates vending machines in...Ch. 12 - The town aquatic center has an indoor pool that...Ch. 12 - Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast...Ch. 12 - During the past five months the emergency room at...Ch. 12 - At its craft store and through its website, the...Ch. 12 - A group of business students at Tech organized a...Ch. 12 - Temco Industries has developed a forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Monitor the forecast in Problem 12.23 for bias...Ch. 12 - Develop a statistical control chart for the...Ch. 12 - Monitor the adjusted exponential smoothing...Ch. 12 - Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with =...
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